Juan Alvarez — OGILVIE

Juan AlvarezOF ACL D-backs

Age 20 S/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION158 act + 105 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .249 / .288

PA105

HR1

K%31

BB%6

BABIP280

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	91	12	1	0	1	10	42	2	1	2	132	233	176	409	44	220	40	10	194	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	86	16	2	0	1	15	30	2	1	2	186	320	244	565	58	263	29	14	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	159	25	6	1	2	8	66	4	4	1	157	216	245	462	88	247	38	5	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	153	38	9	2	3	13	41	4	4	1	248	322	392	714	144	315	24	8	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	ARI	—	158	148	26	6	1	3	9	59	0	1	2	176	223	291	513	115	264	37	6	218	25	-13	-1	+0	-1	+4	-1.1
YTD	20	ROK	ARI	—	158	142	37	9	1	4	15	41	0	1	2	261	331	423	754	162	337	26	9	334	114	+2	-1	+0	-1	+4	0.5
ROS	20	ROK	ARI	0%	105	97	19	4	1	1	6	33	1	1	1	195	249	288	537	92	270	31	6	241	43	-7	-0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
ROS	20	MLB	ARI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		272	—	—	238	40	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	ARI	—	158	149	26	6	1	3	9	59	0	1	2	174	223	289	512	114	261	37	6	218	25	-13	-1	+0	-1	+4	-1.1
TOT	20	ROK	ARI	—	263	245	45	10	2	4	15	92	1	2	3	183	233	289	523	106	271	35	6	227	32	-20	-1	+0	-2	+7	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	ARI	34%	278	257	52	10	2	5	17	84	2	4	2	202	257	315	572	113	272	30	6	253	52	-15	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
2028	22	MLB	ARI	48%	385	354	72	14	2	7	25	114	3	5	2	203	262	314	575	110	275	30	6	261	58	-18	+0	+0	-2	+11	-1.0
2027	21	MLB	ARI	34%	96	89	19	4	1	2	6	29	1	1	1	213	271	348	619	135	275	30	6	249	48	-6	-0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
2028	22	MLB	ARI	48%	187	171	36	7	1	4	12	55	2	3	1	211	270	333	604	123	277	29	6	257	55	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	283	261	55	11	2	6	18	84	3	4	2	211	270	337	608	126	285	30	6	254	53	-15	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	127	25	5	14	41	193	7	9	5	212	271	341	611	129	287	30	6	254	53	-35	-0	+0	-4	+18	-2.1
Career	—			—	1046	958	180	35	6	16	66	339	12	15	8	188	249	287	536	99	268	32	6	240	42	-69	-0	+0	-6	+30	-4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	112	22	4	10	41	211	7	9	5	188	248	289	538	101	269	32	6	240	42	-43	-0	+0	-4	+18	-2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	86	16	2	0	1	15	30	2	1	2	186	320	244	565	58	263	29	14	270	65	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	153	38	9	2	3	13	41	4	4	1	248	322	392	714	144	315	24	8	317	100	+0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	461	7	6	202	256	306	-3	+0	-1.5	-0.7
	/162	664	11	9	202	256	306	-4.0	+0.0	-2.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alvarez (OGILVIE)	20	35	35	45	25	183/233/289	106	271	4	2	35%	6%	32	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nolan Perez 2019 · A	20	36	38→40	45→40	36	178/228/253	74	267	5	4	34%	5%	27	-3.3	191/230/273	82	324	6	5	41%	4%	33	-2.9	174/195/256	81	303	6	1	44%	2%	11	-1.4
✕Gerlis Rodriguez 2008 · A	20	41	41→40	45→50	40	203/253/294	90	271	9	7	28%	6%	48	-1.9	214/255/291	77	264	5	8	20%	5%	48	-1.9	215/252/284	69	258	4	9	18%	4%	42	-0.9
✕Edward Garcia 2008 · A	20	43	38→40	47→55	37	207/255/286	79	301	6	12	32%	5%	46	-2.0	189/238/261	72	294	5	16	35%	5%	33	-2.9	146/194/213	67	233	5	22	38%	5%	-1	-1.6
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	37	-2.6	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	27	-3.3	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	-6	-1.3
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A	20	39	40	48→50	38	191/241/288	97	267	7	9	30%	5%	42	-2.3	214/267/304	90	282	5	10	24%	6%	56	-1.3	223/275/315	92	285	5	14	22%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Daniel Mateo 2012 · A	20	45→44	39→40	50→45	38	218/254/307	89	292	6	6	27%	4%	51	-1.7	213/257/308	95	274	8	3	24%	5%	53	-1.5	205/250/300	95	259	9	1	24%	5%	45	-1.8
✕Mario Yepez 2008 · A	20	40	37→40	51→45	40	193/237/265	71	250	4	8	24%	5%	33	-2.9	226/268/305	79	280	4	9	20%	4%	57	-1.2	221/261/303	82	273	5	8	20%	3%	51	-0.7
✕Joseph Miranda 2015 · A	20	39	40→45	45→40	40	193/240/289	96	259	7	3	28%	6%	41	-2.3	201/245/288	87	267	5	6	25%	5%	43	-2.2	176/205/247	70	223	3	6	22%	4%	16	-1.0
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	33	-2.9	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	60	-1.0	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Wander Franco 2017 · A	20	37	39→40	44→40	43	184/241/266	82	249	7	4	28%	7%	36	-2.7	194/245/297	103	289	10	4	34%	6%	46	-2.0	187/232/291	104	263	11	2	33%	6%	36	-1.4
✕Luis García 2021 · A	20	37	38→40	44→45	39	181/233/256	75	261	6	8	32%	6%	30	-3.1	180/265/285	105	270	10	10	34%	9%	53	-1.5	159/257/259	101	239	11	10	35%	10%	41	-1.1
✕Israel Mota 2016 · A	20	40	40→45	48→50	37	197/242/286	89	284	7	9	32%	5%	41	-2.3	198/260/293	95	301	8	7	35%	6%	52	-1.6	139/226/244	105	204	11	5	36%	7%	26	-0.7
✕Dayan Frias 2022 · A	20	45→42	38→40	48→50	46	211/282/296	85	296	4	7	28%	8%	61	-1.0	204/276/295	91	306	7	6	33%	8%	59	-1.1	193/270/284	91	285	8	6	32%	9%	51	-1.2
✕Edwin Mateo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	46→55	45	187/255/254	66	252	4	12	26%	7%	39	-2.5	202/279/280	78	267	6	14	25%	9%	56	-1.3	211/291/293	82	288	6	19	26%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Elvin Polanco 2007 · A	20	35→41	42→45	44→40	42	179/252/275	96	251	10	5	32%	7%	44	-2.1	213/256/317	104	283	11	4	28%	5%	56	-1.3	215/246/310	95	285	10	2	28%	3%	47	-1.1
✕Cristian Garcia 2023 · A	19	40	38→40	44→40	43	192/258/273	81	268	5	7	29%	7%	45	-2.1	192/277/286	94	312	7	4	36%	10%	58	-1.2	170/272/269	98	289	7	2	39%	11%	51	-0.7
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Eddie Hernandez 2019 · A	20	45	38→40	45	36	219/247/301	82	293	6	7	27%	3%	46	-2.0	196/234/271	75	302	4	5	34%	4%	33	-2.9	159/199/225	65	253	2	2	36%	4%	5	-2.4
✕Robi Estrada 2009 · A	20	43	37→40	46→50	43	204/255/273	69	276	4	8	26%	6%	43	-2.2	207/257/262	55	271	2	9	23%	6%	40	-2.4	215/262/305	90	262	8	9	21%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Robel García 2013 · A	20	36→37	40→50	48→40	40	177/241/272	95	268	7	6	35%	7%	38	-2.6	189/257/279	90	284	6	6	33%	8%	46	-2.0	192/262/383	192	272	27	2	39%	8%	75	+0.0