William Fleming
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.0%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%8.7%
IP76
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL6565
CMD5050
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 9 | 2 | 22 | 85 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 22.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.27 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 25 | 25 | 122 | 532 | 98 | 42 | 18 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 5.00 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 23 | 19 | 107 | 467 | 91 | 34 | 9 | 15.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.19 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 27 | 20 | 105 | 490 | 60 | 46 | 13 | 10.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 7.22 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 28 | 9 | 60 | 293 | 53 | 20 | 7 | 15.3% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 6.60 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 50 | 24 | 9 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 76 | 322 | 51 | 24 | 9 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 52 | 24 | 9 | 16.5% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 52 | 24 | 9 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 51 | 24 | 9 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.75 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 49 | 24 | 9 | 16.9% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 43 | 23 | 9 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 40 | 22 | 9 | 16.0% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 37 | 21 | 8 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 5.15 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 33 | 20 | 8 | 15.2% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 5.28 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 113 | 75 | 417 | 1870 | 260 | 162 | 63 | 13.9% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 5.46 | 4.86 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 36 | 200 | 896 | 125 | 78 | 30 | 13.9% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 5.46 | 4.86 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| William Fleming (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.72 | 16.8% | 8.8% | 218 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 95 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.04 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.38 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.34 | 4.04 | 101 | 92 |
| David Martinez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.95 | 14.2% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.75 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 230 | +0.80 | 3.95 | 297 | 89 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.46 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.13 | 4.33 | 125 | 89 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 89 |
| John Church R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.85 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .278 | 2.78 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 30 | -1.07 | 2.78 | 101 | 88 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 87 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 87 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 87 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 86 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.51 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .306 | 4.05 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 66 | +0.54 | 3.51 | 134 | 85 |
| Ronnie Shaban R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.37 | 14.1% | 5.3% | 3.3% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 104 | 85 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 84 |
| Troy Neiman R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 199 | 84 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.80 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .301 | 3.96 | 26.2% | 21.8% | 50 | -0.84 | 3.31 | 213 | 84 |
| Derek Self R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.89 | 11.9% | 6.7% | 3.5% | .273 | 4.68 | 14.5% | 10.7% | 131 | -0.21 | 3.85 | 302 | 84 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 84 |
| Tristan Archer R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.69 | 18.0% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .286 | 5.08 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 30 | +1.39 | 2.44 | 321 | 83 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 83 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.