Jake Shirk
P
Altoona Curve
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116106vR 97
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
K%21.4%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.7%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 51 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 0.6% | 4.08 | 3.02 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 57 | 236 | 51 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.6% | 6.4% | 15.3% | 0.4% | 4.08 | 2.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 25 | 1 | 41 | 178 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 4% | 1.6 | 13.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 81 | 347 | 69 | 25 | 8 | — | — | 19.9% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 2.2% | 4.54 | 4.17 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 39 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 39 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 0 | 110 | 462 | 103 | 40 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 3.85 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 73 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 1 | 98 | 414 | 62 | 28 | 6 | 2% | 1.5 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 4.39 | 3.48 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 2 | 200 | 842 | 126 | 57 | 12 | 2% | 1.5 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 4.39 | 3.48 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Shirk (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.19 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 121 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 93 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 93 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 91 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 90 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 90 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 90 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 90 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 90 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 90 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.17 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.68 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 95 | +0.51 | 3.17 | 153 | 90 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 89 |
| Micah Dallas R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.96 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .273 | 3.95 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 80 | -0.01 | 3.57 | 178 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 88 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 88 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 88 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 88 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.38 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 20 | +0.10 | 4.28 | 195 | 88 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 1.5% | .305 | 6.14 | 17.8% | 4.9% | 107 | +2.60 | 3.54 | 153 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 40 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 1.06 | 4.22 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |