Jesmaylin Arias

OF ACL Padres

Age 20 L/L 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKSD	196	.178/.280/.290	3	3	6	—	.125/.202/.199
2026	19	ASD	81	.208/.296/.306	0	3	34	—	.176/.247/.257
2026	19	ROKSD	185	.271/.379/.510	8	7	80	—	.202/.286/.374
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBSD	376	.198/.261/.295	5	6	57	-0.7
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBSD	111	.200/.265/.306	2	2	63	-0.3
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBSD	203	.205/.270/.318	4	3	68	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed85

Whiff%70

Z-Con%67

K%53

ISO30

BB%21

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJose Quero (age 20) · Wilmer Oberto (age 20) · Vicmal De La Cruz (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 254 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .259 / .292

PA254

HR3

K%25

BB%6

ISO97

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	81	72	15	5	1	0	7	19	2	3	1	208	296	306	602	97	283	23	9	278	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	185	155	42	11	1	8	21	31	6	7	2	271	379	510	889	239	286	17	11	386	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	228	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	176	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	125	202	199	401	74	205	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	81	74	13	4	1	0	5	26	2	3	1	176	247	257	504	81	258	32	6	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	185	163	33	8	1	6	13	45	6	7	2	202	286	374	660	172	227	24	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	234	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	153	39	11	1	1	17	41	3	2	1	255	341	359	701	105	336	23	10	317	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	176	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	125	202	199	401	74	222	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	196	169	30	8	1	3	21	62	3	3	1	178	280	290	570	112	252	32	11	262	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	266	237	46	12	2	6	18	70	8	10	3	194	274	338	611	143	244	26	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	266	227	57	16	2	8	28	50	8	10	3	251	354	445	799	194	285	19	11	353	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	228	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	177	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	124	202	198	400	73	205	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	266	238	46	12	2	6	18	70	8	10	3	193	274	336	610	143	236	26	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	175	158	26	6	1	1	12	52	3	2	1	165	237	234	471	70	228	30	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	196	177	22	5	1	2	14	87	3	3	1	124	202	198	400	73	205	44	7	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	266	238	46	12	2	6	18	70	8	10	3	193	274	336	610	143	236	26	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	0%	376	344	68	14	2	5	24	95	5	6	2	198	261	295	556	97	256	25	6	252	57	-19	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	34%	324	296	61	13	2	5	21	80	4	5	2	204	268	311	579	107	259	25	6	262	63	-14	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	48%	419	382	79	16	2	8	28	102	6	6	2	208	273	323	597	115	261	24	7	269	68	-16	+0	+0	-3	+9	-0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	54%	481	439	93	19	3	9	33	116	6	7	2	212	278	332	610	120	264	24	7	274	72	-16	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	55%	521	472	102	21	3	11	37	125	7	7	2	215	281	338	619	124	266	24	7	278	75	-16	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	56%	544	493	108	22	3	12	39	130	7	7	2	217	283	343	626	126	267	24	7	281	76	-15	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	34%	111	101	21	4	1	2	7	27	2	2	1	200	265	306	571	106	254	24	6	259	63	-5	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	48%	203	184	38	7	1	4	14	50	3	3	1	205	270	318	589	113	256	25	7	266	68	-8	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	54%	261	237	49	10	1	5	18	63	4	4	1	208	274	327	602	119	258	24	7	271	72	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	55%	289	263	56	11	2	6	20	69	4	4	1	211	278	334	611	122	260	24	7	275	75	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	56%	305	276	59	11	2	7	22	73	4	4	1	213	280	338	618	125	262	24	7	278	76	-9	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1169	1061	223	43	7	24	81	282	17	17	5	210	277	332	609	122	261	24	7	272	63	-38	+1	+0	-7	+25	-1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	124	24	4	13	45	157	9	9	3	210	276	331	606	120	262	24	7	272	63	-21	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3180	2886	583	124	18	57	218	826	47	51	16	202	269	317	586	115	260	26	7	262	63	-90	+3	+0	-15	+55	-4.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	119	25	4	12	45	169	10	10	3	202	270	319	589	117	259	26	7	262	63	-23	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.1	1,423	26	21	211	273	328	-9	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	12	10	-4.0	+0.0	-0.9	pk7: 0
#4Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3
#5Howie Schultz'43-'48 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	24	15	233*	271*	383*	-30	-2	-3.6	-3.6
/162	664	9	6	-11.8	-0.7	-1.4	pk7: -4
#6Fritz Mollwitz'13-'19 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,904 PA	2.9	1,904	1	70	242*	287*	361*	-34	-8	-5.1	-5.1
/162	664	0	24	-11.8	-2.8	-1.8	pk7: -5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesmaylin Arias (OGILVIE)	20	20	30	40	40	197/259/292	96	256	3	4	25%	6%	57	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Quero 2019 · A	20	37	39→40	44→30	45	183/248/260	77	238	7	3	25%	7%	45	-2.7	204/260/314	110	262	10	6	25%	7%	61	-1.5	193/245/339	146	221	15	4	21%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Wilmer Oberto 2013 · A	20	37	39→45	43→45	50	180/265/262	82	221	6	7	21%	8%	53	-2.1	201/259/306	105	271	9	4	28%	6%	59	-1.6	195/244/312	117	267	11	0	30%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	38	38→40	47→50	40	185/239/260	76	260	6	5	30%	6%	41	-3.0	185/243/256	71	278	3	6	32%	6%	42	-2.9	144/211/202	57	222	0	6	32%	6%	17	-1.5
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	40	36→40	45→50	46	190/261/259	69	270	4	9	29%	8%	50	-2.3	191/256/256	65	306	3	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	156/231/187	31	268	0	14	38%	8%	19	-1.5
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Jaden Rudd 2023 · A	20	39→36	39→30	49→50	49	187/279/277	90	259	6	12	28%	9%	61	-1.5	182/288/248	66	288	3	14	34%	10%	59	-1.6	160/281/212	51	264	2	16	35%	11%	47	-1.3
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2011 · AAA	20	37	40→45	45	44	184/239/279	95	232	7	7	24%	6%	45	-2.7	229/271/333	104	319	10	8	30%	5%	70	-0.9	232/280/360	127	323	14	8	31%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Yeicok Calderon 2012 · A	20	38	42→40	49→45	42	190/255/295	105	271	9	7	32%	7%	55	-1.9	188/238/305	117	303	12	5	40%	6%	51	-2.2	179/226/296	117	283	14	3	41%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Daniel Montano 2018 · A	19	34→44	39→45	46→50	45	171/236/261	90	223	6	9	25%	7%	40	-3.0	177/222/264	87	248	6	10	30%	5%	35	-3.4	213/289/324	112	322	9	6	34%	9%	73	-0.5
✕Miguel Arrendell 2008 · A	20	37	35→30	39→50	51	172/251/226	54	210	3	5	19%	8%	39	-3.1	193/291/255	62	249	3	12	21%	11%	61	-1.5	201/272/282	81	263	7	9	25%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Herman Armas 2007 · A	20	37	38→40	47→50	44	181/254/261	80	248	5	11	28%	7%	48	-2.5	197/270/285	88	250	7	9	23%	7%	59	-1.6	179/264/261	82	212	9	9	19%	8%	51	-1.2
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	36	39→40	42→50	52	178/287/262	84	243	7	10	28%	11%	62	-1.4	171/257/257	86	259	7	6	34%	9%	49	-2.4	134/224/213	79	200	8	2	35%	9%	27	-1.2
✕Josh Sale 2012 · A	21	37	40→45	46→40	43	185/236/280	95	238	7	6	25%	6%	45	-2.7	206/275/317	111	300	10	6	32%	8%	68	-1.0	193/270/308	115	299	12	4	36%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	40	35→30	46→50	47	189/255/250	61	251	3	12	25%	8%	45	-2.7	198/260/264	66	294	3	8	31%	7%	50	-2.3	180/248/237	57	271	2	9	32%	8%	36	-1.1
✕Raudelis Martinez 2022 · A	20	35	37→30	44→45	46	169/234/235	66	215	5	7	23%	7%	34	-3.5	180/260/257	77	220	6	8	20%	8%	49	-2.4	171/242/235	64	204	6	6	19%	8%	37	-1.6
✕Omar Lebron 2019 · A	20	37	40→30	48→55	47	183/262/274	91	231	8	15	24%	8%	55	-2.0	192/264/282	90	269	6	9	29%	7%	56	-1.9	149/239/229	80	212	3	9	28%	8%	34	-0.9
✕Sandy Acevedo 2013 · A	20	37	38→40	49→50	44	181/259/263	83	253	5	11	29%	8%	51	-2.3	186/256/284	98	256	7	9	28%	7%	54	-2.0	123/201/242	119	154	9	9	26%	8%	23	-1.1
✕Angel Acosta 2024 · A	21	42	38→40	40→50	48	201/276/279	78	249	5	5	20%	7%	60	-1.6	211/268/276	65	259	4	9	19%	6%	55	-1.9	219/273/273	54	263	4	11	17%	6%	55	-0.7
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	40	36→30	48→55	45	191/250/257	66	243	3	12	22%	6%	45	-2.7	211/279/276	65	274	2	16	22%	7%	60	-1.6	221/294/282	61	275	1	29	18%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	37→42	39→40	48→50	44	183/255/263	80	245	6	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	199/291/294	95	292	8	8	32%	10%	70	-0.8	186/290/280	94	280	9	10	33%	11%	66	-0.7

Jesmaylin Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps