Gregori AriasSS
DSL Miami
Age 19
S/R
6'0" / 160 lbs
ROK
HR -4%BB +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 3.1 · 2033
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .281 / .301
PA95
HR2
K%31
BB%9
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20↗25
PWR
30↗35
SPD
60↗65
EYE
65↗70
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.1peak
2033
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.9 | $28M | +$27M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +3.1 | $31M | +$30M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +3.1 | $31M | +$30M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +3.0 | $31M | +$25M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +2.8 | $30M | +$21M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $12M | +2.5 | $28M | +$15M |
| Totals | $31M | $179M | +$148M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 229 | 190 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 97 | 8 | 23 | 7 | .142 | .282 | .200 | .482 | .058 | .283 | 42 | 13 | .223 | 29 | -18 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +6 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | MIA | 95 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .212 | .295 | .341 | .636 | .129 | .281 | 32 | 9 | .269 | 64 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB 11% | MIA | 131 | 115 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .209 | .300 | .339 | .639 | .130 | .289 | 29 | 10 | .292 | 81 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB 28% | MIA | 284 | 247 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 80 | 4 | 8 | 2 | .219 | .316 | .356 | .672 | .138 | .290 | 28 | 11 | .304 | 91 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB 48% | MIA | 399 | 347 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 109 | 5 | 12 | 3 | .225 | .321 | .372 | .692 | .147 | .291 | 27 | 11 | .312 | 97 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +11 | 1.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB 65% | MIA | 477 | 414 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 54 | 127 | 6 | 14 | 3 | .227 | .325 | .382 | .707 | .155 | .291 | 27 | 11 | .318 | 101 | +1 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +14 | 2.1 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB 82% | MIA | 528 | 455 | 105 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 61 | 139 | 7 | 15 | 3 | .231 | .331 | .389 | .720 | .158 | .292 | 26 | 12 | .322 | 105 | +3 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +15 | 2.6 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 560 | 481 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 66 | 147 | 8 | 16 | 3 | .231 | .333 | .389 | .722 | .158 | .292 | 26 | 12 | .325 | 107 | +4 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +16 | 2.9 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 578 | 496 | 115 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 69 | 151 | 8 | 16 | 3 | .232 | .335 | .393 | .728 | .161 | .293 | 26 | 12 | .327 | 108 | +5 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +16 | 3.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 585 | 501 | 116 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 71 | 154 | 8 | 16 | 3 | .232 | .336 | .391 | .727 | .160 | .293 | 26 | 12 | .327 | 108 | +6 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +17 | 3.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 584 | 500 | 115 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 71 | 155 | 8 | 16 | 3 | .230 | .335 | .390 | .725 | .160 | .293 | 27 | 12 | .326 | 108 | +5 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +17 | 3.0 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 577 | 494 | 112 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 70 | 154 | 8 | 15 | 2 | .227 | .332 | .381 | .713 | .154 | .292 | 27 | 12 | .324 | 106 | +4 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +16 | 2.8 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 568 | 486 | 110 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 154 | 8 | 14 | 2 | .226 | .332 | .383 | .715 | .156 | .290 | 27 | 12 | .321 | 103 | +2 | +2 | -2 | +6 | +16 | 2.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 555 | 475 | 106 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 153 | 7 | 13 | 1 | .223 | .329 | .375 | .704 | .152 | .289 | 28 | 12 | .317 | 101 | +0 | +2 | -3 | +6 | +16 | 2.2 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 538 | 461 | 101 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 151 | 7 | 12 | 0 | .219 | .325 | .367 | .691 | .148 | .287 | 28 | 12 | .312 | 97 | -2 | +2 | -4 | +6 | +15 | 1.8 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 509 | 436 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 146 | 6 | 12 | 0 | .216 | .321 | .356 | .677 | .140 | .285 | 29 | 12 | .307 | 93 | -4 | +2 | -4 | +5 | +14 | 1.4 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 462 | 397 | 84 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 56 | 137 | 6 | 11 | 0 | .212 | .318 | .348 | .666 | .136 | .284 | 30 | 12 | .300 | 88 | -6 | +2 | -5 | +5 | +13 | 0.9 |
| 2042 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 407 | 350 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 49 | 124 | 5 | 10 | 0 | .206 | .312 | .337 | .649 | .131 | .281 | 30 | 12 | .293 | 82 | -8 | +2 | -6 | +4 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2043 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 347 | 299 | 58 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 110 | 4 | 9 | 0 | .194 | .299 | .308 | .607 | .114 | .278 | 32 | 12 | .284 | 75 | -10 | +2 | -6 | +4 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2044 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 282 | 244 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 92 | 3 | 7 | 0 | .184 | .289 | .283 | .572 | .098 | .274 | 33 | 12 | .274 | 68 | -10 | +1 | -7 | +3 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8695 | 7473 | 1639 | 278 | 48 | 237 | 1031 | 2448 | 119 | 244 | 37 | .219 | .323 | .365 | .688 | .145 | .290 | 28 | 12 | .311 | 96 | -39 | +34 | -38 | +93 | +246 | 30.2 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 559 | 123 | 21 | 4 | 18 | 77 | 183 | 9 | 18 | 3 | .220 | .324 | .369 | .693 | .148 | .291 | 28 | 12 | .311 | 96 | -3 | +2 | -3 | +7 | +18 | 2.2 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 229 | 172 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 69 | 8 | 23 | 7 | .227 | .414 | .343 | .757 | .116 | .366 | 30 | 21 | .356 | 130 | +8 | +2 | — | — | +6 | 1.6 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Gregori Arias (OGILVIE) | 19 | 20→25 | 30→35 | 60→65 | 70 | .196/.281/.301 | .105 | .281 | 2 | 2 | 31% | 9% | 64 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Bryan Rincon 2023 · A |
19 | 43→42 | 45→40 | 53→65 | 45 | .213/.281/.336 | .123 | .279 | 13 | 11 | 28% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .194/.288/.298 | .104 | .270 | 9 | 21 | 29% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .165/.260/.259 | .093 | .238 | 9 | 30 | 32% | 10% | 44 | -1.1 |
|
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A |
19 | 40→50 | 41→45 | 56→55 | 44 | .195/.266/.289 | .094 | .272 | 9 | 17 | 30% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .217/.283/.315 | .098 | .299 | 7 | 21 | 28% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .253/.315/.362 | .109 | .325 | 7 | 28 | 23% | 8% | 88 | +0.8 |
|
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A |
19 | 39→41 | 42→50 | 53→55 | 44 | .191/.270/.293 | .102 | .283 | 10 | 11 | 34% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .199/.283/.318 | .119 | .317 | 11 | 15 | 37% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .216/.296/.349 | .133 | .314 | 15 | 19 | 33% | 9% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A |
19 | 49→37 | 40→45 | 54→55 | 45 | .229/.303/.328 | .098 | .328 | 7 | 17 | 30% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .197/.323/.323 | .126 | .275 | 12 | 20 | 30% | 11% | 89 | +1.0 | .179/.324/.312 | .133 | .244 | 14 | 22 | 29% | 12% | 86 | +0.5 |
|
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A |
19 | 40 | 37→45 | 53→55 | 47 | .189/.261/.262 | .073 | .255 | 4 | 13 | 26% | 8% | 44 | -2.1 | .224/.287/.321 | .097 | .315 | 6 | 19 | 29% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.266/.325 | .120 | .308 | 11 | 21 | 35% | 6% | 59 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A |
19 | 43 | 38→30 | 52→60 | 41 | .205/.262/.288 | .083 | .287 | 4 | 12 | 29% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .223/.282/.290 | .067 | .291 | 2 | 11 | 22% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .224/.333/.269 | .045 | .305 | 1 | 34 | 23% | 14% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Juan Matheus 2023 · A |
19 | 42→46 | 41→40 | 50→55 | 53 | .198/.304/.305 | .107 | .295 | 7 | 15 | 32% | 12% | 75 | -0.0 | .207/.301/.301 | .094 | .296 | 6 | 20 | 29% | 11% | 72 | -0.2 | .211/.291/.296 | .085 | .285 | 5 | 23 | 25% | 9% | 64 | -0.5 |
|
●Leo Rivas 2017 · A |
19 | 45→54 | 36→40 | 54→65 | 47 | .209/.293/.283 | .073 | .289 | 3 | 20 | 26% | 8% | 63 | -0.8 | .203/.293/.281 | .078 | .289 | 4 | 14 | 28% | 10% | 63 | -0.9 | .238/.354/.331 | .093 | .320 | 9 | 44 | 25% | 14% | 100 | +1.2 |
|
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A |
20 | 47→40 | 40 | 56→55 | 43 | .223/.279/.318 | .095 | .302 | 7 | 17 | 28% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .211/.272/.306 | .095 | .291 | 7 | 22 | 28% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .209/.274/.312 | .103 | .279 | 7 | 30 | 26% | 7% | 59 | -0.7 |
|
●Bo Naylor 2019 · A |
19 | 44→43 | 39→55 | 52→50 | 46 | .211/.278/.300 | .089 | .298 | 6 | 9 | 30% | 8% | 60 | -1.0 | .194/.251/.313 | .119 | .273 | 11 | 7 | 31% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .216/.308/.399 | .183 | .269 | 22 | 12 | 28% | 11% | 97 | +1.2 |
|
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A |
19 | 39 | 35→30 | 49→55 | 44 | .184/.249/.245 | .061 | .269 | 3 | 14 | 31% | 8% | 34 | -2.8 | .201/.291/.247 | .046 | .283 | 1 | 15 | 26% | 10% | 53 | -1.5 | .210/.308/.237 | .027 | .280 | 0 | 17 | 22% | 11% | 56 | -0.4 |
|
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A |
19 | 47→48 | 41→50 | 53→45 | 48 | .227/.287/.331 | .103 | .273 | 8 | 13 | 20% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .229/.306/.353 | .124 | .285 | 12 | 10 | 22% | 9% | 86 | +0.8 | .226/.311/.371 | .145 | .266 | 15 | 9 | 20% | 10% | 91 | +1.0 |
|
✕Robel García 2012 · A |
19 | 37→36 | 42→50 | 53→40 | 43 | .182/.256/.297 | .115 | .277 | 8 | 9 | 35% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .185/.252/.276 | .091 | .276 | 6 | 6 | 32% | 8% | 43 | -2.2 | .189/.260/.380 | .191 | .269 | 27 | 2 | 39% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
★Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A |
19 | 46→56 | 36→45 | 53→55 | 55 | .212/.301/.276 | .064 | .273 | 3 | 16 | 22% | 11% | 65 | -0.7 | .218/.304/.295 | .077 | .280 | 4 | 15 | 21% | 9% | 71 | -0.3 | .256/.355/.382 | .126 | .288 | 11 | 19 | 14% | 12% | 111 | +2.2 |
|
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A |
19 | 45 | 41→55 | 55 | 43 | .216/.285/.315 | .099 | .290 | 7 | 13 | 27% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .204/.313/.323 | .119 | .295 | 10 | 23 | 31% | 12% | 83 | +0.6 | .202/.308/.336 | .135 | .284 | 11 | 26 | 30% | 12% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A |
20 | 41 | 40→45 | 54→60 | 47 | .189/.291/.289 | .100 | .303 | 7 | 8 | 36% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .201/.301/.282 | .081 | .273 | 6 | 17 | 26% | 10% | 68 | -0.5 | .180/.308/.228 | .048 | .225 | 5 | 30 | 19% | 12% | 56 | -0.5 |
|
✕Ernesto Manzanillo 2008 · A |
19 | 44 | 39→40 | 57→50 | 45 | .205/.277/.293 | .087 | .298 | 6 | 14 | 31% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .218/.285/.315 | .097 | .321 | 6 | 14 | 31% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .219/.262/.306 | .086 | .319 | 5 | 11 | 31% | 5% | 52 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jonatan Clase 2021 · A |
19 | 46→45 | 38→50 | 55→65 | 49 | .214/.295/.302 | .088 | .304 | 4 | 19 | 29% | 10% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.283/.335 | .129 | .308 | 12 | 33 | 34% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .201/.277/.352 | .150 | .289 | 16 | 47 | 34% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 |
|
✕Ricardo Ferreira 2015 · A |
20 | 48 | 36→40 | 54→60 | 50 | .215/.310/.286 | .072 | .325 | 3 | 19 | 31% | 11% | 72 | -0.2 | .247/.324/.323 | .076 | .343 | 3 | 23 | 26% | 9% | 85 | +0.7 | .263/.336/.338 | .075 | .360 | 3 | 29 | 25% | 9% | 91 | +0.5 |
|
✕Carlos Willoughby 2008 · A |
19 | 48→41 | 36→40 | 53→60 | 49 | .224/.300/.292 | .068 | .279 | 3 | 16 | 20% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .230/.314/.297 | .067 | .297 | 2 | 27 | 21% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .235/.320/.307 | .072 | .303 | 1 | 35 | 20% | 9% | 78 | +0.1 |