Justin JohnsonSS
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 26
R/R
5'10" / 185 lbs
AA
HR -5%BB +4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.1 · 2027
wRC+†41
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .280 / .318
PA250
HR4
SB7
K%26
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
40→40
PWR
45→45
SPD
45→45
EYE
49↘40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-0.6M | $-12M | -$12M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 126 | 112 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .170 | .250 | .196 | .446 | .027 | .235 | 25 | 7 | .216 | 24 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 400 | 348 | 68 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 94 | 9 | 16 | 5 | .195 | .291 | .276 | .567 | .080 | .255 | 24 | 10 | .252 | 51 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 323 | 296 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 94 | 3 | 7 | 1 | .186 | .242 | .297 | .539 | .111 | .241 | 29 | 6 | .234 | 37 | -23 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +9 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 44 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .098 | .159 | .146 | .305 | .049 | .182 | 43 | 7 | .136 | -38 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | KC | 206 | 187 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 57 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .198 | .265 | .294 | .559 | .096 | .268 | 28 | 7 | .262 | 58 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +6 | -0.1 |
| TOT | 26 | MLB | KC | 250 | 228 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 2 | 7 | 1 | .180 | .246 | .268 | .514 | .088 | .253 | 30 | 7 | .239 | 41 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 11% | KC | 265 | 239 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 62 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .209 | .281 | .326 | .608 | .117 | .258 | 23 | 8 | .271 | 66 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 22% | KC | 316 | 284 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 75 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .211 | .284 | .327 | .612 | .116 | .261 | 24 | 8 | .274 | 68 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 34% | KC | 342 | 307 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 81 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .208 | .283 | .319 | .602 | .111 | .261 | 24 | 8 | .274 | 68 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 44% | KC | 358 | 322 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 86 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .208 | .282 | .317 | .598 | .109 | .261 | 24 | 8 | .273 | 67 | -13 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 53% | KC | 355 | 319 | 66 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 87 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .207 | .281 | .317 | .598 | .110 | .259 | 25 | 8 | .269 | 64 | -14 | +1 | -3 | +4 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 71% | KC | 345 | 310 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 86 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .206 | .281 | .316 | .597 | .110 | .258 | 25 | 8 | .264 | 60 | -15 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB 88% | KC | 320 | 288 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 82 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .201 | .274 | .306 | .580 | .104 | .256 | 26 | 8 | .259 | 56 | -16 | +1 | -4 | +3 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | KC | 279 | 252 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .194 | .267 | .286 | .553 | .091 | .254 | 27 | 8 | .253 | 51 | -15 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +8 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3635 | 3264 | 657 | 147 | 8 | 57 | 289 | 910 | 46 | 65 | 12 | .201 | .276 | .304 | .579 | .102 | .259 | 25 | 8 | .261 | 58 | -174 | +8 | -20 | +39 | +103 | -4.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 584 | 117 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 52 | 163 | 8 | 12 | 2 | .200 | .275 | .300 | .575 | .099 | .258 | 25 | 8 | .261 | 58 | -31 | +2 | -4 | +7 | +18 | -0.8 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 126 | 109 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .202 | .298 | .239 | .537 | .037 | .259 | 20 | 10 | .254 | 53 | -7 | +0 | — | — | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 400 | 334 | 79 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 51 | 76 | 9 | 16 | 5 | .237 | .352 | .341 | .693 | .105 | .293 | 19 | 13 | .318 | 101 | +1 | +1 | — | — | +11 | 1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 323 | 285 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 74 | 3 | 7 | 1 | .232 | .308 | .368 | .677 | .137 | .280 | 23 | 9 | .301 | 89 | -4 | +1 | — | — | +9 | 0.6 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Justin Johnson (OGILVIE) | 26 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 40 | .210/.280/.318 | .108 | .275 | 4 | 5 | 26% | 8% | 67 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Jake Kahaulelio 2011 · AA |
26 | 45→44 | 43→45 | 48→45 | 43 | .222/.277/.340 | .118 | .275 | 10 | 8 | 23% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .209/.277/.314 | .105 | .255 | 9 | 8 | 21% | 7% | 65 | -0.7 | .184/.266/.264 | .080 | .221 | 6 | 8 | 19% | 7% | 45 | -0.8 |
|
✕T.J. White 2018 · AA |
26 | 44→46 | 44→45 | 48→45 | 43 | .216/.278/.335 | .119 | .273 | 10 | 8 | 25% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .209/.266/.341 | .132 | .283 | 14 | 7 | 30% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .144/.194/.244 | .100 | .196 | 14 | 3 | 35% | 4% | 7 | -1.1 |
|
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 43→45 | 46 | .192/.280/.301 | .108 | .265 | 11 | 7 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .198/.277/.336 | .138 | .251 | 16 | 10 | 27% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .186/.266/.336 | .150 | .221 | 18 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Drew Jackson 2019 · AA |
26 | 42→45 | 44→45 | 50→55 | 43 | .210/.281/.323 | .113 | .279 | 11 | 17 | 28% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .198/.276/.314 | .116 | .288 | 12 | 20 | 33% | 8% | 65 | -0.7 | .181/.268/.277 | .096 | .287 | 10 | 25 | 37% | 9% | 49 | -0.8 |
|
✕Sean Jamieson 2015 · AA |
26 | 47→46 | 43→45 | 48→50 | 44 | .228/.288/.348 | .120 | .291 | 10 | 10 | 25% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .225/.285/.323 | .098 | .319 | 8 | 9 | 30% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .210/.277/.287 | .076 | .316 | 6 | 8 | 33% | 7% | 53 | -0.7 |
|
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA |
27 | 41 | 44→45 | 44→40 | 43 | .205/.269/.321 | .117 | .279 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .216/.284/.361 | .145 | .260 | 15 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .203/.270/.374 | .171 | .212 | 20 | 2 | 16% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Patrick Brady 2014 · AA |
26 | 46 | 45→50 | 44→45 | 45 | .230/.279/.353 | .124 | .278 | 12 | 9 | 22% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .215/.261/.336 | .121 | .291 | 12 | 10 | 29% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .199/.249/.307 | .108 | .284 | 9 | 11 | 32% | 6% | 46 | -0.7 |
|
✕Tres Barrera 2021 · AA |
26 | 44→43 | 42→45 | 44→40 | 43 | .218/.271/.324 | .106 | .273 | 10 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .213/.282/.319 | .106 | .270 | 11 | 3 | 24% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .200/.272/.301 | .102 | .250 | 12 | 1 | 24% | 8% | 55 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jordan Tarsovich 2017 · AA |
26 | 40 | 44→45 | 46→50 | 47 | .202/.274/.315 | .113 | .256 | 13 | 9 | 26% | 8% | 63 | -0.8 | .197/.268/.291 | .094 | .267 | 8 | 12 | 27% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .179/.254/.254 | .075 | .248 | 5 | 15 | 28% | 8% | 37 | -1.7 |
|
✕Wynston Sawyer 2018 · AA |
26 | 46 | 42→45 | 45 | 46 | .223/.294/.332 | .110 | .289 | 9 | 7 | 25% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 | .221/.292/.327 | .106 | .299 | 9 | 5 | 27% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 | .206/.283/.301 | .095 | .286 | 7 | 0 | 28% | 6% | 61 | -0.2 |
|
✕Paul Gran 2012 · AA |
26 | 46→45 | 42→45 | 49→50 | 40 | .220/.281/.332 | .112 | .303 | 9 | 9 | 29% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .207/.278/.313 | .106 | .301 | 8 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .194/.275/.284 | .090 | .287 | 7 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 56 | -0.9 |
|
✕Steve Holm 2006 · AA |
26 | 42 | 43→50 | 47→40 | 43 | .208/.266/.315 | .106 | .263 | 11 | 7 | 25% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .225/.292/.374 | .149 | .273 | 18 | 4 | 24% | 7% | 86 | +0.8 | .231/.308/.383 | .152 | .272 | 18 | 2 | 22% | 8% | 92 | +0.5 |
|
✕Devin Lohman 2015 · AA |
26 | 43→46 | 41→40 | 47→50 | 43 | .213/.269/.308 | .095 | .266 | 9 | 14 | 23% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.258/.288 | .083 | .276 | 7 | 10 | 27% | 5% | 49 | -1.8 | .168/.222/.210 | .042 | .241 | 2 | 8 | 29% | 5% | 11 | -1.5 |
|
✕Mike Ahmed 2018 · AAA |
26 | 44→46 | 45→50 | 46→50 | 44 | .216/.285/.341 | .124 | .300 | 13 | 11 | 31% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .205/.263/.320 | .115 | .324 | 12 | 8 | 38% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .187/.242/.291 | .104 | .306 | 10 | 6 | 40% | 5% | 41 | -1.0 |
|
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA |
26 | 40 | 43→45 | 46→40 | 47 | .199/.281/.306 | .107 | .269 | 11 | 4 | 29% | 9% | 65 | -0.7 | .203/.295/.294 | .091 | .287 | 7 | 4 | 29% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .185/.302/.243 | .058 | .271 | 3 | 0 | 28% | 13% | 55 | -0.7 |
|
✕Danny Mendick 2019 · AA |
25 | 42→48 | 43→45 | 46→50 | 45 | .209/.269/.320 | .111 | .254 | 11 | 12 | 22% | 6% | 63 | -0.9 | .225/.286/.348 | .123 | .273 | 14 | 13 | 22% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .231/.290/.367 | .136 | .277 | 16 | 15 | 22% | 7% | 79 | +0.2 |
|
✕Erick Monzon 2008 · AA |
26 | 42 | 44→45 | 51→50 | 44 | .209/.262/.329 | .120 | .261 | 11 | 9 | 24% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .191/.243/.292 | .101 | .264 | 11 | 12 | 30% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .166/.216/.251 | .085 | .234 | 11 | 14 | 33% | 6% | 18 | -1.6 |
|
✕Alex De Goti 2021 · AAA |
26 | 45→46 | 45 | 43→50 | 43 | .228/.278/.354 | .127 | .278 | 13 | 7 | 23% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .203/.274/.305 | .102 | .277 | 8 | 8 | 28% | 8% | 61 | -1.0 | .191/.273/.268 | .077 | .259 | 6 | 10 | 26% | 9% | 48 | -1.1 |
|
✕Adam Fox 2008 · AAA |
26 | 46→44 | 44→50 | 45 | 45 | .227/.278/.346 | .120 | .268 | 12 | 8 | 20% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .211/.261/.338 | .127 | .264 | 14 | 8 | 25% | 5% | 63 | -0.8 | .192/.236/.332 | .141 | .234 | 17 | 7 | 27% | 5% | 48 | -0.8 |
|
✕Hunter Brown 2006 · AAA |
26 | 47→45 | 43→45 | 47→50 | 43 | .230/.289/.349 | .119 | .294 | 10 | 12 | 24% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .223/.288/.337 | .114 | .294 | 9 | 13 | 26% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .213/.286/.320 | .107 | .284 | 7 | 14 | 26% | 9% | 66 | -0.5 |