Skylar Hales
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
K%21.4%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.2% | 2.6% | 25.6% | 7.7% | 4.22 | 5.27 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.2% | 2.6% | 25.6% | 7.7% | 4.22 | 4.97 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 57 | 230 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 0.4% | 3.18 | 2.49 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 57 | 230 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.7% | 7.4% | 21.3% | 0.4% | 3.18 | 1.90 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 58 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 6.79 | 5.95 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 53 | 234 | 58 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 9.4% | 15.4% | 4.3% | 6.79 | 4.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 26 | 0 | 30 | 152 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 7.71 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 61 | 30 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 98 | 436 | 96 | 48 | 16 | — | — | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.89 | 5.03 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 7 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 21.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 63 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 64 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 63 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 0 | 140 | 590 | 131 | 60 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.50 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 86 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 0 | 151 | 655 | 143 | 63 | 24 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 4.46 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 0 | 200 | 869 | 189 | 83 | 32 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 5.44 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Skylar Hales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 3.7% | — | 4.88 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 203 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 91 |
| Simon Miller R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.08 | 22.7% | 11.1% | 4.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 102 | 89 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 89 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 88 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.38 | 15.5% | 5.5% | 20 | +0.10 | 4.28 | 195 | 87 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.79 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 3.4% | .301 | 4.05 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 37 | -0.74 | 3.85 | 132 | 87 |
| Justin Evans R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.29 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 4.4% | .333 | 3.97 | 22.0% | 5.5% | 65 | -1.32 | 3.73 | 105 | 87 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 86 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 86 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 86 |
| Zach Jackson R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.01 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .261 | 2.43 | 33.6% | 19.6% | 76 | -2.58 | 2.37 | 309 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 86 |
| Shay Schanaman R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 4.7% | .292 | 6.38 | 16.2% | 2.1% | 69 | +1.52 | 4.86 | 127 | 86 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.96 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 4.0% | .335 | 4.21 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 129 | -0.75 | 3.42 | 183 | 85 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 85 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.24 | 20.9% | 12.9% | 4.1% | .261 | 4.62 | 21.4% | 2.1% | 51 | -0.62 | 4.08 | 168 | 85 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 85 |
| Adisyn Coffey R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.83 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 3.5% | .311 | 3.97 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 151 | -0.86 | 2.89 | 229 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 1.41 | 4.93 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |