Nolan Santos

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	5	1	6	2.84	4.68	14.3%	21.4%	—	K 14.3% · BB 21.4% · FIP 4.61
2024	23	MIX2 levels	43	0	68	2.93	2.27	28.0%	9.1%	—	K 20.9% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.15
2026	25	A+MIN	23	3	44	7.31	5.04	17.5%	16.6%	—	K 13.4% · BB 19.1% · FIP 5.58
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	27	0	28	5.70	5.70	16.6%	16.4%	-0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBMIN	13	0	14	5.59	5.60	17.2%	15.8%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsHaden Erbe (age 25) · Luis García (age 26) · Jeremy Guthrie (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%16.6%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%0.2%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	6	28	4	6	0	20%	1.3	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	0.0%	2.84	4.61	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	6	28	4	6	0	20%	1.3	14.3%	21.4%	-7.1%	0.0%	2.84	4.68	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	286	80	26	2	0%	1.6	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	0.8%	2.93	3.15	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	68	286	80	26	2	0%	1.6	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	0.8%	2.93	3.15	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	68	286	80	26	2	0%	1.6	28.0%	9.1%	18.9%	0.7%	2.93	2.27	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	23	3	44	229	40	38	4	13%	1.9	13.4%	19.1%	-5.6%	2.2%	7.31	5.58	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	23	3	44	229	40	38	4	13%	1.9	13.4%	19.1%	-5.6%	2.2%	7.31	5.58	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	23	3	44	229	40	38	4	13%	1.9	17.5%	16.6%	0.9%	1.7%	7.31	5.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	27	0	28	118	20	19	3	0%	1.0	16.6%	16.4%	0.2%	2.8%	5.70	5.70	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	37	0	39	166	29	26	5	0%	1.1	17.2%	15.8%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.60	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	13	0	14	59	10	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	15.8%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.60	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	61	10	10	2	0%	1.0	17.2%	15.8%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.22	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	139	139	28	0%	1.1	17.2%	15.8%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.22	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		71	4	118	543	95	80	7	6%	1.7	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	1.4%	4.56	4.25	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	7	200	918	160	136	13	6%	1.7	17.4%	14.8%	2.6%	1.4%	4.56	4.25	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	16.6%	16.4%	2.8%	—	5.60	17.2%	1.5%	39	-0.10	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	87
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	85
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	85
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	83
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	82
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	82
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	81
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	81
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	81
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	80
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	80
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	80
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	80
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	16.9%	16.0%	1.11	5.64
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*