Garrett Gainey
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 120
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%17.0%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.69 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 34 | 12 | 88 | 347 | 81 | 21 | 6 | 35% | 2.6 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 3.39 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 34 | 12 | 88 | 347 | 81 | 21 | 6 | 35% | 2.6 | 23.3% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 1.7% | 3.39 | 2.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 16 | 9 | 53 | 238 | 55 | 17 | 10 | 56% | 3.3 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 5.81 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 123 | 534 | 105 | 36 | 19 | — | — | 19.7% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.0% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.05 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 51 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 51 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 49 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 34 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 110 | 465 | 83 | 33 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.18 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 60 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 21 | 142 | 591 | 105 | 40 | 21 | 41% | 2.8 | 17.7% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.38 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 30 | 200 | 830 | 147 | 57 | 29 | 41% | 2.8 | 17.7% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Gainey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.54 | 17.9% | 10.8% | 200 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .264 | 5.63 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.74 | 3.12 | 451 | 80 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 80 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.39 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.2% | .270 | 5.11 | 12.6% | 1.9% | 129 | +1.72 | 3.39 | 261 | 80 |
| Nico Tellache L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 80 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 78 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 77 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 76 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 75 |
| Ryan Kellogg L 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.05 | 12.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | .359 | 4.23 | 12.3% | 7.1% | 64 | +0.18 | 3.65 | 446 | 75 |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 73 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 73 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 72 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 72 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 72 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 135 | 71 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 71 |
| Ethan Flanagan L 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.23 | 21.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 102 | 70 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 258 | 70 |
| Frank Garces L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.13 | 16.9% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .317 | 4.56 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 132 | +0.43 | 4.13 | 306 | 70 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 1.17 | 4.48 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |