Griffin Kirn — OGILVIE

Griffin Kirn P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%21.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	34	12	4	0	0%	1.3	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	1.12	1.61	—
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	34	12	4	0	0%	1.3	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	1.12	1.61	—
2025	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	34	12	4	0	0%	1.3	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	1.12	1.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	37	0	53	221	45	17	5	0%	1.4	15.4%	8.9%	6.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.50	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	37	0	53	221	45	17	5	0%	1.4	15.4%	8.9%	6.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	OAK	13	0	20	84	19	7	1	0%	1.5	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	1.2%	1.80	2.90	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	OAK	24	0	33	137	26	10	4	0%	1.4	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	2.9%	6.34	4.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	50	0	52	220	48	20	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	50	0	52	220	49	20	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	4.38	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	49	0	51	217	48	19	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	21	0	22	93	20	8	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.44	4.41	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	33	0	35	148	33	13	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.8%	13.2%	3.0%	4.40	4.38	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	38	0	40	169	37	15	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	0	97	409	90	36	12	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.02	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	74	25	0%	1.1	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		43	0	61	255	46	24	6	0%	1.4	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	2.5%	4.15	4.11	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	0	200	841	152	78	21	0%	1.4	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	2.5%	4.15	4.11	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Kirn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	21.1%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.40	22.0%	13.1%	156	-0.09	—	—	—
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	87
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	87
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	86
Haylen Green L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	16.9%	8.1%	2.4%	.291	4.09	18.6%	7.8%	49	+0.07	4.02	104	86
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	86
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.2%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	85
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	85
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	85
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	84
Kirby Snead L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	20.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.318	3.10	24.6%	15.6%	98	-0.93	2.12	388	84
Billy Strode L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	17.6%	8.8%	1.7%	.306	2.85	16.0%	7.3%	47	-0.79	2.53	155	84
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	84
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	84
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	83
Dylan Lee L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	19.5%	8.5%	3.4%	.277	2.62	29.0%	25.0%	113	-1.79	1.96	547	83
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	83
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	83
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	83
Trevor Lane L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	21.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.360	3.10	21.2%	12.6%	91	-0.46	2.13	246	83
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	21.8%	8.9%	1.16	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97