Sam Armstrong — OGILVIE

Sam Armstrong P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 245 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION118 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%14.0%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	15	63	11	8	0	11%	1.6	12.3%	15.7%	-3.4%	0.0%	4.91	4.05	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	15	63	11	8	0	11%	1.6	12.3%	15.7%	-3.4%	0.0%	4.91	4.05	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	15	63	11	8	0	11%	1.6	17.5%	12.7%	4.8%	0.0%	4.91	3.24	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	116	476	101	36	7	74%	4.3	16.6%	8.6%	8.1%	2.0%	2.87	3.90	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	116	476	101	36	7	74%	4.3	16.6%	8.6%	8.1%	2.0%	2.87	3.90	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	116	476	101	36	7	74%	4.3	21.2%	7.6%	13.7%	1.5%	2.87	3.07	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	27	26	130	547	104	40	13	96%	4.8	15.4%	8.0%	7.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.41	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	27	26	130	547	104	40	13	96%	4.8	15.4%	8.0%	7.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.41	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	27	26	130	547	104	40	13	96%	4.8	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	2.4%	4.71	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	32	20	118	513	104	41	16	62%	3.7	16.4%	8.8%	7.6%	3.7%	4.96	4.88	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	32	20	118	513	104	41	16	62%	3.7	16.4%	8.8%	7.6%	3.7%	4.96	4.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	MIN	32	20	118	513	104	41	16	62%	3.7	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.96	4.11	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	7	31	4	3	1	100%	7.3	14.0%	8.5%	5.5%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	125	544	108	44	17	—	—	19.9%	8.0%	11.9%	3.1%	4.96	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	117	494	77	41	14	100%	5.8	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	2.8%	4.81	4.78	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	115	486	78	41	14	100%	6.1	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	2.9%	4.78	4.78	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	112	472	76	40	14	100%	5.9	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	3.0%	4.80	4.84	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	107	451	73	39	14	100%	5.9	16.1%	8.7%	7.4%	3.2%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	100	423	67	38	14	100%	5.9	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	3.4%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	51	215	34	18	6	100%	6.4	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	2.8%	4.82	4.79	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	12	12	73	308	49	26	9	100%	6.1	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	84	355	57	30	11	100%	6.0	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	3.0%	4.81	4.85	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	87	367	59	32	12	100%	6.2	16.1%	8.7%	7.4%	3.2%	4.90	4.96	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	86	363	57	33	12	100%	6.1	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	3.4%	5.04	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	382	1613	258	139	50	100%	6.0	16.0%	8.6%	7.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.54	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	73	26	100%	6.0	16.0%	8.6%	7.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		95	67	379	1599	255	140	45	71%	4.0	16.0%	8.7%	7.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	845	135	74	24	71%	4.0	16.0%	8.7%	7.2%	2.8%	4.23	4.39	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Armstrong (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	14.0%	8.5%	2.8%	—	4.80	15.9%	7.5%	344	-0.12	—	—	—
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	89
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	88
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	87
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	84
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	83
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	83
Jared Ruxer R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	14.0%	7.0%	3.7%	.301	6.47	13.8%	5.0%	19	+1.65	3.39	270	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	81
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	81
Zach Lewis R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	24	SP-	4.14	14.9%	9.4%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	266	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	105	15.7%	8.6%	1.16	4.87
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14