Kyle Roche
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%10.5%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 37 | 0 | 63 | 290 | 60 | 33 | 5 | 15.5% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 4.43 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 4 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 7 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 51 | 33 | 8 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 68 | 294 | 58 | 38 | 9 | 19.8% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 54 | 32 | 8 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.89 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 55 | 31 | 8 | 20.5% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 55 | 31 | 8 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 54 | 30 | 8 | 20.7% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.78 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 51 | 29 | 8 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 19.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 40 | 26 | 7 | 19.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 5.20 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 18.8% | 12.5% | 3.5% | 5.31 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 34 | 24 | 7 | 18.4% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 0 | 68 | 318 | 52 | 44 | 7 | 16.3% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.72 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 120 | 0 | 200 | 931 | 152 | 129 | 20 | 16.3% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.72 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Roche (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.81 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 191 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 96 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 94 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.14 | 4.44 | 100 | 92 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 92 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .237 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.44 | 4.56 | 120 | 91 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 90 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 124 | 90 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .287 | 3.96 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 143 | -0.28 | 3.84 | 206 | 90 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 89 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 89 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 89 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .278 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.05 | 3.49 | 237 | 89 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 89 |
| Jack Sinclair R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.92 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 3.4% | .258 | 4.01 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 121 | -0.91 | 2.86 | 245 | 88 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.90 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 37 | -0.84 | 3.90 | 132 | 88 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 88 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.15 | 172 | 88 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.69 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 4.63 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.06 | 4.58 | 151 | 88 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 88 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .283 | 4.53 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 111 | -0.03 | 3.33 | 223 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.