Samuel Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Samuel Gonzalez P Visalia Rawhide

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.90

FIP3.90

K%23.1%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%16.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD4055

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M
Totals		$11M		$23M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	6	2	6	39	9	10	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	25.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	18.00	4.40	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	6	2	6	39	9	10	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	25.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	18.00	4.40	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	6	2	6	39	9	10	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	25.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	18.00	5.10	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	2	34	129	41	6	0	17%	2.8	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	0.0%	1.06	2.01	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	2	34	129	41	6	0	17%	2.8	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	0.0%	1.06	2.01	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	12	2	34	129	41	6	0	17%	2.8	31.8%	4.7%	27.1%	0.0%	1.06	1.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	27	2	62	288	65	20	14	7%	2.3	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	7.2%	6.35	6.80	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	27	2	62	288	65	20	14	7%	2.3	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	7.2%	6.35	6.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	ARI	3	0	9	34	10	1	0	0%	3.0	29.4%	2.9%	26.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2026	21	A RAW	ARI	24	2	53	254	55	19	14	8%	2.2	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	5.5%	7.42	5.24	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	ARI	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	6.1%	16.9%	2.9%	3.90	3.90	+0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	68	313	71	22	15	—	—	22.6%	6.9%	15.7%	4.7%	6.14	6.55	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	81	0	85	359	86	21	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	5.9%	18.0%	2.8%	3.83	3.77	+0.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	84	0	88	372	91	21	10	0%	1.1	24.5%	5.7%	18.8%	2.8%	3.75	3.68	+0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	86	0	90	382	95	21	11	0%	1.1	25.0%	5.6%	19.4%	2.8%	3.68	3.61	+1.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	92	386	98	21	11	0%	1.1	25.3%	5.5%	19.8%	2.8%	3.62	3.57	+1.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	92	386	98	21	11	0%	1.1	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.8%	3.58	3.55	+1.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	86	0	90	380	97	21	11	0%	1.0	25.5%	5.6%	19.9%	2.8%	3.58	3.59	+1.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	83	0	87	369	94	21	11	0%	1.1	25.4%	5.7%	19.7%	2.9%	3.63	3.67	+0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	80	0	84	353	89	21	11	0%	1.0	25.1%	5.9%	19.2%	3.1%	3.73	3.80	+0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	75	0	78	331	89	18	11	0%	1.0	26.8%	5.4%	21.3%	3.3%	3.72	3.71	+0.8
2036	31	MLB MLE	ARI	70	0	73	309	82	18	11	0%	1.0	26.4%	5.8%	20.6%	3.5%	3.83	3.91	+0.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	ARI	64	0	68	286	74	18	11	0%	1.1	25.9%	6.2%	19.7%	3.8%	4.01	4.14	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	42	10	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	5.9%	18.0%	2.7%	3.74	3.68	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	61	0	64	270	66	15	7	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.7%	18.8%	2.7%	3.67	3.60	+0.7
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	71	0	75	317	79	18	8	0%	1.1	25.0%	5.6%	19.4%	2.6%	3.60	3.53	+0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	77	0	81	342	86	19	9	0%	1.1	25.3%	5.5%	19.8%	2.6%	3.54	3.49	+1.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	80	0	84	355	90	19	9	0%	1.1	25.5%	5.5%	20.0%	2.6%	3.50	3.47	+1.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	80	0	84	355	90	20	9	0%	1.1	25.5%	5.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.49	3.50	+1.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	78	0	82	346	88	20	10	0%	1.1	25.4%	5.7%	19.7%	2.8%	3.54	3.58	+0.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	75	0	79	334	84	20	10	0%	1.1	25.1%	5.9%	19.2%	2.9%	3.64	3.71	+0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	71	0	75	317	85	17	10	0%	1.1	26.8%	5.4%	21.3%	3.1%	3.62	3.61	+0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	ARI	67	0	70	296	78	17	10	0%	1.0	26.4%	5.8%	20.6%	3.3%	3.72	3.80	+0.5
2037	32	MLB CTX	ARI	61	0	64	270	70	17	10	0%	1.0	25.9%	6.2%	19.7%	3.5%	3.90	4.03	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		760	0	798	3371	858	192	96	0%	1.1	25.4%	5.7%	19.8%	2.9%	3.62	3.24	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	48	24	0%	1.1	25.4%	5.7%	19.8%	2.9%	3.62	3.24	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		45	6	102	456	83	43	21	13%	2.3	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	4.5%	5.28	5.24	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	12	200	891	162	84	40	13%	2.3	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	4.5%	5.28	5.24	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	23.1%	6.1%	2.9%	—	3.69	24.5%	18.8%	264	-0.21	—	—	—
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	85
Adam Parks R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	22	SU	3.76	21.4%	7.3%	2.8%	.356	4.11	24.1%	16.7%	64	+0.35	3.41	137	85
Ronald Dominguez R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	21	SU	3.28	19.4%	5.3%	2.1%	.273	3.35	17.4%	12.2%	152	+0.07	3.24	208	83
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	82
Davis Sharpe R 2022 · 3.24 FIP	22	SU	3.24	23.8%	4.6%	2.9%	.267	4.45	18.2%	10.9%	189	+1.21	3.24	260	82
Ryan Watson R 2021 · 3.11 FIP	23	SW	3.11	21.9%	6.8%	1.8%	.324	4.50	19.3%	10.6%	229	+1.39	3.11	412	81
Edward Escoboza R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	21	SU	3.89	21.9%	7.9%	3.0%	.321	5.42	14.9%	9.4%	36	+1.53	3.44	213	81
David Perez R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.19	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.19	4.00	151	81
Landon Harper R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	22	SU	3.68	17.2%	4.4%	2.7%	.299	4.46	18.3%	13.2%	185	+0.78	3.68	258	81
Sam Bragg R 2015 · 3.29 FIP	22	SU	3.29	23.2%	8.6%	1.9%	.306	3.97	15.7%	8.5%	203	+0.68	3.29	277	81
Connor Brogdon R 2018 · 2.98 FIP	23	SW	2.98	21.0%	6.8%	1.5%	.311	3.57	26.1%	18.1%	134	+0.59	2.98	401	80
Kender Villegas R 2016 · 3.26 FIP	23	SU	3.26	18.0%	5.0%	1.9%	.330	4.70	13.3%	0.0%	60	+1.44	3.26	131	79
Dusty Isaacs R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	23	SU	3.45	21.0%	6.2%	2.5%	.375	4.19	21.2%	11.1%	177	+0.74	3.16	253	79
J.B. Wendelken R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	23.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.288	3.85	27.2%	16.4%	124	+0.46	3.08	393	79
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	79
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	79
John Russell R 2018 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.76	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.78	3.94	158	79
Sam Delaplane R 2017 · 3.18 FIP	22	SU	3.18	24.6%	7.7%	2.1%	.342	2.86	32.7%	23.4%	128	-0.32	2.57	194	79
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	78
Tate Scioneaux R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	19.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.236	4.04	19.6%	13.5%	184	+0.32	3.12	321	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	84	25.2%	5.7%	1.16	3.73
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13