Sam Armstrong
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 245 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2028
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.0%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%9.5%
IP114
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2028
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 9 | 1 | 15 | 63 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 12.3% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 27 | 20 | 116 | 476 | 101 | 36 | 7 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 2.87 | 3.89 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 27 | 26 | 130 | 547 | 104 | 40 | 13 | 15.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 3 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 14.6% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 5.40 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 87 | 41 | 14 | 18.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 124 | 533 | 96 | 47 | 15 | 18.0% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 121 | 513 | 98 | 43 | 15 | 19.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 124 | 526 | 102 | 44 | 15 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 125 | 526 | 102 | 44 | 15 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 99 | 43 | 15 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 95 | 42 | 15 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 91 | 42 | 15 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 86 | 41 | 15 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 104 | 441 | 81 | 40 | 14 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 75 | 38 | 14 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 94 | 395 | 69 | 37 | 14 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 88 | 369 | 63 | 36 | 13 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 48 | 271 | 1136 | 178 | 101 | 27 | 15.7% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 4.19 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 35 | 200 | 839 | 132 | 75 | 20 | 15.7% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Armstrong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 18.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.48 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 92 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 92 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 92 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 91 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 90 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 90 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 90 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 89 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 89 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 89 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.28 | 3.77 | 725 | 89 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.04 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .320 | 4.89 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 204 | 89 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Wily Peralta R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 88 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .301 | 6.54 | 13.8% | 5.0% | 19 | +1.85 | 3.41 | 270 | 88 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 373 | 88 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 88 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 88 |
| Forrest Snow R 2027 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 87 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $7M | $33M | +$26M | ||