Griffin Tobias

P ACL Brewers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.4 · 2029

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	MIX2 levels	16	3	59	4.91	2.78	18.9%	3.5%	—	K 13.3% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.72
2026	21	ROKMIL	3	1	5	1.80	2.10	18.2%	4.5%	—	K 18.2% · BB 4.5% · FIP 2.14
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIL	39	0	41	4.15	4.15	19.3%	5.5%	0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIL	26	0	27	4.16	4.10	20.7%	5.5%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIL	37	0	39	4.09	4.03	21.4%	5.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsClark Beeker (age 23) · Scooter Hightower (age 21) · Nick Gallagher (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%19.3%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	59	259	49	9	4	19%	3.7	13.3%	4.1%	9.2%	2.2%	4.91	3.72	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	59	259	49	9	4	19%	3.7	13.3%	4.1%	9.2%	2.2%	4.91	3.72	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	3	59	259	49	9	4	19%	3.7	18.9%	3.5%	15.4%	1.5%	4.91	2.78	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	3	1	5	22	4	1	0	33%	1.7	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	0.0%	1.80	2.14	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	3	1	5	22	4	1	0	33%	1.7	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	0.0%	1.80	2.14	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	3	1	5	22	4	1	0	33%	1.7	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	0.0%	1.80	2.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIL	39	0	41	173	33	10	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	5.5%	13.8%	2.9%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	52	0	55	231	48	13	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	5.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.08	4.02	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	56	237	51	13	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	5.6%	15.8%	2.9%	4.01	3.95	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	57	240	53	14	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	5.7%	16.3%	2.9%	3.96	3.92	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	54	0	57	240	53	14	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	2.9%	3.93	3.90	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	53	0	56	236	52	14	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	5.8%	16.4%	2.9%	3.94	3.94	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	26	0	27	114	24	6	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.5%	15.1%	3.0%	4.16	4.10	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	37	0	39	165	35	9	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	5.6%	15.8%	3.0%	4.09	4.03	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	44	0	46	194	43	11	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	5.7%	16.3%	3.0%	4.04	4.00	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	48	0	50	211	47	12	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	3.0%	4.01	3.98	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	49	0	51	215	48	12	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	5.8%	16.4%	3.1%	4.02	4.02	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	0	213	898	196	51	27	0%	1.1	21.8%	5.7%	16.1%	3.0%	4.05	3.64	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	48	25	0%	1.1	21.8%	5.7%	16.1%	3.0%	4.05	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		19	4	64	281	39	12	6	21%	3.4	13.7%	4.2%	9.5%	2.1%	4.66	3.60	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	13	200	883	121	37	18	21%	3.4	13.7%	4.2%	9.5%	2.1%	4.66	3.60	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Tobias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	19.3%	5.5%	2.9%	—	3.96	21.4%	15.8%	168	-0.19	—	—	—
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	90
Scooter Hightower R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	21	SW	3.23	18.7%	4.4%	2.1%	.304	2.86	19.6%	14.6%	68	-0.37	2.86	160	88
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	85
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	85
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	85
Christian Taugner R 2017 · 3.07 FIP	22	SW	3.07	17.0%	5.0%	1.4%	.364	4.20	12.4%	6.1%	260	+1.13	3.07	305	84
Jake Westbrook R 2001 · 3.62 FIP	23	SW	3.62	16.6%	6.2%	2.1%	.335	4.18	11.7%	4.3%	390	+0.56	3.62	1,741	83
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	83
Ryan Watson R 2021 · 3.11 FIP	23	SW	3.11	21.9%	6.8%	1.8%	.324	4.48	19.6%	10.9%	229	+1.37	3.11	416	83
Ian Koenig R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	22	SU	3.69	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.34	15.0%	7.6%	295	+1.65	3.69	314	82
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	82
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	81
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	80
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	80
Gabe Friese R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	15.8%	3.0%	2.7%	.282	4.71	10.3%	3.2%	61	+1.07	3.64	115	80
Chris Murphy R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	22	SW	3.24	15.2%	3.3%	1.8%	.304	4.96	9.5%	3.7%	95	+1.72	3.24	115	80
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	79
William Fleming R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	22	SW	4.12	22.6%	4.9%	4.2%	.267	5.08	13.2%	4.0%	334	+0.96	4.02	449	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.08	18.4%	12.2%	324	+0.88	4.20	474	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	21.4%	5.6%	1.12	4.00
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dale Thayer ('15)	1.3	63	20.4%	6.3%	1.07	3.47
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*