Jake Shirk — OGILVIE

Jake Shirk P Altoona Curve

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%18.3%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	51	15	1	0%	1.4	16.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.6%	4.08	3.00	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	236	51	15	1	0%	1.4	16.2%	7.4%	8.8%	0.6%	4.08	3.00	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	57	236	51	15	1	0%	1.4	21.6%	6.4%	15.3%	0.4%	4.08	2.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	39	1	63	287	49	25	8	3%	1.6	12.7%	9.9%	2.8%	3.8%	6.18	5.35	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	39	1	63	287	49	25	8	3%	1.6	12.7%	9.9%	2.8%	3.8%	6.18	5.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PIT	6	0	8	32	9	2	0	0%	1.3	28.1%	6.2%	21.9%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2026	24	AA RAW	PIT	33	1	55	255	40	23	8	3%	1.7	15.7%	9.0%	6.7%	3.1%	7.08	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	59	0	62	263	51	20	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	7.7%	11.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.27	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	59	0	62	263	53	21	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	2.7%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	58	0	61	259	53	21	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.0%	12.5%	2.8%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	26	0	27	114	22	9	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	7.7%	11.8%	2.7%	4.31	4.27	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	40	0	42	177	36	14	5	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	2.7%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	46	0	48	203	41	16	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.0%	12.5%	2.8%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	0	116	492	99	39	13	0%	1.0	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	2.7%	4.28	3.88	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	67	22	0%	1.1	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	2.7%	4.28	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		80	1	120	523	75	46	12	1%	1.5	14.3%	8.8%	5.5%	2.3%	5.17	4.29	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	2	200	872	125	77	20	1%	1.5	14.3%	8.8%	5.5%	2.3%	5.17	4.29	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Shirk (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	18.3%	7.7%	2.7%	—	4.26	20.1%	12.3%	186	-0.11	—	—	—
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	95
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	93
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	92
Blake Goldsberry R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.267	4.51	23.6%	13.4%	75	+0.42	3.43	117	90
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	90
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	17.7%	7.4%	1.9%	.303	4.09	16.6%	9.3%	92	+0.48	3.44	198	89
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	89
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	89
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	89
Rob Griswold R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.8%	8.3%	3.2%	.244	4.34	12.5%	6.2%	144	-0.13	3.57	203	89
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	89
Nick Neumann R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	14.7%	7.0%	2.5%	.299	4.30	11.4%	3.9%	62	+0.21	3.68	107	88
Tyler Higgins R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	24	SU	3.53	15.9%	5.5%	2.0%	.289	3.97	15.6%	9.0%	168	+0.44	3.53	290	88
Joe Colón J R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	19.4%	7.4%	1.6%	.312	4.07	20.7%	7.8%	65	+0.80	3.27	113	88
Landon Beck R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	18.6%	8.6%	2.4%	.309	4.21	17.4%	8.7%	63	+0.30	3.53	186	88
Brian Glowicki R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.49	2.31	189	88
Dylan Hall R 2022 · 3.47 FIP	24	SU	3.47	19.0%	9.6%	1.4%	.305	5.75	17.8%	4.9%	107	+2.28	3.47	153	88
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	88
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	87
Ben Bracewell R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	24	SU	3.21	19.0%	6.3%	1.7%	.270	3.96	14.7%	7.4%	350	+0.75	3.21	538	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	19.8%	7.8%	1.05	4.30
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47