Garrett Gainey
P
Bowling Green Hot Rods
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%13.4%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 34 | 12 | 88 | 347 | 81 | 21 | 6 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 3.39 | 3.57 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 3 | 2 | 10 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 4 | — | — | — | 7.20 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 73 | 314 | 67 | 24 | 12 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.66 | 3.68 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 57 | 22 | 8 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TB | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 55 | 22 | 8 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TB | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TB | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TB | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TB | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TB | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 39 | 19 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TB | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 14 | 100 | 401 | 72 | 23 | 12 | 18.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 3.88 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 28 | 200 | 805 | 144 | 46 | 24 | 18.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Gainey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.31 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 184 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 96 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 91 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 88 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .282 | 4.14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.64 | 3.50 | 300 | 88 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 88 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 86 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 86 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .257 | 4.72 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 127 | +0.81 | 2.70 | 655 | 85 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.54 | 19.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .311 | 3.91 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 158 | +0.37 | 2.79 | 325 | 85 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .240 | 3.29 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 184 | -0.21 | 2.82 | 414 | 84 |
| Jason Gurka L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.14 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.27 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.91 | 183 | 84 |
| Carson Skipper L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 84 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 84 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 84 |
| Patrick Schuster L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.42 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 160 | 84 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | .259 | 3.84 | 16.6% | 6.3% | 30 | -1.00 | 1.71 | 206 | 84 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 84 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.15 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 1.0% | .316 | 4.60 | 12.2% | 5.5% | 305 | +1.45 | 3.15 | 430 | 83 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.7M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $6M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.