Dariel Polanco

P ACL Padres

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 150 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKSD	15	1	37	5.79	2.51	16.3%	4.1%	—	K 11.1% · BB 5.1% · FIP 3.25
2026	20	ROKSD	22	0	43	4.22	4.11	28.5%	8.1%	—	K 19.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 6.05
2027PROJ	21	MLBSD	24	0	25	4.61	4.61	19.2%	8.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSD	19	0	20	4.47	4.40	20.8%	8.0%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsKyle Zurak (age 22) · Jake Elliott (age 21) · Huei-Sheng Lin (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%19.2%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	8	1	16	79	7	6	1	12%	2.0	6.0%	9.5%	-3.5%	1.9%	3.38	4.84	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	8	1	16	79	7	6	1	12%	2.0	8.9%	7.6%	1.3%	1.3%	3.38	4.16	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	50	203	24	8	6	91%	4.5	8.0%	4.9%	3.1%	4.6%	3.24	5.55	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	50	203	24	8	6	91%	4.5	8.0%	4.9%	3.1%	4.6%	3.24	5.55	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	50	203	24	8	6	91%	4.5	11.8%	3.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.24	4.18	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	15	1	37	172	28	7	1	7%	2.5	11.1%	5.1%	6.0%	0.8%	5.79	3.25	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	15	1	37	172	28	7	1	7%	2.5	11.1%	5.1%	6.0%	0.8%	5.79	3.25	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	15	1	37	172	28	7	1	7%	2.5	16.3%	4.1%	12.2%	0.6%	5.79	2.51	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	22	0	43	186	53	15	8	0%	1.9	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	6.0%	4.22	6.05	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	22	0	43	186	53	15	8	0%	1.9	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	6.0%	4.22	6.05	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	22	0	43	186	53	15	8	0%	1.9	28.5%	8.1%	20.4%	4.3%	4.22	4.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SD	24	0	25	106	20	9	3	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	38	0	40	170	35	14	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	19	0	20	84	18	7	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	84	17	7	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.02	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	71	30	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		56	12	146	640	76	45	23	21%	2.6	11.9%	7.0%	4.9%	3.6%	4.19	4.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	16	200	877	104	62	32	21%	2.6	11.9%	7.0%	4.9%	3.6%	4.19	4.99	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dariel Polanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	19.2%	8.2%	3.1%	—	4.40	20.8%	12.8%	40	-0.21	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	90
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	87
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	87
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	86
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	85
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	84
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	84
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	84
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	84
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	84
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	84
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	83
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	83
Michael Bowden R 2009 · 4.96 FIP	22	SU	4.96	16.0%	8.0%	4.0%	.370	4.45	19.3%	9.7%	75	-0.51	3.21	269	83
Dan Wheeler R 2000 · 3.82 FIP	22	SW	3.82	15.3%	8.1%	1.8%	.325	4.16	15.7%	9.7%	69	+0.34	2.77	641	82
Irving Cota R 2024 · 5.05 FIP	20	SU	5.05	18.9%	8.1%	4.6%	.279	3.64	14.3%	7.7%	109	-1.41	2.49	194	82
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	82
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	82
Davis Martin R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SW	3.59	16.3%	8.2%	1.5%	.317	4.71	18.9%	10.7%	233	+1.12	3.59	749	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	20.2%	8.1%	1.19	4.52
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*