Garrett Gainey — OGILVIE

Garrett Gainey P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%17.0%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	12	88	347	81	21	6	35%	2.6	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	2.2%	3.39	3.56	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	12	88	347	81	21	6	35%	2.6	17.6%	6.0%	11.6%	2.2%	3.39	3.56	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	12	88	347	81	21	6	35%	2.6	23.3%	6.1%	17.3%	1.7%	3.39	2.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	28	10	70	312	75	23	13	36%	2.5	18.5%	8.5%	10.0%	5.2%	5.56	5.47	—
YTD	26	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	28	10	70	312	75	23	13	36%	2.5	18.5%	8.5%	10.0%	5.2%	5.56	5.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	TB	28	10	70	312	75	23	13	36%	2.5	24.0%	7.4%	16.7%	4.2%	5.56	4.29	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	TB	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	17.0%	5.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.36	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	76	339	80	25	14	—	—	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	4.1%	5.46	5.38	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TB	74	0	78	328	58	21	10	0%	1.1	17.7%	6.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.39	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	TB	72	0	75	318	57	21	10	0%	1.0	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.47	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TB	69	0	72	304	55	21	10	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.1%	10.9%	3.2%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	TB	64	0	68	286	51	21	10	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.4%	10.4%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TB	27	0	28	118	21	8	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	6.3%	11.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.39	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TB	42	0	44	186	33	12	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.47	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TB	49	0	51	215	39	15	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.1%	10.9%	3.2%	4.53	4.59	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	TB	50	0	53	224	40	17	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	7.4%	10.4%	3.4%	4.67	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	0	176	745	133	52	23	0%	1.1	17.9%	7.0%	10.9%	3.2%	4.52	4.20	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	59	26	0%	1.1	17.9%	7.0%	10.9%	3.2%	4.52	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		63	22	159	665	120	47	24	35%	2.5	18.0%	7.1%	10.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	28	200	835	151	59	30	35%	2.5	18.0%	7.1%	10.9%	3.6%	4.29	4.44	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Gainey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	17.0%	5.9%	2.9%	—	4.48	17.9%	11.2%	225	+0.12	—	—	—
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	80
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	78
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	77
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	75
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	75
Samuel Strickland L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	24	SW	4.87	19.5%	7.3%	4.5%	.337	3.53	20.1%	14.4%	148	-1.34	2.91	292	74
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	74
Ryan Kellogg L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.4%	5.8%	2.2%	.359	4.33	12.3%	7.1%	64	+0.34	3.65	446	74
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	22.6%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.87	28.1%	21.0%	138	-1.67	2.21	409	72
David Speer L 2019 · 4.06 FIP	26	SU	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	2.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	293	72
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	71
Colton Turner L 2017 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	19.6%	5.4%	2.6%	.311	3.84	21.9%	13.0%	158	+0.29	2.79	325	71
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	71
Robby Scott L 2016 · 3.73 FIP	26	SW	3.73	21.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.235	4.29	24.7%	12.6%	132	+0.56	2.39	285	71
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	70
Danny Garcia L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	225	70
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	70
Christian Torres L 2018 · 3.34 FIP	24	SW	3.34	15.4%	7.9%	1.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	172	70
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	69
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	73	17.7%	6.7%	1.18	4.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57