Mitch Mueller

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ROKMIN	5	11	1.59	1.16	30.4%	4.3%	—	K 30.4% · BB 4.3% · FIP 1.08
2026	24	MIX3 levels	44	63	4.45	3.29	30.4%	8.5%	—	K 23.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	42	44	4.50	4.50	23.3%	9.6%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBMIN	24	25	4.47	4.46	23.5%	9.5%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIN	33	35	4.48	4.49	23.5%	9.6%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsScott Dohmann (age 26) · Jason Stoffel (age 26) · Grant Balfour (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%23.3%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	11	46	14	2	0	0%	2.3	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	0.0%	1.59	1.08	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	5	0	11	46	14	2	0	0%	2.3	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	0.0%	1.59	1.08	—
2025	23	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	5	0	11	46	14	2	0	0%	2.3	30.4%	4.3%	26.1%	0.0%	1.59	1.16	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	63	260	79	22	8	0%	1.4	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.8%	4.45	4.42	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	63	260	79	22	8	0%	1.4	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	3.8%	4.45	4.42	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	63	260	79	22	8	0%	1.4	30.4%	8.5%	21.9%	3.1%	4.45	3.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	42	0	44	186	43	18	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.6%	13.8%	3.2%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	54	0	56	238	56	23	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.46	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	53	0	56	235	55	22	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	3.3%	4.48	4.49	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	24	0	25	106	25	10	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.46	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	33	0	35	148	35	14	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.6%	14.0%	3.3%	4.48	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	253	60	24	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	3.2%	4.48	4.10	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	80	27	0%	1.1	23.5%	9.5%	14.0%	3.2%	4.48	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		49	0	74	306	75	27	10	0%	1.5	24.5%	8.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.01	3.92	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	827	203	73	27	0%	1.5	24.5%	8.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.01	3.92	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitch Mueller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	23.3%	9.6%	3.2%	—	4.47	23.5%	14.0%	112	-0.03	—	—	—
Scott Dohmann R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	26	SU	4.44	24.7%	9.6%	4.0%	.270	4.80	20.6%	8.5%	112	+0.36	4.28	173	90
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	90
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	89
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	89
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	89
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	89
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	89
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	88
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	88
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	88
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	88
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	88
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	87
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	87
Darin Gillies R 2018 · 4.81 FIP	25	SU	4.81	22.2%	10.2%	4.2%	.294	4.83	23.2%	12.8%	106	+0.02	4.22	295	87
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	87
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	87
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	23.5%	9.6%	1.25	4.48
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*