Sam Armstrong
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 245 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA4.94
FIP4.94
K%14.0%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%5.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 1 | 15 | 63 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 11% | 1.6 | 12.3% | 15.7% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 4.05 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 1 | 15 | 63 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 11% | 1.6 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.24 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 116 | 476 | 101 | 36 | 7 | 74% | 4.3 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 2.87 | 4.05 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 116 | 476 | 101 | 36 | 7 | 74% | 4.3 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 1.5% | 2.87 | 3.07 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 27 | 26 | 130 | 547 | 104 | 40 | 13 | 96% | 4.8 | 15.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.43 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 27 | 26 | 130 | 547 | 104 | 40 | 13 | 96% | 4.8 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 4.71 | 3.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 19 | 17 | 73 | 322 | 59 | 33 | 13 | 89% | 3.8 | 14.8% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.20 | 5.93 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.0% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 4.94 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 137 | 596 | 97 | 56 | 21 | — | — | 16.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.0% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 4.95 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 53 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 79 | 333 | 60 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.53 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 59 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 45 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 106 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.26 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 67 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 64 | 333 | 1408 | 219 | 131 | 43 | 78% | 4.1 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.63 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 845 | 131 | 79 | 26 | 78% | 4.1 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Armstrong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 14.0% | 8.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.64 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 236 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 88 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 85 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 84 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 83 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 83 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .320 | 4.70 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.54 | 3.64 | 204 | 83 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 83 |
| Frank Batista R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 83 |
| Luke Irvine R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 82 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 82 |
| Javier Solano R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 11.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .331 | 4.06 | 12.3% | 7.3% | 275 | -0.93 | 3.63 | 506 | 81 |
| Shane Greene R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 81 |
| Forrest Snow R 2027 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 81 |
| Rafael Sanchez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 362 | 81 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 80 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.50 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.44 | 3.73 | 725 | 80 |
| Elliot Morris R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 80 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 80 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2028 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 80 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .303 | 4.01 | 16.6% | 4.2% | 20 | -0.61 | 4.01 | 214 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 79 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 1.13 | 4.75 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |