Justin JohnsonSS Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 26 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR -5%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.1 · 2027
wRC+†41
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .280 / .318
PA250
HR4
SB7
K%26
BB%8
MLB%2%
BAT: -16.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-17BATRUN: +1.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +7.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: -0.60-0.6WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
4040
PWR
4545
SPD
4545
EYE
4940
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Arb-1$0.8M
2030Arb-2$0.9M
2031Arb-3$0.9M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.2M
2033Ext / FA-deal$0.4M
2034Ext / FA-deal$0.6M
Totals $-0.6M $-12M -$12M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202323 A+Quad Cities River Bandits 126112 19300 9323 41 .170.250.196.446 .027.235 257 .216 24 -11 +0 +0 +1 +4 -0.6
202424 A+Quad Cities River Bandits 400348 681713 38949 165 .195.291.276.567 .080.255 2410 .252 51 -22 +1 +0 +4 +11 -0.5
202525 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 323296 551207 19943 71 .186.242.297.539 .111.241 296 .234 37 -23 +1 +0 +3 +9 -0.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
202626 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 4441 4200 3190 20 .098.159.146.305 .049.182 437 .136 -38 -7 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.5
ROS26 MLBKC 206187 37903 15572 51 .198.265.294.559 .096.268 287 .262 58 -10 +1 +0 +2 +6 -0.1
TOT26 MLBKC 250228 411103 18762 71 .180.246.268.514 .088.253 307 .239 41 -17 +1 +0 +3 +7 -0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202727 MLB 11%KC 265239 501115 21623 51 .209.281.326.608 .117.258 238 .271 66 -10 +1 +0 +3 +8 0.1
202828 MLB 22%KC 316284 601316 25754 61 .211.284.327.612 .116.261 248 .274 68 -11 +1 -1 +3 +9 0.1
202929 MLB 34%KC 342307 641416 28814 51 .208.283.319.602 .111.261 248 .274 68 -12 +1 -1 +4 +10 0.0
203030 MLB 44%KC 358322 671516 29864 51 .208.282.317.598 .109.261 248 .273 67 -13 +1 -2 +4 +10 -0.1
203131 MLB 53%KC 355319 661516 29874 40 .207.281.317.598 .110.259 258 .269 64 -14 +1 -3 +4 +10 -0.3
203232 MLB 71%KC 345310 641416 28864 30 .206.281.316.597 .110.258 258 .264 60 -15 +1 -4 +4 +10 -0.5
203333 MLB 88%KC 320288 581315 26823 30 .201.274.306.580 .104.256 268 .259 56 -16 +1 -4 +3 +9 -0.7
203434 MLBKC 279252 491104 22743 20 .194.267.286.553 .091.254 278 .253 51 -15 +0 -5 +3 +8 -0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 36353264 657147857 28991046 6512 .201.276.304.579 .102.259 258 .261 58 -174 +8 -20 +39 +103 -4.4
/ 162G 650584 11726110 521638 122 .200.275.300.575 .099.258 258 .261 58 -31 +2 -4 +7 +18 -0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202323 A+Quad Cities River Bandits 126109 22400 12253 41 .202.298.239.537 .037.259 2010 .254 53 -7 +0 +4 -0.3
202424 A+Quad Cities River Bandits 400334 792413 51769 165 .237.352.341.693 .105.293 1913 .318 101 +1 +1 +11 1.3
202525 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals 323285 661508 29743 71 .232.308.368.677 .137.280 239 .301 89 -4 +1 +9 0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Justin Johnson (OGILVIE) 26 40 45 45 40 .210/.280/.318 .108.275 45 26% 8% 67 -0.2
Jake Kahaulelio
2011 · AA
26 45→44 43→45 48→45 43 .222/.277/.340 .118.275 108 23% 6% 71 -0.3 .209/.277/.314 .105.255 98 21% 7% 65 -0.7 .184/.266/.264.080.2216819%7%45-0.8
T.J. White
2018 · AA
26 44→46 44→45 48→45 43 .216/.278/.335 .119.273 108 25% 6% 70 -0.3 .209/.266/.341 .132.283 147 30% 6% 67 -0.5 .144/.194/.244.100.19614335%4%7-1.1
Quincy McAfee
2023 · AA
25 39 43→45 43→45 46 .192/.280/.301 .108.265 117 30% 9% 63 -0.8 .198/.277/.336 .138.251 1610 27% 7% 71 -0.3 .186/.266/.336.150.221181225%7%63-0.5
Drew Jackson
2019 · AA
26 42→45 44→45 50→55 43 .210/.281/.323 .113.279 1117 28% 7% 69 -0.4 .198/.276/.314 .116.288 1220 33% 8% 65 -0.7 .181/.268/.277.096.287102537%9%49-0.8
Sean Jamieson
2015 · AA
26 47→46 43→45 48→50 44 .228/.288/.348 .120.291 1010 25% 7% 77 +0.1 .225/.285/.323 .098.319 89 30% 7% 69 -0.4 .210/.277/.287.076.3166833%7%53-0.7
Dominic Miroglio
2022 · AA
27 41 44→45 44→40 43 .205/.269/.321 .117.279 115 30% 7% 63 -0.9 .216/.284/.361 .145.260 155 23% 8% 80 +0.4 .203/.270/.374.171.21220216%7%72-0.1
Patrick Brady
2014 · AA
26 46 45→50 44→45 45 .230/.279/.353 .124.278 129 22% 6% 75 -0.0 .215/.261/.336 .121.291 1210 29% 6% 63 -0.9 .199/.249/.307.108.28491132%6%46-0.7
Tres Barrera
2021 · AA
26 44→43 42→45 44→40 43 .218/.271/.324 .106.273 105 24% 6% 64 -0.8 .213/.282/.319 .106.270 113 24% 8% 68 -0.5 .200/.272/.301.102.25012124%8%55-0.6
Jordan Tarsovich
2017 · AA
26 40 44→45 46→50 47 .202/.274/.315 .113.256 139 26% 8% 63 -0.8 .197/.268/.291 .094.267 812 27% 8% 54 -1.4 .179/.254/.254.075.24851528%8%37-1.7
Wynston Sawyer
2018 · AA
26 46 42→45 45 46 .223/.294/.332 .110.289 97 25% 8% 76 +0.1 .221/.292/.327 .106.299 95 27% 7% 74 -0.1 .206/.283/.301.095.2867028%6%61-0.2
Paul Gran
2012 · AA
26 46→45 42→45 49→50 40 .220/.281/.332 .112.303 99 29% 6% 70 -0.3 .207/.278/.313 .106.301 810 32% 6% 65 -0.7 .194/.275/.284.090.28771032%6%56-0.9
Steve Holm
2006 · AA
26 42 43→50 47→40 43 .208/.266/.315 .106.263 117 25% 6% 59 -1.1 .225/.292/.374 .149.273 184 24% 7% 86 +0.8 .231/.308/.383.152.27218222%8%92+0.5
Devin Lohman
2015 · AA
26 43→46 41→40 47→50 43 .213/.269/.308 .095.266 914 23% 6% 59 -1.1 .205/.258/.288 .083.276 710 27% 5% 49 -1.8 .168/.222/.210.042.2412829%5%11-1.5
Mike Ahmed
2018 · AAA
26 44→46 45→50 46→50 44 .216/.285/.341 .124.300 1311 31% 8% 74 -0.1 .205/.263/.320 .115.324 128 38% 6% 59 -1.1 .187/.242/.291.104.30610640%5%41-1.0
Ryan Ortiz
2014 · AAA
26 40 43→45 46→40 47 .199/.281/.306 .107.269 114 29% 9% 65 -0.7 .203/.295/.294 .091.287 74 29% 10% 67 -0.5 .185/.302/.243.058.2713028%13%55-0.7
Danny Mendick
2019 · AA
25 42→48 43→45 46→50 45 .209/.269/.320 .111.254 1112 22% 6% 63 -0.9 .225/.286/.348 .123.273 1413 22% 7% 77 +0.1 .231/.290/.367.136.277161522%7%79+0.2
Erick Monzon
2008 · AA
26 42 44→45 51→50 44 .209/.262/.329 .120.261 119 24% 6% 61 -1.0 .191/.243/.292 .101.264 1112 30% 6% 43 -2.2 .166/.216/.251.085.234111433%6%18-1.6
Alex De Goti
2021 · AAA
26 45→46 45 43→50 43 .228/.278/.354 .127.278 137 23% 6% 75 -0.0 .203/.274/.305 .102.277 88 28% 8% 61 -1.0 .191/.273/.268.077.25961026%9%48-1.1
Adam Fox
2008 · AAA
26 46→44 44→50 45 45 .227/.278/.346 .120.268 128 20% 6% 72 -0.2 .211/.261/.338 .127.264 148 25% 5% 63 -0.8 .192/.236/.332.141.23417727%5%48-0.8
Hunter Brown
2006 · AAA
26 47→45 43→45 47→50 43 .230/.289/.349 .119.294 1012 24% 6% 79 +0.3 .223/.288/.337 .114.294 913 26% 8% 75 -0.0 .213/.286/.320.107.28471426%9%66-0.5