Kyle Roche — OGILVIE

Kyle Roche P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%14.7%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	63	290	60	33	5	0%	1.7	15.5%	13.3%	2.1%	2.2%	4.43	4.67	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	63	290	60	33	5	0%	1.7	15.5%	13.3%	2.1%	2.2%	4.43	4.67	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	63	290	60	33	5	0%	1.7	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	1.7%	4.43	3.80	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	47	0	67	307	59	36	6	0%	1.4	15.3%	12.4%	2.9%	2.6%	5.00	4.82	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	47	0	67	307	59	36	6	0%	1.4	15.3%	12.4%	2.9%	2.6%	5.00	4.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	LAA	45	0	63	287	57	31	6	0%	1.4	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	2.1%	5.03	3.94	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	LAA	2	0	4	20	2	5	0	0%	2.0	10.0%	25.0%	-15.0%	0.0%	4.50	5.42	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	26	4	4	1	0%	1.0	14.7%	14.9%	-0.3%	2.9%	5.70	5.70	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	73	333	63	40	7	—	—	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	2.0%	5.05	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	47	39	8	0%	1.0	16.4%	13.6%	2.8%	2.9%	5.46	5.39	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	65	0	68	287	50	38	8	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.31	5.27	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	283	50	37	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	2.9%	5.26	5.26	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	62	0	65	274	48	36	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.32	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	28	0	29	122	20	17	4	0%	1.0	16.4%	13.6%	2.8%	2.9%	5.46	5.39	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	43	0	45	190	33	25	5	0%	1.0	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.31	5.27	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	52	220	39	29	6	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	2.9%	5.26	5.26	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	52	0	55	232	41	30	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.1%	4.5%	3.0%	5.29	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	132	101	22	0%	1.1	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.31	4.92	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	112	24	0%	1.1	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.31	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		84	0	130	597	92	77	14	0%	1.5	15.4%	12.9%	2.5%	2.4%	4.72	4.75	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	921	142	118	22	0%	1.5	15.4%	12.9%	2.5%	2.4%	4.72	4.75	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Roche (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	14.7%	14.9%	2.9%	—	5.31	17.1%	3.8%	203	-0.39	—	—	—
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	92
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	89
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	88
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	87
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	87
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	87
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	86
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	86
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	86
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	85
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	85
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	85
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	85
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	85
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	84
Austin Pettibone R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	23	SU	5.11	14.6%	16.2%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	142	84
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	16.7%	13.6%	1.13	5.40
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78