Samuel Gonzalez
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 21
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 81 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94
ERA4.07
FIP4.07
K%23.1%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP81
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 6 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 33% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 25.6% | -2.6% | 0.0% | 18.00 | 4.40 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 6 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 33% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 25.6% | -2.6% | 0.0% | 18.00 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 2 | 34 | 129 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 17% | 2.8 | 21.6% | 5.8% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 1.06 | 2.01 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 2 | 34 | 129 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 17% | 2.8 | 31.8% | 4.7% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 1.06 | 1.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 14 | 2 | 36 | 178 | 35 | 15 | 12 | 14% | 2.5 | 13.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 9.6% | 8.33 | 8.49 | -1.6 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 79 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.11 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 117 | 520 | 114 | 41 | 22 | — | — | 21.9% | 7.8% | 14.1% | 4.2% | 5.37 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 86 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.92 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 84 | 0 | 88 | 372 | 91 | 25 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.82 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 86 | 0 | 90 | 382 | 95 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.75 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 87 | 0 | 92 | 386 | 98 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 3.70 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 87 | 0 | 92 | 386 | 98 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 6.5% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.71 | 3.68 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 97 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 6.6% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 3.71 | 3.72 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 83 | 0 | 87 | 369 | 94 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 6.7% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 3.80 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 80 | 0 | 84 | 353 | 89 | 25 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 7.0% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 3.93 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 75 | 0 | 78 | 331 | 89 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 6.5% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 3.85 | 3.84 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 70 | 0 | 73 | 309 | 82 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 3.5% | 3.96 | 4.04 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 64 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 74 | 21 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 7.2% | 18.7% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.1% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 3.85 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 71 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 79 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.78 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 86 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.73 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 90 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 6.5% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.71 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 90 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 6.6% | 18.9% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 3.75 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 78 | 0 | 82 | 346 | 88 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 6.7% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.84 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 84 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 7.0% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 3.90 | 3.97 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 71 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 85 | 20 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 6.5% | 20.3% | 3.4% | 3.89 | 3.88 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 78 | 20 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 6.8% | 19.6% | 3.6% | 4.00 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 70 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 7.2% | 18.7% | 3.8% | 4.19 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 760 | 0 | 798 | 3371 | 858 | 227 | 104 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 6.7% | 18.7% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 3.50 | +17.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 215 | 57 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 6.7% | 18.7% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 6 | 76 | 346 | 61 | 36 | 17 | 19% | 2.4 | 17.7% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.83 | 5.61 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 16 | 200 | 915 | 162 | 94 | 45 | 19% | 2.4 | 17.7% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.83 | 5.61 | -0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Gonzalez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.07 | 23.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | — | 3.83 | 24.5% | 17.6% | 264 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| David Perez R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .292 | 5.13 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.20 | 3.93 | 151 | 88 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 85 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 85 |
| Adam Parks R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.76 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .356 | 3.96 | 24.1% | 16.7% | 64 | +0.20 | 3.26 | 137 | 84 |
| Parker Curry R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 84 |
| Edward Escoboza R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .321 | 5.42 | 14.9% | 9.4% | 36 | +1.53 | 3.44 | 213 | 83 |
| Ryan Watson R 2028 · 3.07 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.07 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .324 | 4.43 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 229 | +1.36 | 3.07 | 393 | 83 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 82 |
| Connor Brogdon R 2028 · 3.01 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.01 | 21.0% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .311 | 3.64 | 26.1% | 18.1% | 134 | +0.63 | 3.01 | 401 | 82 |
| Garrett McMillan R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.26 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 1.7% | .324 | 3.54 | 18.9% | 14.6% | 48 | +0.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 81 |
| Jacob Kisting R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.39 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 1.5% | .274 | 2.74 | 21.9% | 16.0% | 70 | -0.65 | 2.74 | 144 | 81 |
| Clark Beeker R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 81 |
| Fisher Jameson R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.66 | 16.9% | 6.4% | 2.1% | .312 | 6.31 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 58 | +2.65 | 3.66 | 157 | 80 |
| J.T. Hintzen R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.20 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 4.45 | 24.1% | 15.1% | 123 | +1.25 | 3.20 | 205 | 79 |
| Julian Garcia R 2028 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.15 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .314 | 5.03 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 177 | +1.88 | 1.61 | 328 | 79 |
| Ronald Dominguez R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.53 | 19.4% | 5.3% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.40 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 152 | -0.13 | 3.27 | 208 | 79 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 79 |
| Franco Aleman R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 79 |
| Sean Matson R 2028 · 3.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.23 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 1.3% | .267 | 2.83 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 32 | -0.40 | 2.83 | 119 | 79 |
| Matt Jachec R 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.29 | 25.8% | 6.8% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.71 | 22.0% | 13.4% | 48 | +0.42 | 3.29 | 120 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 84 | 25.2% | 6.8% | 1.16 | 3.87 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Collin McHugh ('23) | 8 | 99 | 23.6% | 6.8% | 0.93 | 3.60 |
| Ross Stripling ('24) | 9 | 94 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 1.32 | 4.17 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |