Aric McAtee — OGILVIE

Aric McAtee P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%22.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	103	28	10	1	0%	1.4	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	2.2%	5.18	3.58	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	24	103	28	10	1	0%	1.4	21.1%	8.4%	12.7%	2.2%	5.18	3.58	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	24	103	28	10	1	0%	1.4	27.2%	9.7%	17.5%	1.0%	5.18	2.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	39	0	45	200	50	27	5	0%	1.2	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	3.1%	5.36	5.09	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	39	0	45	200	50	27	5	0%	1.2	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	3.1%	5.36	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	CWS	30	0	33	146	42	16	4	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.0%	17.8%	2.7%	4.36	3.56	—
2026	26	AA RAW	CWS	9	0	12	54	8	11	1	0%	1.4	14.8%	20.4%	-5.6%	1.9%	8.03	5.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	42	0	44	185	42	16	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	4.35	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	15	0	16	68	15	6	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	15	6	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	3.97	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	75	25	0%	1.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.0%	4.33	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		56	0	70	303	61	39	8	0%	1.2	20.0%	12.9%	7.1%	2.8%	5.30	4.58	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	870	174	112	24	0%	1.2	20.0%	12.9%	7.1%	2.8%	5.30	4.58	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aric McAtee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	22.6%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.35	22.7%	13.8%	44	+0.04	—	—	—
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	90
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	87
Neil Ramírez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	26	SU	3.21	25.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.289	4.75	28.3%	17.6%	151	+1.54	3.21	220	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	84
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	83
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	82
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.44	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.01	3.44	198	82
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	82
Sam Wolff R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	26.6%	8.0%	2.8%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.42	2.66	178	82
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	20.5%	7.2%	2.0%	.313	4.86	14.1%	5.8%	66	+1.46	2.89	237	81
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	81
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	80
Joe Broussard R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.316	3.72	21.1%	12.0%	95	-0.11	2.62	304	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	80
Jeff Johnson R 2016 · 3.18 FIP	26	SU	3.18	21.9%	9.6%	1.3%	.284	3.69	23.6%	8.0%	55	+0.51	2.49	160	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	22.6%	8.8%	1.17	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79