Gregori Arias — OGILVIE

Gregori AriasSS DSL Miami

Age 19 S/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION133 act + 13 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.083 / .154 / .083

PA13

HR0

K%31

BB%8

BABIP247

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE67

scouting grade only

SPEED66

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	229	172	39	8	3	2	47	69	8	23	7	227	414	343	757	116	366	30	21	356	127	+7	+2	—	—	+5	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	190	27	4	2	1	29	98	8	23	7	142	282	200	482	58	275	43	13	227	40	-16	+2	—	—	+5	-1.0
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	190	27	4	2	1	29	98	8	23	7	142	282	200	482	58	286	43	13	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	229	172	39	8	3	2	47	69	8	23	7	227	414	343	757	116	366	30	21	356	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	190	27	4	2	1	29	98	8	23	7	142	282	200	482	58	275	43	13	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	190	27	4	2	1	29	98	8	23	7	142	282	200	482	58	275	43	13	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	MIA	—	133	114	15	2	1	3	13	55	5	14	1	132	250	246	496	114	214	41	10	211	29	-11	+2	+0	+1	+3	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	MIA	—	133	106	20	3	1	4	21	38	5	14	1	189	348	349	698	160	250	29	16	323	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	MIA	0%	13	12	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	83	154	83	237		254	31	8	252	57	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	MIA	—	146	126	16	2	1	3	14	59	5	15	1	127	241	230	472	103	203	40	10	215	31	-12	+3	+0	+2	+3	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	222	195	36	6	1	4	21	68	4	7	1	185	277	287	564	103	257	31	9	261	63	-10	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	351	308	59	10	2	7	34	104	6	10	1	192	284	305	590	114	260	30	10	270	69	-13	+2	+0	+4	+8	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	445	391	76	13	3	9	43	129	8	13	2	194	287	312	599	118	263	29	10	275	72	-15	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	508	445	89	16	3	11	49	146	9	14	2	200	292	324	616	124	265	29	10	278	74	-15	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	549	481	96	17	3	12	53	157	10	16	2	200	292	322	615	123	265	29	10	280	75	-16	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	574	504	101	18	4	12	55	164	10	16	2	200	292	323	615	123	265	29	10	280	76	-16	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	587	514	103	18	4	13	57	168	11	17	2	200	294	327	621	126	265	29	10	281	76	-17	+3	+0	+6	+13	0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	590	516	103	18	4	13	58	169	11	17	2	200	294	326	620	126	265	29	10	281	76	-17	+3	+0	+6	+13	0.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIA	59%	588	514	103	18	4	13	58	169	11	16	2	200	295	327	622	126	265	29	10	280	76	-17	+2	-1	+6	+13	0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	580	508	99	17	3	12	57	168	10	15	2	195	289	311	600	116	264	29	10	278	74	-18	+2	-1	+6	+13	0.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIA	59%	570	498	97	17	3	12	57	167	10	15	2	195	290	313	604	118	263	29	10	276	73	-18	+2	-2	+6	+12	0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	76	68	11	2	0	1	7	23	1	2	0	162	250	235	485	74	250	30	9	242	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	170	149	28	5	1	3	16	50	3	5	1	188	280	295	575	107	254	29	9	250	69	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	241	212	41	7	2	5	23	70	4	7	1	193	285	316	601	123	256	29	10	255	72	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	288	253	49	8	2	6	28	83	5	8	1	194	287	312	599	119	257	29	10	259	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	310	271	53	9	2	6	30	89	6	9	1	196	290	310	600	114	258	29	10	260	75	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	324	284	55	9	2	7	31	93	6	9	1	194	287	313	600	120	258	29	10	261	76	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	332	291	56	9	2	7	32	95	6	9	1	192	286	309	595	117	258	29	10	261	76	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	327	286	55	9	2	7	32	94	6	9	1	192	287	311	598	119	258	29	10	261	76	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIA	59%	347	304	59	10	2	7	34	100	6	9	1	194	288	309	597	115	258	29	10	260	76	-10	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	324	283	54	9	2	6	32	94	6	9	1	191	287	300	587	110	257	29	10	259	74	-10	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIA	59%	335	293	56	9	2	7	33	98	6	9	1	191	286	307	593	116	256	29	10	256	73	-11	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3074	2694	517	86	19	62	298	889	55	85	10	192	286	307	593	115	259	29	10	258	73	-94	+13	-2	+33	+67	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	109	18	4	13	63	188	12	18	2	191	286	305	591	114	257	29	10	258	73	-20	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5806	5076	990	172	36	119	572	1711	108	180	27	195	290	313	604	118	266	29	10	276	73	-173	+23	-4	+60	+121	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	110	19	4	13	64	192	12	20	3	194	288	310	598	116	265	30	10	276	73	-20	+3	-0	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.9	3,235	67	89	198	287	317	+35	+21	3.6	3.4
/162	664	14	18	+7.1	+4.3	0.7	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gregori Arias (OGILVIE)	19	20→25	35→40	61→66	67	175/270/268	93	254	2	7	32%	10%	57	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	49	-2.4	225/287/322	97	319	6	19	29%	7%	74	-0.6	203/263/320	117	308	11	21	36%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Bryan Rincon 2023 · A	19	42→44	45	53→55	45	210/278/331	121	275	12	11	28%	8%	73	-0.6	192/286/292	100	274	9	22	30%	11%	68	-1.0	183/281/318	135	255	15	31	32%	11%	70	-0.5
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→40	40→45	57→60	43	221/278/318	97	302	7	17	28%	7%	69	-0.9	212/274/310	98	290	7	22	27%	7%	65	-1.2	203/265/310	108	257	10	33	24%	7%	60	-0.9
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	58	-1.7	218/283/318	100	304	7	21	28%	8%	71	-0.8	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→45	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	55	-2.0	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Ernesto Manzanillo 2008 · A	19	43	39→40	58→50	45	204/276/291	87	296	6	15	31%	8%	62	-1.4	219/285/315	96	323	6	14	31%	8%	71	-0.8	219/261/305	86	318	4	11	31%	5%	58	-0.7
✕Abiezel Ramirez 2019 · A	19	42	37→45	54→55	47	200/268/276	76	260	3	17	23%	8%	55	-1.9	206/265/298	92	317	7	15	34%	7%	59	-1.6	174/238/280	106	304	10	15	43%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Jonatan Clase 2021 · A	19	46	38→50	55→65	49	214/295/302	88	304	4	19	29%	10%	72	-0.7	205/281/334	129	306	12	34	34%	9%	75	-0.5	202/277/349	146	289	15	47	33%	8%	74	-0.5
✕Juan Matheus 2023 · A	19	42→46	42→45	51→55	53	197/305/310	112	291	8	16	32%	12%	79	-0.2	210/302/306	96	297	6	20	28%	11%	76	-0.4	217/288/319	102	277	9	23	24%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Miguel Tamares 2023 · A	18	39	39→40	56→60	50	186/287/273	87	280	6	24	32%	11%	64	-1.3	179/270/249	70	298	4	19	37%	10%	52	-2.2	131/245/158	27	239	0	24	39%	11%	22	-1.1
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→44	39→45	53→50	43	195/254/284	89	269	5	13	28%	7%	53	-2.1	216/286/322	106	302	9	13	29%	9%	74	-0.6	216/290/325	109	297	11	14	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	46→41	35→40	56→60	48	210/285/283	73	287	1	16	25%	8%	63	-1.3	206/280/293	87	291	3	18	27%	8%	64	-1.3	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Pedro Toribio 2010 · A	20	42	36→40	55→60	47	199/265/272	73	259	3	17	23%	8%	53	-2.1	229/276/321	92	283	4	23	20%	6%	68	-1.0	258/292/370	112	309	4	31	17%	4%	83	+0.0
✕Jim Caceres 2019 · A	18	43	40→45	55	48	207/277/305	97	255	6	14	21%	7%	65	-1.2	196/263/271	75	271	4	10	27%	7%	53	-2.1	124/200/139	15	187	0	10	30%	7%	-1	-1.0
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2016 · A	19	41→43	37→45	53→50	47	193/272/275	82	278	3	12	29%	9%	57	-1.8	201/256/314	113	299	9	14	34%	6%	60	-1.6	196/266/304	108	307	10	14	37%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2013 · A	20	41	36→40	52→65	48	193/259/264	71	240	3	18	20%	7%	50	-2.3	214/291/283	69	273	2	26	20%	9%	66	-1.1	212/299/273	61	273	1	34	20%	10%	63	-0.4
✕Ghordy Santos 2019 · A	19	37	38→40	51→50	53	176/275/255	79	250	5	16	29%	11%	55	-1.9	208/279/293	85	314	6	15	32%	9%	64	-1.3	179/233/285	106	312	11	11	44%	6%	42	-1.1
✕Robel García 2012 · A	19	37	43→50	53→40	43	183/255/301	118	276	9	9	35%	8%	57	-1.8	185/251/274	89	282	5	5	34%	8%	49	-2.4	189/259/371	183	269	25	2	39%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→37	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	51	-2.2	202/266/283	81	296	5	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	194/265/261	67	295	4	7	33%	8%	48	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps