Luke Lashutka

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AMIA	1	0	2	4.50	1.60	33.3%	11.1%	—	K 33.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 1.69
2025	23	MIX2 levels	26	12	71	2.17	2.65	26.2%	7.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.50
2026	24	MIX2 levels	5	5	15	12.00	6.10	15.6%	13.0%	—	K 4.4% · BB 15.5% · FIP 8.64
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	10	10	60	5.13	5.13	15.8%	10.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBMIA	4	4	27	5.01	4.99	17.2%	10.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIA	6	6	39	4.97	4.98	17.6%	10.1%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsAlfonso Sanchez (age 27) · Jake Bray (age 25) · Colby Morris (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%15.8%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.69	—
2024	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.69	—
2024	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	1	0	2	9	3	1	0	0%	2.0	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.60	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	71	275	72	20	4	46%	2.7	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	1.8%	2.17	3.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	71	275	72	20	4	46%	2.7	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	1.8%	2.17	3.50	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	12	71	275	72	20	4	46%	2.7	26.2%	7.3%	18.9%	1.5%	2.17	2.65	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	15	77	12	10	3	100%	3.0	4.4%	15.5%	-11.0%	7.2%	12.00	8.64	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	15	77	12	10	3	100%	3.0	4.4%	15.5%	-11.0%	7.2%	12.00	8.64	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	15	77	12	10	3	100%	3.0	15.6%	13.0%	2.6%	3.9%	12.00	6.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	10	10	60	253	40	26	8	100%	6.0	15.8%	10.2%	5.6%	3.1%	5.13	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	64	269	46	27	8	100%	5.8	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	3.1%	5.01	4.99	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	63	264	47	27	8	100%	6.3	17.6%	10.1%	7.6%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	61	256	46	26	8	100%	6.1	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	3.2%	4.99	5.03	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	27	114	20	11	4	100%	6.8	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	3.1%	5.01	4.99	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	39	165	29	17	5	100%	6.5	17.6%	10.1%	7.6%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	46	194	35	20	6	100%	5.8	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	3.2%	4.99	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	19	112	474	83	48	15	100%	5.9	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.1%	4.99	4.62	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	85	27	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.1%	4.99	4.62	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		32	17	88	361	61	36	11	53%	2.7	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	2.9%	3.90	4.55	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	39	200	824	138	83	24	53%	2.7	16.8%	10.0%	6.8%	2.9%	3.90	4.55	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Lashutka (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	15.8%	10.2%	3.1%	—	5.00	17.5%	7.4%	187	-0.13	—	—	—
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	85
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	84
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	83
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	80
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	80
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	79
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	79
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	78
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	77
John Patterson R 2003 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	17.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.305	3.64	22.7%	15.5%	337	-0.80	2.90	454	77
Sergio Mitre R 2006 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	16.4%	9.0%	3.7%	.276	3.91	12.4%	6.8%	201	-0.98	3.55	602	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	62	17.1%	10.1%	1.21	5.02
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*