Simon Miller

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #880

ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	33	51	1.94	2.34	30.8%	10.1%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.20
2025	24	AACIN	44	51	3.71	4.24	28.1%	10.1%	—	K 22.7% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.13
2026	25	AACIN	6	10	4.66	4.13	27.5%	5.0%	—	K 27.5% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.16
2027PROJ	26	MLBCIN	67	70	4.69	4.69	24.6%	12.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCIN	25	26	4.68	4.69	24.5%	12.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBCIN	38	40	4.71	4.75	24.3%	12.0%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command35FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJesus Pirela (age 26) · Ronald Peña (age 26) · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%24.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CMD3035

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2023	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	51	208	64	21	2	0%	1.5	23.3%	11.8%	11.5%	1.0%	1.94	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	51	208	64	21	2	0%	1.5	23.3%	11.8%	11.5%	1.0%	1.94	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	51	208	64	21	2	0%	1.5	30.8%	10.1%	20.7%	1.0%	1.94	2.34	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	44	0	51	228	64	23	9	0%	1.2	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	4.6%	3.71	5.13	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	44	0	51	228	64	23	9	0%	1.2	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	4.6%	3.71	5.13	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	44	0	51	228	64	23	9	0%	1.2	28.1%	10.1%	18.0%	3.9%	3.71	4.24	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	6	0	10	40	11	2	2	0%	1.6	27.5%	5.0%	22.5%	5.0%	4.66	4.16	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	6	0	10	40	11	2	2	0%	1.6	27.5%	5.0%	22.5%	5.0%	4.66	4.16	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	6	0	10	40	11	2	2	0%	1.6	27.5%	5.0%	22.5%	5.0%	4.66	4.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CIN	67	0	70	296	73	36	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.3%	12.3%	3.2%	4.69	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CIN	66	0	69	291	71	35	9	0%	1.0	24.5%	12.0%	12.5%	3.2%	4.68	4.69	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	CIN	64	0	67	282	69	34	9	0%	1.0	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.75	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	270	65	33	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.1%	11.9%	3.4%	4.79	4.86	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CIN	25	0	26	110	27	13	4	0%	1.0	24.5%	12.0%	12.5%	3.2%	4.68	4.69	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	CIN	38	0	40	169	41	20	6	0%	1.1	24.3%	12.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.75	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CIN	43	0	45	190	46	23	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.1%	11.9%	3.4%	4.79	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	113	56	16	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.74	4.40	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	101	29	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.74	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		84	0	113	480	112	53	15	0%	1.3	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.1%	2.96	4.20	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	0	200	852	199	94	26	0%	1.3	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.1%	2.96	4.20	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Simon Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	24.6%	12.3%	3.2%	—	4.76	24.3%	12.2%	200	+0.07	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	91
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	91
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	90
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	88
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	87
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	86
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	86
Scott Dohmann R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	26	SU	4.44	24.7%	9.6%	4.0%	.270	4.80	20.6%	8.5%	112	+0.36	4.28	173	85
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	85
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	85
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	85
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	84
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	84
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	84
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	84
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	84
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	84
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	653	84
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	24.4%	12.1%	1.26	4.72
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*