Juan Alvarez — OGILVIE

Juan AlvarezOF ACL D-backs

Age 20 S/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION183 act + 17 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .235 / .250

PA17

HR0

K%29

BB%6

BABIP277

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	86	16	2	0	1	15	30	2	1	2	186	320	244	565	58	263	29	14	270	69	-4	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	153	38	9	2	3	13	41	4	4	1	248	322	392	714	144	315	24	8	317	100	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	91	12	1	0	1	10	43	2	1	2	132	233	176	409	44	212	41	10	190	15	-11	-1	—	—	+2	-0.9
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	159	26	6	1	2	8	63	4	4	1	164	222	252	474	88	241	36	5	207	26	-15	+0	—	—	+4	-1.1
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	91	12	1	0	1	10	43	2	1	2	132	233	176	409	44	224	41	10	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	86	16	2	0	1	15	30	2	1	2	186	320	244	565	58	263	29	14	270	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	159	26	6	1	2	8	63	4	4	1	164	222	252	474	88	250	36	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	153	38	9	2	3	13	41	4	4	1	248	322	392	714	144	315	24	8	317	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	92	12	1	0	1	10	43	2	1	2	130	233	174	407	43	212	41	10	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	159	26	6	1	2	8	63	4	4	1	164	222	252	474	88	241	36	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	105	92	12	1	0	1	10	43	2	1	2	130	233	174	407	43	212	41	10	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	173	159	26	6	1	2	8	63	4	4	1	164	222	252	474	88	241	36	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ARI	—	183	170	30	6	1	3	12	68	0	1	2	176	231	276	507	100	270	37	7	220	35	-14	-1	+0	-1	+4	-1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	ARI	—	183	163	43	10	1	4	19	47	0	1	2	264	341	411	752	147	345	26	10	335	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	ARI	0%	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	271	29	6	242	50	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	20	ROK MLE	ARI	—	200	186	33	7	1	3	13	73	0	1	2	177	231	274	505	97	270	36	6	222	36	-15	-1	+0	-1	+4	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	240	221	44	9	1	4	15	72	2	3	1	199	256	303	559	104	274	30	6	254	58	-12	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	82	76	15	3	1	1	5	25	1	1	0	197	256	303	559	105	280	30	6	251	58	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	82	76	15	3	1	1	5	25	1	1	0	197	256	303	559	105	280	30	6	251	39	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	119	24	8	8	40	198	8	8	0	198	257	304	561	106	280	30	6	251	39	-32	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	535	487	85	17	2	7	34	183	8	8	4	175	240	261	501	86	258	34	6	226	39	-13	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	104	21	2	9	41	222	10	10	5	176	241	264	505	88	259	34	6	226	39	-33	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	236	3	3	201	254	299	-1	+0	-0.7	-0.4
/162	664	9	9	-4.0	+0.0	-2.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Alvarez (OGILVIE)	20	35	35	45	25	191/246/285	94	271	2	2	31%	6%	50	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nolan Perez 2019 · A	20	36	38→40	45→40	36	178/228/253	74	267	5	4	34%	5%	35	-3.4	191/230/273	82	324	6	5	41%	4%	40	-3.0	174/195/256	81	303	6	1	44%	2%	22	-1.3
✕Gerlis Rodriguez 2008 · A	20	41	41→40	45→50	40	203/253/294	90	271	9	7	28%	6%	54	-2.0	214/255/291	77	264	5	8	20%	5%	54	-2.0	215/252/284	69	258	4	9	18%	4%	49	-1.0
✕Edward Garcia 2008 · A	20	43	38→40	47→55	37	207/255/286	79	301	6	12	32%	5%	53	-2.1	189/238/261	72	294	5	16	35%	5%	40	-3.0	146/194/213	67	233	5	22	38%	5%	11	-1.6
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	45	-2.7	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	36	-3.4	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	6	-1.3
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A	20	39	40	48→50	38	191/241/288	97	267	7	9	30%	5%	49	-2.4	214/267/304	90	282	5	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	223/275/315	92	285	5	14	22%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Daniel Mateo 2012 · A	20	45	39→40	50→45	38	218/254/307	89	292	6	6	27%	4%	57	-1.8	214/258/309	95	277	8	3	25%	5%	59	-1.6	207/254/302	95	264	8	1	24%	5%	52	-1.9
✕Mario Yepez 2008 · A	20	40	37→40	51→45	40	193/237/265	71	250	4	8	24%	5%	41	-3.0	226/268/305	79	280	4	9	20%	4%	62	-1.4	221/261/303	82	273	5	8	20%	3%	57	-0.8
✕Joseph Miranda 2015 · A	20	39	40→45	45→40	40	193/240/289	96	259	7	3	28%	6%	48	-2.5	201/245/288	87	267	5	6	25%	5%	49	-2.4	176/205/247	70	223	3	6	22%	4%	26	-1.0
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	41	-3.0	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	65	-1.2	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	61	-0.3
✕Wander Franco 2017 · A	20	37	39→40	44→40	43	185/241/267	82	249	7	4	28%	7%	44	-2.8	194/245/299	105	292	11	4	35%	6%	53	-2.1	185/229/292	107	265	12	2	34%	5%	42	-1.4
✕Robi Estrada 2009 · A	20	43	37→40	46→50	43	204/255/273	69	276	4	8	26%	6%	50	-2.3	208/257/264	56	272	2	9	23%	6%	48	-2.5	217/265/303	85	265	7	9	20%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Elvin Polanco 2007 · A	20	35→41	42→45	44→40	42	179/252/275	96	251	10	5	32%	7%	51	-2.3	213/256/317	104	283	11	4	28%	5%	61	-1.5	215/246/310	95	285	10	2	28%	3%	53	-1.1
✕Israel Mota 2016 · A	20	40	40→45	48→50	37	197/242/286	89	284	7	9	32%	5%	48	-2.5	198/260/293	95	301	8	7	35%	6%	57	-1.8	139/226/244	105	204	11	5	36%	7%	34	-0.7
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	38	42→40	44→55	39	190/253/289	99	277	10	9	34%	6%	54	-2.0	206/263/300	94	283	6	11	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Dayan Frias 2022 · A	20	45→41	39→40	48→55	47	211/284/303	92	293	5	7	28%	9%	68	-1.0	203/274/294	91	301	7	6	32%	8%	63	-1.4	192/267/281	89	280	8	6	32%	8%	55	-1.5
✕Jonathan Araúz 2019 · A	20	40→38	40→45	44→45	46	195/252/294	99	241	7	5	22%	7%	53	-2.1	204/260/309	105	258	10	5	24%	7%	61	-1.5	187/255/290	103	228	12	3	23%	8%	53	-1.2
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	41	-3.0	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	43	-2.8	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	24	-1.1
✕Edwin Mateo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	46→55	45	187/255/254	66	252	4	12	26%	7%	46	-2.6	202/279/280	78	267	6	14	25%	9%	61	-1.5	209/289/292	83	287	6	19	27%	8%	66	-0.5
✕Eddie Hernandez 2019 · A	20	45	38→40	45	36	219/247/301	82	293	6	7	27%	3%	53	-2.1	196/235/270	74	301	4	5	34%	5%	41	-3.0	160/202/222	61	254	2	2	36%	4%	17	-2.3
✕Eduardo Lopez 2023 · A	21	40	39→40	46→50	40	189/258/272	83	297	7	9	36%	7%	52	-2.2	191/259/295	104	289	10	11	35%	8%	57	-1.8	171/242/280	109	251	11	11	35%	8%	46	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps