Juan Alvarez
OF ACL D-backs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Arizona B… | 105 | .186/.320/.244 | 1 | 1 | 12 | — | .122/.233/.167 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKDSL Arizona R… | 173 | .248/.322/.392 | 3 | 4 | 14 | — | .139/.205/.203 |
| 2026 | 20 | ROKARI | 183 | .264/.341/.411 | 4 | 1 | 34 | — | .176/.231/.276 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBARI | 293 | .195/.252/.284 | 4 | 4 | 51 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBARI | 48 | .206/.264/.308 | 1 | 1 | 56 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | — | 105 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 186 | 320 | 244 | 565 | 58 | 263 | 29 | 14 | 270 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | — | 173 | 153 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 248 | 322 | 392 | 714 | 144 | 315 | 24 | 8 | 317 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 183 | 163 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 264 | 341 | 411 | 752 | 147 | 345 | 26 | 10 | 335 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Black | — | 105 | 90 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 122 | 233 | 167 | 400 | 44 | 176 | 34 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Red | — | 173 | 158 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 139 | 205 | 203 | 407 | 63 | 198 | 31 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 183 | 170 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 176 | 231 | 276 | 507 | 100 | 262 | 37 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Black | — | 105 | 90 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 122 | 233 | 167 | 400 | 44 | 182 | 34 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Arizona Black | — | 105 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 186 | 320 | 244 | 565 | 58 | 263 | 29 | 14 | 270 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Red | — | 173 | 158 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 139 | 205 | 203 | 407 | 63 | 198 | 31 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Arizona Red | — | 173 | 153 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 248 | 322 | 392 | 714 | 144 | 315 | 24 | 8 | 317 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 183 | 170 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 176 | 231 | 276 | 507 | 100 | 270 | 37 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 183 | 163 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 47 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 264 | 341 | 411 | 752 | 147 | 345 | 26 | 10 | 335 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Black | — | 105 | 91 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 121 | 233 | 165 | 398 | 44 | 176 | 34 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Red | — | 173 | 158 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 139 | 205 | 203 | 407 | 63 | 198 | 31 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 183 | 169 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 231 | 278 | 509 | 101 | 262 | 37 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Black | — | 105 | 91 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 121 | 233 | 165 | 398 | 44 | 176 | 34 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Arizona Red | — | 173 | 158 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 139 | 205 | 203 | 407 | 63 | 198 | 31 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 183 | 169 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 231 | 278 | 509 | 101 | 262 | 37 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | ARI | 0% | 293 | 270 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 87 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 252 | 284 | 535 | 89 | 270 | 30 | 6 | 243 | 51 | -17 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | ARI | 34% | 141 | 130 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 258 | 297 | 555 | 97 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | ARI | 34% | 48 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 264 | 308 | 572 | 103 | 282 | 29 | 6 | 258 | 56 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 311 | 561 | 111 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 258 | 33 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 609 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 190 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 200 | 251 | 314 | 564 | 113 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 258 | 33 | -34 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 697 | 636 | 106 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 226 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 167 | 233 | 248 | 481 | 82 | 240 | 32 | 7 | 216 | 33 | -13 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 99 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 211 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 167 | 233 | 248 | 481 | 81 | 241 | 32 | 7 | 216 | 33 | -36 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL D-backs · 183 PAwOBA .328 → .219 (−110)K% 25.7% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.972 | ×0.995 | 19.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.972 | ×0.995 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.972 | ×0.995 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.68% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .328 → .219; ISO .147 → .097; BABIP .345 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Arizona Red · 173 PAwOBA .312 → .189 (−123)K% 23.7% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.70% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.51% | ÷0.986 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.013 | ×0.680 | ×0.973 | ×0.995 | 13.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.04% | ÷0.922 | ×0.600 | ×0.973 | ×0.995 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.134 | ×0.600 | ×0.973 | ×0.995 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.121 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.12% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .312 → .189; ISO .144 → .072; BABIP .315 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 105 PAwOBA .269 → .186 (−83)K% 28.6% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.957 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷1.015 | ×0.680 | ×1.011 | ×1.008 | 15.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | ×1.011 | ×1.008 | 2.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | ×1.011 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.899 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.94% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .269 → .186; ISO .058 → .033; BABIP .263 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).