William Fleming
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.88
FIP4.88
K%13.0%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 2 | 22 | 85 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 22% | 2.4 | 22.6% | 4.9% | 17.7% | 5.0% | 3.27 | 4.56 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 2 | 22 | 85 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 22% | 2.4 | 31.8% | 4.7% | 27.1% | 2.4% | 3.27 | 2.37 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 122 | 532 | 98 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 4.9 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.00 | 5.86 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 122 | 532 | 98 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 107 | 467 | 91 | 34 | 9 | 83% | 4.7 | 15.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.39 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 107 | 467 | 91 | 34 | 9 | 83% | 4.7 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 4.11 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 105 | 490 | 60 | 46 | 13 | 74% | 3.9 | 10.1% | 10.3% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 7.22 | 5.45 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 105 | 490 | 60 | 46 | 13 | 74% | 3.9 | 12.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 7.22 | 4.89 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 9 | 60 | 293 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 32% | 2.1 | 15.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 6.60 | 3.92 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 9 | 60 | 293 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 32% | 2.1 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 6.60 | 3.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 20 | 0 | 29 | 142 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.7% | 11.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 7.36 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 38 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 99 | 438 | 62 | 36 | 13 | — | — | 14.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.61 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 40 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 39 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 38 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.58 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 121 | 67 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 132 | 75 | 446 | 2009 | 279 | 178 | 73 | 57% | 3.4 | 13.9% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 5.04 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 34 | 200 | 902 | 125 | 80 | 33 | 57% | 3.4 | 13.9% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 5.04 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| William Fleming (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 13.0% | 7.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.95 | 14.1% | 6.4% | 133 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 85 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 85 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 84 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 83 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 82 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 82 |
| Donovan Hand R 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.29 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.01 | 4.29 | 237 | 81 |
| Zeke Spruill R 2024 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 114 | 80 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 80 |
| Kurt Heyer R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.03 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 178 | 80 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 80 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 80 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 80 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 80 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.50 | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.84 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 50 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 209 | 79 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 79 |
| Colin Bates R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 79 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 78 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 78 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 1.16 | 4.90 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |