William Fleming

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	20	105	7.22	4.89	12.2%	9.4%	—	K 10.1% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.31
2025	26	MIX3 levels	28	9	60	6.60	3.85	18.1%	6.8%	—	K 15.0% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.02
2026	27	AAMIN	28	0	40	6.13	4.61	16.7%	10.2%	—	K 13.5% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.15
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIN	1	0	1	5.10	5.10	13.1%	8.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBMIN	14	0	15	5.10	5.15	13.9%	8.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBMIN	19	0	20	5.17	5.26	14.2%	9.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control65Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRamon Delgado (age 29) · Dennis O'Grady (age 26) · Josh Roeder (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%13.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	2	22	85	27	4	2	22%	2.4	22.6%	4.9%	17.7%	4.2%	3.27	4.12	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	2	22	85	27	4	2	22%	2.4	31.8%	4.7%	27.1%	2.4%	3.27	2.37	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	532	98	42	18	100%	4.9	13.9%	9.2%	4.6%	4.6%	5.00	5.62	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	122	532	98	42	18	100%	4.9	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	3.4%	5.00	4.44	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	107	467	91	34	9	83%	4.7	15.3%	8.2%	7.1%	2.5%	4.11	4.24	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	107	467	91	34	9	83%	4.7	19.5%	7.3%	12.2%	1.9%	4.11	3.44	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	105	490	60	46	13	74%	3.9	10.1%	10.0%	0.0%	3.3%	7.22	5.31	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	105	490	60	46	13	74%	3.9	10.1%	10.0%	0.0%	3.3%	7.22	5.31	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	105	490	60	46	13	74%	3.9	12.2%	9.4%	2.9%	2.7%	7.22	4.89	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	9	60	293	53	20	7	32%	2.1	15.0%	6.2%	8.8%	2.6%	6.60	4.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	9	60	293	53	20	7	32%	2.1	15.0%	6.2%	8.8%	2.6%	6.60	4.02	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	9	60	293	53	20	7	32%	2.1	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	2.4%	6.60	3.85	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	28	0	40	186	31	19	5	0%	1.4	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	3.2%	6.13	5.15	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	28	0	40	186	31	19	5	0%	1.4	13.5%	11.2%	2.3%	3.2%	6.13	5.15	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	28	0	40	186	31	19	5	0%	1.4	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	2.7%	6.13	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	13.1%	8.6%	4.5%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	44	0	47	197	27	17	6	0%	1.1	13.9%	8.8%	5.0%	3.1%	5.10	5.15	-0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIN	38	0	39	166	24	15	6	0%	1.0	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	3.3%	5.17	5.26	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	14	0	15	63	9	6	2	0%	1.1	13.9%	8.8%	5.0%	3.1%	5.10	5.15	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	12	8	3	0%	1.1	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	3.3%	5.17	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	147	21	13	5	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.0%	5.0%	3.2%	5.14	4.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	121	75	29	0%	1.1	14.1%	9.0%	5.0%	3.2%	5.14	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		140	75	456	2053	283	180	69	54%	3.3	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	3.4%	5.53	4.90	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	33	200	900	124	79	30	54%	3.3	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	3.4%	5.53	4.90	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 40 IPFIP 4.46 → 5.15 (+0.69)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.22%	—	×1.100	11.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.46 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 41 IPFIP 3.56 → 3.60 (+0.04)K% 19.3% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.27%	—	×0.860	16.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.21%	—	×0.900	4.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.204	×1.100	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 14 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.03 (+0.73)K% 14.8% → 11.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.81%	—	×0.770	11.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.150	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷1.036	×1.250	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 4 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.82 (+0.51)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.100	16.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.800	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 84 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.53 (+0.73)K% 11.1% → 9.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.14%	—	×0.810	9.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.87%	—	×1.100	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷0.920	×1.200	3.30%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 21 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.43 (+0.09)K% 16.8% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.84%	—	×0.860	14.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.37%	—	×0.900	6.63%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷1.111	×1.100	3.13%

Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 60 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.49 (+0.66)K% 20.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.46%	—	×0.770	15.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.56%	—	×1.150	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.033	×1.250	1.40%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 48 IPFIP 4.18 → 5.17 (+0.99)K% 18.3% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.27%	—	×0.810	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.17%	—	×1.100	8.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.872	×1.200	3.97%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
William Fleming (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	13.1%	8.6%	3.0%	—	5.20	14.0%	5.0%	86	+0.10	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	81
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	80
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	79
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	79
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	78
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Nelson Figueroa R 2002 · 5.41 FIP	28	SW	5.41	12.4%	7.5%	4.4%	.250	5.52	12.5%	4.6%	64	+0.11	3.71	499	77
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	77
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	77
Ivan Zavala R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP-	4.51	7.0%	4.7%	2.6%	.312	4.73	12.2%	4.3%	50	+0.22	4.27	209	77
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	77
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	77
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	77
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	76
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	76
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	13.6%	8.8%	1.21	5.12
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*