Gregori Arias

SS DSL Miami

Age 20 S/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#919ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Miami	229	.227/.414/.343	2	23	40	—	.140/.295/.199
2026	19	ROKDSL Miami	133	.189/.348/.349	4	14	19	—	.115/.242/.204
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBMIA	243	.201/.285/.285	2	8	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBMIA	42	.201/.284/.290	1	1	70	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBMIA	103	.205/.289/.305	2	4	75	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2024 Rk

BB%91

Speed91

wOBA76

wRC+73

ISO65

Chase%50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsÓscar Mercado (age 20) · Daz Cameron (age 20) · Gregory Polanco (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .282

PA69

HR1

K%29

BB%9

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	229	172	39	8	3	2	47	69	8	23	7	227	414	343	757	116	366	30	21	356	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	133	106	20	3	1	4	21	38	5	14	1	189	348	349	698	160	250	29	16	323	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	229	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	151	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	245	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	229	172	39	8	3	2	47	69	8	23	7	227	414	343	757	116	366	30	21	356	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	169	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	133	106	20	3	1	4	21	38	5	14	1	189	348	349	698	160	250	29	16	323	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	229	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	151	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	229	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	151	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	243	216	43	7	2	2	21	70	4	8	1	201	285	285	569	83	284	29	9	263	64	-10	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	122	108	23	4	1	2	11	35	2	4	1	207	290	303	593	96	286	29	9	272	70	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	212	188	40	7	2	3	19	59	3	8	1	212	295	319	613	107	287	28	9	280	75	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	307	272	59	10	2	6	27	85	5	11	2	216	298	331	630	116	289	28	9	286	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	380	337	74	12	3	8	34	104	6	14	2	219	301	342	643	123	290	27	9	291	83	-8	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	421	375	83	14	3	9	37	114	6	15	3	222	303	350	653	128	290	27	9	295	86	-7	+2	+0	+5	+9	0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	444	395	88	15	3	10	40	120	6	16	3	222	303	353	656	131	290	27	9	296	86	-7	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	453	404	89	15	3	10	40	123	6	16	3	221	303	350	653	129	290	27	9	295	86	-8	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	453	404	89	15	3	10	40	124	6	16	3	220	301	346	647	126	289	27	9	292	84	-9	+2	-1	+5	+10	0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	445	397	85	14	3	9	39	123	6	15	3	217	298	340	638	123	288	28	9	289	81	-10	+2	-1	+5	+10	0.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	435	388	84	14	3	9	38	122	6	14	3	214	295	333	627	118	286	28	9	284	79	-11	+2	-2	+5	+9	0.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	418	374	79	13	3	8	36	119	5	13	3	211	290	323	613	113	283	28	9	279	75	-13	+1	-3	+4	+9	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	42	37	7	1	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	201	284	290	575	90	277	29	10	265	70	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	103	91	19	3	1	2	9	29	2	4	1	205	289	305	594	100	278	28	9	272	75	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	166	148	31	5	1	3	15	46	2	6	1	209	292	317	609	108	280	28	9	278	80	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	211	187	40	6	2	4	19	58	3	8	1	212	295	327	622	115	281	27	9	283	83	-4	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	236	210	45	7	2	5	21	64	3	9	2	215	296	335	631	120	281	27	9	286	86	-4	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	250	222	48	8	2	5	22	68	4	9	2	215	297	338	635	123	281	27	9	287	86	-4	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	251	223	47	7	2	5	22	68	4	9	2	214	296	335	631	121	280	27	9	286	86	-4	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	248	221	47	7	2	5	22	68	3	9	2	212	294	331	625	118	280	27	9	284	84	-5	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	238	212	45	7	2	5	21	66	3	8	2	210	292	325	617	115	279	28	9	280	81	-5	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	229	204	43	7	2	4	20	64	3	8	2	208	288	318	607	111	277	28	9	276	79	-6	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	218	194	39	6	1	4	19	62	3	7	2	204	284	309	593	106	274	28	9	271	75	-7	+1	-1	+2	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2192	1949	411	64	17	43	194	605	31	78	17	211	293	327	620	116	281	28	9	281	77	-48	+9	-4	+23	+47	2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	122	19	5	13	58	179	9	23	5	211	293	329	622	118	280	28	9	281	77	-14	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4521	4003	845	141	33	88	414	1277	71	181	35	211	296	329	625	118	285	28	9	282	77	-93	+18	-7	+45	+90	5.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	122	20	5	13	60	184	10	26	5	212	298	332	629	120	285	28	9	282	77	-15	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Miami · 133 PAwOBA .316 → .196 (−119)K% 28.6% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	34.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.985	10.89%
HBP% /PA	3.76%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	2.59%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.959	×0.985	11.33%
Doubles /BIP	4.41%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.959	×0.985	2.50%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.959	×0.985	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.985	2.72%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .316 → .196; ISO .160 → .080; BABIP .250 → .151. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Miami · 229 PAwOBA .348 → .228 (−120)K% 30.1% → 36.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.13%	÷1.016	×1.220	—	—	36.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.52%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.008	14.53%
HBP% /PA	3.49%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.46%
Singles /BIP	25.24%	÷1.002	×0.680	×1.010	×1.008	17.45%
Doubles /BIP	7.77%	÷1.263	×0.600	×1.010	×1.008	3.76%
Triples /BIP	2.91%	÷1.100	×0.600	×1.010	×1.008	1.62%
Home runs /BIP	1.94%	÷1.836	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.50%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 267, 1B 100, 2B 153, 3B 120, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .348 → .228; ISO .116 → .053; BABIP .366 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.4	2,260	45	79	218	296	340	+24	+21	4.6	4.3
/162	664	13	23	+7.1	+6.2	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gregori Arias (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	200/282/282	82	284	1	2	29%	9%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Óscar Mercado 2015 · A	20	37→47	37→50	53→60	42	180/236/248	68	230	5	19	23%	5%	37	-3.3	205/252/275	70	255	4	26	20%	5%	49	-2.4	245/308/380	135	288	13	27	19%	7%	93	+0.7
✕Daz Cameron 2017 · A	20	40→48	35→50	52→55	37	184/245/245	61	313	2	18	39%	7%	40	-3.1	209/275/336	127	304	11	18	33%	7%	73	-0.6	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
●Gregory Polanco 2012 · A	20	37→47	38→60	58→55	43	180/238/255	75	237	5	18	26%	6%	40	-3.1	251/304/385	134	298	13	24	20%	7%	94	+0.9	250/314/453	203	277	24	14	19%	8%	115	+2.1
✕Jordan Schafer 2006 · A	19	36→46	40→50	50→65	36	179/222/273	94	268	6	13	35%	5%	38	-3.2	225/269/353	128	315	10	13	30%	6%	74	-0.6	244/304/393	149	338	12	14	30%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Conner Capel 2017 · A	20	40→48	36→45	52→55	44	191/238/258	68	240	2	13	21%	5%	40	-3.1	210/265/335	125	281	12	11	28%	7%	68	-1.0	226/297/349	123	283	12	19	23%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Chuck Taylor 2013 · A	19	41→51	34→40	49→50	38	192/244/246	54	294	2	14	34%	6%	39	-3.1	222/285/291	69	303	3	8	26%	7%	65	-1.2	240/305/325	85	298	6	4	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Nomar Fana 2022 · A	19	39	37→50	48→50	43	187/246/258	71	263	4	9	29%	7%	43	-2.8	186/258/278	92	284	8	11	34%	9%	53	-2.1	169/252/282	112	253	13	14	36%	10%	50	-0.7
✕Michael Crouse 2010 · A	19	37→40	38→50	57→55	39	180/241/261	81	283	4	21	36%	7%	42	-2.9	190/255/312	122	314	11	20	40%	7%	59	-1.6	197/265/323	127	300	12	19	36%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Luis Barrera 2015 · A	19	34→44	38→45	49→50	47	168/236/246	78	214	5	7	24%	7%	37	-3.3	204/248/281	77	285	4	8	28%	5%	48	-2.5	248/293/357	110	319	5	17	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Yordalin Peña 2024 · A	19	36→37	37→55	55	41	176/232/253	77	233	4	10	26%	5%	37	-3.3	188/246/290	102	278	8	14	33%	6%	51	-2.2	184/241/311	127	279	12	17	37%	6%	52	-1.2
✕Brooks Baldwin 2023 · A	22	40→50	36→50	50	39	193/243/256	63	285	4	7	32%	6%	41	-3.0	232/284/364	132	300	15	16	27%	7%	82	-0.0	243/295/390	147	302	18	17	25%	6%	90	+0.5
✕Henry Ramos 2023 · A	18	36→46	34→40	55	49	170/255/219	49	238	2	17	27%	9%	39	-3.1	176/240/238	62	262	3	16	31%	7%	37	-3.3	201/266/273	72	289	5	18	30%	7%	51	-1.1
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2017 · A	19	40→45	38→50	50→45	38	195/232/275	80	260	5	6	27%	4%	41	-3.0	188/231/283	95	306	9	5	40%	5%	43	-2.8	223/288/380	158	332	23	6	38%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Moisés Sierra 2008 · A	19	35→45	40→50	49→50	38	177/232/265	88	238	8	10	29%	5%	40	-3.0	223/270/316	93	303	8	8	28%	4%	65	-1.2	252/302/391	139	320	16	11	25%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Edwin Gomez 2007 · A	19	40	34→40	52→50	45	188/248/242	54	254	2	16	26%	7%	40	-3.0	204/287/282	78	267	5	13	23%	10%	65	-1.2	191/302/269	79	238	6	17	20%	12%	68	-0.4
✕Juan Kelly 2014 · A	20	38→48	35→45	51→45	58	175/270/227	52	209	2	11	16%	11%	47	-2.5	204/271/292	88	270	5	7	24%	8%	61	-1.5	215/276/341	126	296	11	3	30%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Daniel Montano 2018 · A	19	34→44	39→45	46→50	45	171/236/261	90	223	6	9	25%	7%	40	-3.0	177/222/264	87	248	6	10	30%	5%	35	-3.4	213/289/324	112	322	9	6	34%	9%	73	-0.5
✕Francisco Sosa 2010 · A	20	37→46	35→45	47→50	41	179/246/236	57	257	3	14	30%	6%	38	-3.2	179/236/257	78	276	6	11	35%	6%	40	-3.1	193/249/307	115	289	12	14	36%	6%	54	-1.1
✕Markus Brisker 2011 · A	20	40→37	36→40	50→55	39	188/243/246	58	290	4	18	35%	7%	39	-3.1	183/261/265	82	299	5	19	37%	8%	51	-2.2	162/248/237	75	268	5	23	38%	8%	39	-1.6
✕Diego Infante 2018 · A	18	40→50	35→45	53→50	43	189/237/252	63	250	2	12	24%	6%	38	-3.2	194/238/262	68	291	3	10	32%	5%	40	-3.0	233/284/360	127	349	14	14	35%	6%	79	-0.2

Gregori Arias

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps