Spencer Nivens

OF Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 25 L/R 5'11" / 185 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	AANorthwest Ark…	515	.250/.354/.346	6	14	61	—	.211/.283/.289
2026	24	AANorthwest Ark…	450	.280/.371/.446	9	17	89	—	.243/.310/.377
2027PROJ2% MLB	25	MLBKC	6	.222/.292/.337	0	0	80	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	26	MLBKC	113	.223/.294/.341	2	2	82	-0.1
2029PROJ42% MLB	27	MLBKC	163	.223/.294/.342	3	3	82	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%88

Whiff%88

Chase%87

Z-Con%85

wOBA72

Speed70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsLuis González (age 25) · Danry Vasquez (age 25) · Nathan Panther (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .292 / .337

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%17

BABIP281

ISO115

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	122	98	18	3	0	2	23	20	0	7	3	184	339	276	614	92	208	16	19	294	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK	ACL Royals	—	17	16	5	4	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	312	353	562	915	250	357	12	6	396	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	358	87	17	3	20	48	111	2	7	4	243	336	475	811	232	290	27	12	354	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	436	109	20	2	6	70	109	0	14	3	250	354	346	700	96	312	21	14	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	450	386	108	29	4	9	55	75	1	17	4	280	371	446	817	166	320	17	12	358	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	122	105	15	2	0	1	16	29	0	7	3	143	256	190	447	48	181	24	13	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	17	16	4	3	0	0	1	3	0	1	1	250	294	438	732	188	256	18	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	371	69	11	2	16	35	138	2	7	4	186	260	356	616	170	236	33	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	460	97	17	2	5	46	130	0	14	3	211	283	289	572	78	271	25	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	450	403	98	25	4	7	38	91	1	17	4	243	310	377	687	134	283	20	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	139	121	18	5	0	1	17	31	0	8	4	149	254	215	468	66	189	22	12	230	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	139	114	23	7	0	2	24	22	0	8	4	202	341	316	656	114	231	16	17	306	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	371	69	11	2	16	35	138	2	7	4	186	260	356	616	170	240	33	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	358	87	17	3	20	48	111	2	7	4	243	336	475	811	232	290	27	12	354	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	460	97	17	2	5	46	130	0	14	3	211	283	289	572	78	275	25	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	436	109	20	2	6	70	109	0	14	3	250	354	346	700	96	312	21	14	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	450	403	98	25	4	7	38	91	1	17	4	243	310	377	687	134	292	20	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	450	386	108	29	4	9	55	75	1	17	4	280	371	446	817	166	320	17	12	358	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	139	121	18	5	0	1	17	31	0	8	4	149	254	215	468	66	190	22	12	230	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	372	69	11	2	16	35	138	2	7	4	185	260	355	615	169	236	33	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	464	97	17	2	5	46	130	0	14	3	209	283	287	569	78	271	25	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	450	408	98	25	4	7	38	91	1	17	4	240	310	373	683	132	283	20	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	412	372	69	11	2	16	35	138	2	7	4	185	260	355	615	169	236	33	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	515	464	97	17	2	5	46	130	0	14	3	209	283	287	569	78	271	25	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	450	408	98	25	4	7	38	91	1	17	4	240	310	373	683	132	283	20	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	2%	380	343	77	17	2	6	33	90	1	8	2	224	294	343	637	118	283	24	9	287	80	-9	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	2%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	222	292	337	629	115	281	17	17	283	80	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	31%	365	329	75	16	2	7	32	87	1	8	2	226	296	348	643	122	283	24	9	289	82	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	42%	388	350	79	17	2	7	34	92	1	8	2	226	296	348	644	122	283	24	9	289	82	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	48%	401	362	80	17	2	7	35	96	1	7	2	225	295	346	642	121	283	24	9	288	81	-9	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	49%	400	361	80	17	2	7	35	97	1	6	2	223	294	343	637	120	282	24	9	287	80	-9	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	31%	113	102	23	5	1	2	10	27	0	2	1	223	294	341	635	118	281	24	9	286	82	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	42%	163	148	33	7	1	3	14	39	0	3	1	223	294	342	635	118	281	24	9	286	82	-3	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	48%	192	172	38	8	1	3	17	46	1	3	1	222	293	340	633	118	281	24	9	285	81	-4	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	49%	197	177	38	8	1	3	17	48	1	3	1	221	291	337	628	116	280	24	9	283	80	-5	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	665	599	132	28	4	11	58	160	2	11	4	220	291	336	627	115	280	24	9	285	76	-15	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	129	27	4	11	57	156	2	11	4	221	292	337	629	116	280	24	9	285	76	-15	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3390	3045	661	139	18	62	300	838	8	82	25	217	289	336	625	119	275	25	9	281	76	-42	+3	-2	-11	+41	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	127	27	3	12	58	161	2	16	5	217	291	336	626	118	276	25	9	281	76	-15	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.0	672	12	12	226	293	347	-4	+0	0.0	0.0
/162	664	12	12	-4.0	+0.0	0.0	pk7: 0
#5Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0
#6Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Nivens (OGILVIE)	25	45	35	50	60	222/292/340	117	283	5	7	24%	9%	80	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis González 2021 · AA	25	46→51	43→45	47→50	45	224/276/334	110	278	10	12	23%	6%	72	-0.7	230/299/344	114	295	12	18	24%	8%	83	+0.1	233/309/345	112	298	11	22	24%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Danry Vasquez 2019 · AA	25	48→55	42→40	49→45	48	234/286/342	108	269	9	13	17%	6%	78	-0.3	234/293/386	152	285	18	19	24%	7%	91	+0.6	225/286/400	174	252	23	34	21%	8%	88	+0.1
✕Nathan Panther 2006 · AA	25	44→43	44→45	47→45	48	220/286/337	116	272	12	9	24%	8%	77	-0.3	219/285/335	116	273	11	7	23%	8%	76	-0.4	217/285/336	119	267	11	5	22%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Drew Heid 2013 · AAA	25	48→57	40	47→50	50	230/295/315	85	275	8	14	19%	8%	75	-0.5	234/291/323	89	299	6	10	22%	7%	75	-0.5	245/300/335	90	316	5	9	23%	7%	78	-0.2
✕River Town 2024 · A	25	44→38	42→40	54→50	49	216/299/317	102	268	10	18	22%	8%	78	-0.3	215/304/301	86	265	6	11	20%	9%	76	-0.4	191/302/252	61	231	2	5	16%	11%	65	-0.5
✕Francisco Ferreiro 2019 · AAA	25	47→55	41→40	46→45	44	227/275/332	105	282	8	11	22%	6%	71	-0.8	245/289/342	97	316	6	8	23%	6%	78	-0.3	258/298/345	87	333	3	5	22%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Nick Baligod 2013 · A	25	47	44→40	49→45	46	230/287/345	115	286	11	7	23%	7%	78	-0.3	231/283/318	87	263	6	7	14%	6%	70	-0.8	231/284/306	75	258	5	6	12%	6%	65	-0.7
✕Cal Stevenson 2022 · AA	25	46→56	43→45	50→60	51	225/299/334	109	288	11	16	25%	10%	81	-0.1	236/322/347	111	309	10	24	24%	11%	93	+0.8	243/336/358	114	313	9	30	23%	12%	99	+0.7
✕Mitch Longo 2021 · AA	26	45→44	42→45	52→50	42	220/270/327	107	284	8	13	25%	6%	68	-1.0	225/271/360	135	292	15	18	27%	5%	76	-0.4	220/264/362	141	281	16	22	27%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Robert Neustrom 2022 · AAA	25	45	45	50	44	223/281/355	132	286	12	10	26%	7%	79	-0.2	217/272/352	135	260	15	14	22%	6%	75	-0.5	199/250/329	130	224	16	17	20%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Mike Papi 2018 · AAA	25	44→48	44→45	44→45	49	216/293/330	114	281	12	6	26%	9%	78	-0.3	219/293/330	111	301	10	6	28%	9%	78	-0.3	206/288/313	107	297	8	1	31%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Nick Sogard 2023 · AAA	25	46→50	42→45	51→50	49	225/293/327	103	281	10	15	23%	8%	77	-0.3	231/304/328	97	295	8	16	23%	9%	82	-0.0	234/315/336	103	297	9	13	22%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	195/273/300	105	283	8	8	32%	9%	63	-1.3	215/297/319	104	298	10	14	29%	8%	78	-0.3	219/303/314	95	294	10	19	27%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Austin Krum 2011 · AA	25	49→52	38→40	49→50	49	231/297/310	80	294	5	12	22%	8%	74	-0.5	233/294/310	77	300	4	18	22%	7%	73	-0.6	239/300/305	66	311	2	23	22%	7%	72	-0.7
✕Sherman Johnson 2016 · AA	26	42→49	43→45	52→50	53	206/286/321	114	251	10	14	22%	10%	73	-0.6	203/282/306	103	262	8	14	24%	9%	68	-1.0	200/275/291	91	273	7	11	27%	9%	59	-0.9
✕Matt Rudick 2024 · AAA	26	44→43	43→45	54→50	52	213/301/328	114	255	11	17	20%	9%	81	-0.1	208/293/317	109	268	10	13	24%	9%	76	-0.4	188/280/287	99	245	9	14	25%	9%	62	-0.9
✕Mike Daniel 2010 · AAA	25	49→53	42→45	50	42	238/287/345	106	308	9	14	25%	6%	78	-0.3	214/266/303	89	275	7	16	23%	6%	61	-1.5	183/233/244	61	235	4	20	23%	5%	32	-2.3
✕Reid Fronk 2011 · A	25	44→47	40→45	47→50	48	210/298/310	100	284	6	9	26%	9%	76	-0.4	200/280/287	87	290	5	8	30%	9%	63	-1.3	169/254/245	76	255	4	4	32%	9%	43	-1.8
✕Conner Capel 2022 · AAA	25	43→48	47→45	47→55	44	220/275/354	133	275	15	10	26%	7%	76	-0.4	225/297/351	126	282	13	19	24%	9%	84	+0.2	216/295/337	121	272	12	22	24%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Forrest Wall 2021 · AAA	25	46→55	43→45	50→70	44	223/285/341	118	306	10	16	29%	7%	77	-0.3	227/287/321	94	329	6	45	30%	7%	73	-0.6	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3

Spencer Nivens

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps