Justin Johnson — OGILVIE

Justin JohnsonSS Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION192 act + 128 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.172 / .244 / .267

PA128

HR2

K%31

BB%7

BABIP240

ISO95

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	111	19	3	0	0	10	33	3	4	1	171	258	198	456	27	241	26	8	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	109	22	4	0	0	12	25	3	4	1	202	298	239	537	37	259	20	10	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	347	66	16	1	3	39	98	9	16	5	190	289	268	557	78	252	24	10	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	334	79	24	1	3	51	76	9	16	5	237	352	341	693	105	293	19	13	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	297	55	13	0	6	18	91	3	7	1	185	239	290	529	104	240	28	6	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	285	66	15	0	8	29	74	3	7	1	232	308	368	677	137	280	23	9	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	KC	—	192	172	20	7	0	2	14	66	5	9	3	116	204	192	396	76	171	34	7	187	1	-21	+1	+0	+2	+5	-1.4
YTD	26	AA	KC	—	192	165	24	9	0	2	21	51	5	9	3	145	262	236	498	91	195	27	11	239	41	-13	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.5
ROS	26	AA	KC	2%	128	116	20	5	0	2	9	40	2	4	1	172	244	267	511	95	239	31	7	232	36	-9	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
ROS	26	MLB	KC	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						236	33	0	216	24	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	AA	KC	—	195	175	20	7	0	2	14	67	5	9	3	114	201	189	390	74	168	34	7	187	2	-22	+1	+0	+2	+6	-1.4
TOT	26	AA	KC	—	320	288	40	12	0	4	23	106	7	13	4	139	220	222	442	83	200	33	7	205	15	-31	+1	+0	+3	+9	-1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	KC	27%	265	239	43	11	0	4	20	80	4	6	2	180	255	276	531	96	247	30	8	242	43	-17	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.6
2027	27	MLB	KC	27%	71	65	11	3	0	1	5	22	1	2	0	169	239	262	501	92	243	31	7	227	32	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	74	68	11	3	0	1	5	23	1	2	0	162	230	250	480	88	227	31	7	227	32	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	96	26	0	9	44	202	9	18	0	161	229	250	479	89	225	31	7	227	32	-50	+4	+0	+7	+18	-2.2
Career	—			—	1242	1110	203	48	1	15	96	342	21	37	10	183	261	268	529	86	246	28	8	238	41	-83	+3	+0	+13	+35	-3.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	107	25	1	8	50	179	11	19	5	184	262	272	534	88	247	28	8	238	41	-44	+2	+0	+7	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	126	109	22	4	0	0	12	25	3	4	1	202	298	239	537	37	259	20	10	254	53	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2024	24	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	400	334	79	24	1	3	51	76	9	16	5	237	352	341	693	105	293	19	13	318	101	+1	+1	—	—	+11	1.3
2025	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	323	285	66	15	0	8	29	74	3	7	1	232	308	368	677	137	280	23	9	301	89	-4	+1	—	—	+9	0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Johnson (OGILVIE)	26	40	45	45	40	139/220/222	83	200	4	13	33%	7%	15	-1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	39	42→45	45	42	196/255/296	101	271	9	9	30%	7%	50	-1.7	183/269/319	136	279	17	6	38%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Rick Hague 2015 · AA	26	42→46	40→45	47→50	39	204/246/294	90	275	7	10	28%	5%	45	-2.1	209/248/292	83	284	5	9	27%	5%	44	-2.1	204/235/274	70	277	1	6	26%	3%	31	-1.9
✕Angelo Castellano 2021 · AA	26	38→47	41→45	47→50	40	190/243/283	93	253	8	12	28%	6%	41	-2.3	200/261/306	106	256	12	12	26%	7%	56	-1.3	205/273/329	124	247	15	14	23%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Jake Wald 2007 · AA	26	40→42	42→45	45→50	38	199/251/302	103	275	10	9	31%	5%	50	-1.8	200/260/300	100	285	8	10	31%	6%	53	-1.5	194/260/293	99	278	7	10	31%	6%	47	-1.2
✕Errol Robinson 2021 · AAA	26	44→47	40	46→55	41	214/265/299	85	290	8	13	28%	6%	54	-1.4	203/274/275	72	321	5	17	35%	8%	53	-1.5	204/277/255	51	317	3	26	33%	8%	45	-0.7
✕Jio Mier 2017 · AAA	26	42→43	40	44→50	44	204/261/293	89	265	7	8	25%	7%	52	-1.6	204/249/297	93	277	8	8	28%	5%	47	-1.9	182/218/256	73	255	5	3	30%	3%	21	-1.6
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	36	39→50	50→55	40	177/243/264	88	262	6	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	198/276/337	139	318	16	16	40%	8%	71	-0.3	186/272/335	149	306	19	19	42%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Ryan Dent 2015 · AAA	26	43→42	39→40	48→50	41	205/260/292	87	283	6	14	28%	6%	51	-1.7	205/259/297	92	293	7	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	207/252/299	92	298	8	3	32%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Aaron Schunk 2023 · AA	26	39→42	44→45	48→50	36	200/246/316	117	282	12	9	33%	5%	51	-1.7	211/256/324	113	294	11	10	30%	5%	57	-1.2	209/254/319	110	274	10	10	27%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕J.P. Sportman 2018 · AA	26	43→44	43→45	50	38	213/250/328	115	278	11	13	28%	4%	56	-1.3	220/256/360	140	283	16	14	28%	4%	67	-0.5	218/248/369	151	271	18	17	27%	3%	63	-0.7
✕Matt Whatley 2022 · AA	26	40→36	38→40	45→50	44	192/263/267	75	276	7	14	31%	8%	46	-2.0	190/249/283	93	268	11	9	32%	6%	45	-2.1	167/230/254	87	226	12	8	31%	6%	27	-1.2
✕Jason Leblebijian 2017 · AA	26	42→46	42→45	46→45	38	205/257/307	102	303	10	9	34%	6%	53	-1.5	208/265/322	114	315	12	7	36%	6%	61	-1.0	198/259/314	117	295	13	5	36%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Luis Carpio 2022 · AA	25	42→43	42→45	41→50	42	209/266/314	105	285	10	8	29%	7%	59	-1.1	199/258/294	95	287	8	12	32%	7%	50	-1.7	168/231/234	66	247	4	13	32%	7%	21	-1.7
✕Mark Thomas 2014 · AA	26	38→43	41→50	48→45	38	190/236/293	103	261	8	6	30%	5%	41	-2.3	174/226/301	127	262	13	5	38%	5%	40	-2.4	145/196/291	146	204	17	3	38%	5%	21	-1.4
✕Seaver Whalen 2021 · A	26	40	39→50	48→50	39	196/264/283	86	269	7	6	29%	5%	52	-1.6	206/275/335	129	269	13	10	28%	4%	70	-0.3	170/246/316	147	208	17	10	27%	3%	53	-0.5
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	44→50	45→50	38	185/252/306	121	279	11	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	189/263/296	107	295	8	13	36%	7%	54	-1.4	160/248/262	103	254	7	16	37%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Wade Gaynor 2014 · AA	26	37→42	44→50	49→50	38	187/247/304	117	274	11	9	35%	6%	49	-1.8	183/227/309	126	266	13	12	35%	5%	42	-2.3	165/204/292	127	233	14	13	35%	4%	24	-2.6
✕Gift Ngoepe 2016 · AAA	26	44→40	42→45	45→50	38	209/263/317	108	312	9	11	35%	6%	59	-1.1	202/261/316	114	320	11	7	38%	7%	58	-1.2	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Rylan Sandoval 2014 · AAA	26	41	40	45	37	201/253/290	89	292	7	7	32%	5%	47	-1.9	218/269/306	88	322	7	9	32%	6%	58	-1.2	226/265/276	50	355	4	4	36%	5%	43	-0.4