Jose Guzman

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 144 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Tigers 1	17	27	5.00	3.17	15.4%	3.4%	—	K 10.5% · BB 4.3% · FIP 3.17
2026	21	ADET	38	56	2.41	2.87	23.7%	8.0%	—	K 17.5% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.78
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	30	32	4.51	4.51	18.9%	8.5%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	25	26	4.40	4.34	20.4%	8.3%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBDET	35	37	4.31	4.24	21.2%	8.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMatt Pidich (age 23) · Heath Holder (age 23) · Devon Roedahl (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%18.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	17	0	27	117	18	4	2	0%	1.6	10.5%	4.3%	6.2%	0.7%	5.00	3.17	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	17	0	27	117	18	4	2	0%	1.6	10.5%	4.3%	6.2%	0.7%	5.00	3.17	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	17	0	27	117	18	4	2	0%	1.6	15.4%	3.4%	12.0%	1.7%	5.00	3.17	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	38	0	56	224	53	18	3	0%	1.5	17.5%	9.5%	8.0%	1.7%	2.41	3.78	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	38	0	56	224	53	18	3	0%	1.5	17.5%	9.5%	8.0%	1.7%	2.41	3.78	—
2026	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	38	0	56	224	53	18	3	0%	1.5	23.7%	8.0%	15.6%	1.3%	2.41	2.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	30	0	32	135	26	12	4	0%	1.1	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	52	221	45	18	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	2.8%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	51	0	54	226	48	18	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.24	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	52	0	54	229	50	18	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	2.8%	4.24	4.19	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	52	0	54	229	50	18	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.8%	4.20	4.17	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	51	0	54	226	50	18	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.1%	13.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.21	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	25	0	26	110	22	9	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	2.8%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	35	0	37	156	33	13	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.24	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	42	0	44	186	40	15	5	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	2.8%	4.24	4.19	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	45	0	47	198	44	16	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.8%	4.20	4.17	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	46	0	48	203	44	16	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.1%	13.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	0	203	857	185	69	24	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.1%	13.5%	2.8%	4.26	3.84	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	68	24	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.1%	13.5%	2.8%	4.26	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		55	0	83	341	51	26	5	0%	1.5	15.1%	7.7%	7.4%	1.4%	3.25	3.57	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	0	200	822	124	63	11	0%	1.5	15.1%	7.7%	7.4%	1.4%	3.25	3.57	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	18.9%	8.5%	2.8%	—	4.26	21.1%	13.0%	160	-0.25	—	—	—
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	92
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	90
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.46	483	90
Alex Burnett R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	17.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.311	3.80	12.9%	5.3%	122	-0.57	3.68	170	90
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	89
Jose Geraldo R 2022 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	18.9%	9.9%	2.0%	.337	4.47	19.0%	9.9%	49	+0.62	3.14	154	89
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	89
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	89
RJ Petit R 2022 · 4.43 FIP	22	SU	4.43	20.3%	8.4%	3.6%	.270	3.43	22.4%	12.9%	177	-1.00	3.06	231	89
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Andrés Núñez R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	22	SU	3.42	18.0%	8.6%	1.4%	.269	3.43	22.5%	15.3%	128	+0.01	2.73	259	88
Jacob Bodner R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	22	SU	3.40	19.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.281	3.35	22.1%	12.4%	98	-0.05	2.93	124	88
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	88
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	88
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	88
Kyle Whitten R 2022 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	17.2%	7.0%	3.2%	.264	4.69	18.0%	8.3%	85	+0.37	4.32	152	88
Aaron Brooks R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	15.2%	7.3%	2.5%	.314	3.54	13.7%	6.0%	77	-0.55	3.54	109	88
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	88
Mike Foltynewicz R 2014 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	16.7%	8.3%	3.7%	.333	4.20	20.8%	12.6%	448	-0.56	3.17	957	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	50	21.2%	8.1%	1.08	4.30
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*