Skylar Hales — OGILVIE

Skylar Hales P Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%21.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD3040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	39	11	1	3	0%	1.5	28.2%	2.6%	25.6%	7.7%	4.22	5.27	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	11	39	11	1	3	0%	1.5	28.2%	2.6%	25.6%	7.7%	4.22	5.27	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	11	39	11	1	3	0%	1.5	28.2%	2.6%	25.6%	7.7%	4.22	4.97	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	57	230	66	17	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	0.5%	3.18	2.51	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	57	230	66	17	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	8.3%	14.3%	0.5%	3.18	2.51	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	57	230	66	17	1	0%	1.3	28.7%	7.4%	21.3%	0.4%	3.18	1.90	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	53	234	58	22	10	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.2%	5.4%	6.79	5.49	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	53	234	58	22	10	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.2%	5.4%	6.79	5.49	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	53	234	58	22	10	0%	1.1	24.8%	9.4%	15.4%	4.3%	6.79	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	37	0	42	209	45	29	5	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	2.6%	6.43	4.62	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	37	0	42	209	45	29	5	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	2.6%	6.43	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	STL	37	0	42	209	45	29	5	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.9%	7.7%	2.4%	6.43	4.35	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	STL	5	0	6	24	5	2	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	48	233	50	31	6	—	—	21.5%	13.5%	8.0%	2.5%	6.24	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	62	28	10	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	3.4%	4.78	4.76	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	63	27	10	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.4%	4.72	4.71	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	283	62	27	10	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.72	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	62	0	65	274	60	27	10	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.76	4.80	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	31	0	33	139	30	13	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	3.4%	4.78	4.76	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	45	0	47	198	44	19	7	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.5%	12.4%	3.4%	4.72	4.71	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	53	224	49	21	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.72	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	52	0	55	232	51	23	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.76	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		180	0	189	797	174	77	28	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.5%	4.74	4.37	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	82	30	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.6%	12.3%	3.5%	4.74	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		138	0	162	712	148	68	22	0%	1.2	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.1%	5.27	4.26	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	0	200	877	182	83	27	0%	1.2	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.1%	5.27	4.26	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Skylar Hales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	21.0%	9.8%	3.5%	—	4.73	21.8%	12.3%	203	-0.14	—	—	—
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	92
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	89
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	89
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Brett McKinney R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	24	SU	4.79	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	4.02	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	87
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	86
Landon Beck R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	18.6%	8.6%	2.4%	.309	4.21	17.4%	8.7%	63	+0.30	3.53	186	86
Hunter Dula R 2023 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	20.1%	12.1%	3.5%	.301	4.06	19.8%	10.2%	37	-0.80	3.91	132	85
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Mick VanVossen R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	18.6%	8.9%	2.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	141	85
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	85
Johnny Barbato R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.4%	11.2%	2.0%	.282	4.66	21.1%	11.6%	105	+0.93	2.59	304	85
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	85
Justin Evans R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	19.2%	11.2%	4.5%	.333	3.89	22.0%	5.5%	65	-1.49	3.63	105	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	21.7%	9.6%	1.34	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43