Justin Johnson

SS Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424A+KC400.237/.352/.34131655—.192/.286/.272
202525AANorthwest Ark…323.232/.308/.3688745—.186/.242/.287
202626AANorthwest Ark…362.205/.296/.385131145—.162/.235/.297
2027PROJMLE27MLBKC3.195/.262/.3100064-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB28MLBKC45.195/.263/.3101164-0.0
Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
ISO67
K%52
Z-Con%40
Whiff%38
BB%37
Chase%35
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsPatrick Brady (age 27) · Angelo Castellano (age 27) · David Thompson (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .262 / .310
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%6
BABIP257
ISO113
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.00.02728
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202323 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 126109 22400 12253 41 202298239537 37259 2010 254 30 — — — — — —
202424 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 400334 792413 51769 165 237352341693 105293 1913 318 55 — — — — — —
202525 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 323285 661508 29743 71 232308368677 137280 239 301 45 — — — — — —
202626 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 362317 6518013 33888 116 205296385681 180237 249 303 45 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202323 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 126112 19300 9323 41 170250196446 27236 257 213 30 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 400349 671713 37949 165 192286272558 80244 249 250 55 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 323296 551206 19883 71 186242287529 101232 276 234 45 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 362327 5314010 231088 116 162235297531 135199 306 235 45 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 126112 19300 9323 41 170250196446 27235 257 213 30 — — — — — —
202323 A+ RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 126109 22400 12253 41 202298239537 37259 2010 254 30 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 400349 671713 37949 165 192286272558 80250 249 250 55 — — — — — —
202424 A+ RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 400334 792413 51769 165 237352341693 105293 1913 318 55 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 323296 551206 19883 71 186242287529 101238 276 234 45 — — — — — —
202525 AA RAWNorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 323285 661508 29743 71 232308368677 137280 239 301 45 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 362327 5314010 231088 116 162235297531 135203 306 235 45 — — — — — —
202626 AA RAWNorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 362317 6518013 33888 116 205296385681 180237 249 303 45 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 126113 19300 9323 41 168250195445 27236 257 213 30 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 400351 671713 37949 165 191286271557 80244 249 250 55 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 323298 551206 19883 71 185242285527 101232 276 234 45 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 362328 5314010 231088 116 162235296530 134199 306 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 400351 671713 37949 165 191286271557 80244 249 250 55 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 323298 551206 19883 71 185242285527 101232 276 234 45 — — — — — —
202626 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 362328 5314010 231088 116 162235296530 134199 306 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLEKC 2% 380345 681618 261086 83 197264317582 120259 287 263 64 -16 +0 +0 +4 +8 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXKC 2% 33 0000 010 00 195262310571 115257 330 259 64 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLEKC 27% 166152 29703 11472 31 198265318583 120260 287 263 64 -7 +0 -1 +2 +4 -0.2
202828 MLB CTXKC 27% 4541 8201 3131 10 195263310573 115258 297 259 64 -2 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4541 8201 3131 10 195267317584 122259 297 259 50 -2 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650592 11529014 4318814 140 194265314579 120259 297 259 50 -28 +3 -3 +7 +14 -0.7
Career— MLE — 15321378 25160125 10941327 4415 182256282537 99237 277 243 50 -14 +0 -1 +3 +7 -0.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 10625011 4617511 196 181254280534 99235 277 243 50 -28 +1 -1 +7 +14 -0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 362 PAwOBA .298 → .235 (−63)K% 24.3% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.31%÷1.000×1.220——29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.12%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9886.30%
HBP% /PA2.21%—×0.870—×0.9881.90%
Singles /BIP14.85%÷1.000×0.920×0.962×0.98812.99%
Doubles /BIP7.86%÷1.000×0.840×0.962×0.9886.28%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×0.962×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP5.68%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9884.49%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .298 → .235; ISO .180 → .140; BABIP .237 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 323 PAwOBA .297 → .234 (−63)K% 22.9% → 27.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.91%÷1.022×1.220——27.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.98%÷1.059×0.700—×0.9985.92%
HBP% /PA0.93%—×0.870—×0.9980.81%
Singles /BIP20.38%÷1.034×0.920×0.952×0.99817.23%
Doubles /BIP7.11%÷0.984×0.840×0.952×0.9985.77%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.940×0.952×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP3.79%÷1.077×0.800—×0.9982.81%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .297 → .234; ISO .137 → .106; BABIP .280 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 400 PAwOBA .313 → .250 (−64)K% 19.0% → 23.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.00%÷1.024×1.270——23.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.75%÷0.967×0.710—×0.9889.25%
HBP% /PA2.25%—×0.790—×0.9881.76%
Singles /BIP19.77%÷0.988×0.920×0.975×0.98817.72%
Doubles /BIP9.30%÷1.113×0.810×0.975×0.9886.52%
Triples /BIP0.39%÷1.150×0.850×0.975×0.9880.28%
Home runs /BIP1.16%÷0.959×0.800—×0.9880.96%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .313 → .250; ISO .105 → .078; BABIP .293 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 126 PAwOBA .250 → .213 (−37)K% 19.8% → 25.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.84%÷1.005×1.270——25.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.52%÷0.929×0.710—×0.9987.27%
HBP% /PA2.38%—×0.790—×0.9981.88%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷0.997×0.920×1.006×0.99819.84%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷0.957×0.810×1.006×0.9984.04%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.908×0.850×1.006×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.033×0.800—×0.9980.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .250 → .213; ISO .037 → .031; BABIP .259 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).