Ivan Brethowr — OGILVIE

Ivan BrethowrRF Altoona Curve

Age 23 R/R 6'6" / 250 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION180 act + 140 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.168 / .288 / .261

PA140

HR2

SB5

K%36

BB%10

BABIP269

ISO92

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	95	86	11	1	0	2	5	38	4	3	0	128	211	209	420	81	196	40	5	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	95	83	14	1	0	2	8	26	4	3	0	169	274	253	527	84	218	27	8	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	428	350	65	8	2	4	48	153	28	30	4	186	331	254	585	69	313	36	11	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	428	327	73	11	2	6	71	113	28	30	4	223	404	324	728	101	319	26	17	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	180	156	23	5	2	3	17	75	6	6	0	147	257	263	520	115	253	42	9	238	40	-12	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.8
YTD	23	AA	PIT	—	180	146	28	7	3	3	25	57	6	6	0	192	330	342	672	151	287	32	14	308	94	-1	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.3
ROS	23	AA	PIT	2%	140	119	20	3	1	2	14	51	6	5	0	168	288	261	548	92	269	36	10	257	55	-7	+1	+0	-2	+4	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						268	33	0	228	32	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	PIT	—	183	159	23	5	2	3	17	76	6	6	0	145	253	258	511	113	247	42	9	238	40	-12	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.8
TOT	23	AA	PIT	—	320	275	43	8	3	5	31	126	12	11	0	156	270	262	532	105	260	39	10	246	47	-19	+2	+0	-3	+9	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	PIT	31%	451	387	69	12	3	7	45	156	16	14	2	178	290	279	569	101	274	35	10	268	64	-19	+2	+0	-5	+13	-0.9
2028	25	MLB	PIT	45%	481	414	78	14	3	9	48	162	16	15	2	188	297	302	599	114	276	34	10	276	69	-17	+2	+0	-5	+14	-0.6
2029	26	MLB	PIT	51%	497	428	81	14	3	10	50	164	16	16	2	189	298	306	604	117	277	33	10	279	72	-16	+2	+0	-5	+14	-0.5
2030	27	MLB	PIT	53%	502	431	83	15	3	10	50	165	16	16	2	193	300	311	611	118	277	33	10	280	73	-15	+2	+0	-5	+14	-0.4
2027	24	MLB	PIT	31%	140	120	22	4	1	2	14	49	5	4	0	183	295	283	578	100	273	35	10	242	43	-9	+1	+0	-2	+4	-0.6
2028	25	MLB	PIT	45%	214	184	34	6	1	4	21	72	7	7	1	185	292	293	586	109	275	34	10	250	50	-12	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.8
2029	26	MLB	PIT	51%	253	218	40	7	1	5	25	84	8	8	1	183	291	294	584	110	276	33	10	255	53	-13	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.8
2030	27	MLB	PIT	53%	264	227	43	8	1	5	27	87	8	8	1	189	298	300	597	110	276	33	10	256	54	-14	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	874	752	139	25	4	16	87	293	28	27	3	185	293	293	586	108	275	34	10	252	51	-49	+4	+0	-9	+25	-3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	559	104	19	3	12	65	218	21	20	2	186	295	295	590	109	277	34	10	252	51	-36	+3	+0	-7	+18	-2.2
Career	—			—	2594	2215	407	67	15	44	260	889	102	99	12	184	298	287	586	103	281	34	10	271	66	-101	+15	+0	-28	+73	-4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	555	102	17	4	11	65	223	26	25	3	184	299	288	587	105	281	34	10	271	66	-25	+4	+0	-7	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	95	83	14	1	0	2	8	26	4	3	0	169	274	253	527	84	218	27	8	252	51	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	428	327	73	11	2	6	71	113	28	30	4	223	404	324	728	101	319	26	17	348	124	+12	+4	—	—	+12	2.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	877	17	28	188	294	301	-9	-2	-1.0	-0.5
	/162	664	13	21	188	294	301	-7.1	-1.5	-0.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ivan Brethowr (OGILVIE)	23	35	30	60	60	156/270/262	105	260	5	11	39%	10%	47	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Sinay 2017 · A	23	45	36→30	56→60	49	205/317/266	61	285	3	23	26%	9%	72	-0.2	205/319/264	59	293	3	20	29%	7%	72	-0.2	181/319/211	31	274	2	26	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	39→46	38→40	53→60	49	182/289/262	80	287	6	16	35%	11%	58	-1.2	202/293/281	79	297	5	23	30%	10%	63	-0.8	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2022 · A	23	42	41→40	58→60	40	198/267/289	91	321	9	25	38%	8%	53	-1.5	189/272/270	81	309	6	19	37%	9%	52	-1.6	97/227/121	24	177	0	28	39%	12%	-4	-1.2
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	40→45	54→60	55	161/294/251	90	257	7	24	35%	14%	59	-1.1	189/306/294	105	299	8	20	35%	12%	73	-0.1	189/308/299	110	300	9	21	35%	12%	73	-0.1
✕Jose Curpa 2022 · A	22	40	36→30	58→55	46	184/272/253	69	286	2	24	33%	10%	47	-1.9	206/292/291	85	310	6	17	32%	9%	65	-0.7	198/299/263	65	296	5	23	31%	10%	59	-0.3
✕Tyreace House 2011 · A	23	45→43	34→30	53→55	56	205/308/258	53	274	2	20	23%	12%	64	-0.8	195/266/246	51	279	3	18	28%	8%	42	-2.3	171/228/189	18	253	0	22	30%	6%	7	-3.1
✕Cade Gotta 2015 · A	23	41→51	39→45	54→55	46	195/271/287	91	276	5	16	29%	8%	55	-1.4	216/266/313	97	287	7	21	26%	6%	58	-1.2	241/300/343	102	307	6	36	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	46	-2.0	217/272/277	60	282	3	17	23%	6%	51	-1.7	231/276/282	51	286	2	23	19%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Alerick Soularie 2022 · A	23	43	43→45	54→60	45	205/286/312	107	309	10	15	34%	9%	68	-0.5	194/278/311	117	294	12	22	35%	9%	65	-0.7	176/267/290	113	262	13	29	35%	9%	53	-0.7
✕Drew Swift 2022 · A	23	44→43	39→30	56→55	49	196/296/281	86	323	6	23	37%	12%	66	-0.6	208/278/272	64	322	3	19	33%	8%	53	-1.5	207/275/256	49	318	1	18	32%	8%	44	-1.3
✕Dionis Hinojosa 2014 · A	23	42	36→30	50→60	41	200/254/264	64	288	3	17	30%	6%	40	-2.4	208/261/286	78	284	5	10	27%	6%	50	-1.8	198/248/261	62	248	4	8	21%	4%	37	-0.4
✕Clay Fuller 2010 · A	23	43→45	42→45	56→55	45	206/285/313	107	296	9	20	31%	9%	68	-0.5	215/273/342	127	292	15	16	30%	6%	70	-0.3	213/264/350	136	280	18	16	30%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Kyle Gaedele 2013 · A	23	44→43	38→45	54→50	44	206/276/296	90	303	4	14	31%	8%	59	-1.1	203/268/333	130	306	12	15	35%	7%	66	-0.6	197/267/344	147	303	15	16	38%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Hudson Haskin 2022 · A	23	48→44	40	52→50	42	226/301/321	96	314	7	18	28%	6%	77	+0.1	220/305/333	113	311	10	15	30%	7%	82	+0.5	210/305/318	108	304	10	17	31%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Blake Rambusch 2023 · A	23	47	37→30	52→65	42	219/287/293	74	318	4	14	30%	7%	63	-0.9	230/317/295	65	313	3	29	25%	9%	76	+0.1	252/330/304	52	316	1	49	19%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Rob Henry 2019 · A	24	41	37→30	54→55	49	193/289/269	76	284	4	18	30%	10%	59	-1.1	181/267/257	76	330	6	12	43%	9%	46	-2.0	143/238/200	56	291	6	12	48%	8%	17	-2.6
✕Jon Matthews 2014 · A	23	42	38→40	58→60	41	198/263/275	77	277	5	25	29%	6%	48	-1.9	231/299/299	68	313	3	16	25%	8%	69	-0.4	243/314/298	55	326	2	16	24%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	40	40→45	55→65	40	189/270/275	87	300	7	31	37%	8%	53	-1.5	224/290/323	99	311	6	26	28%	7%	72	-0.2	245/309/346	101	327	3	32	24%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	42	40	50	48	204/285/300	96	281	8	18	28%	9%	64	-0.8	200/261/296	96	312	9	11	36%	7%	53	-1.5	146/208/210	64	238	7	8	40%	6%	4	-1.2