Nate Knowles

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ROKTB	7	4	12	5.25	2.93	18.5%	11.1%	—	K 12.6% · BB 13.9% · FIP 3.80
2026	22	ATB	4	0	4	9.82	2.28	15.8%	5.3%	—	K 15.8% · BB 5.3% · FIP 2.43
2027PROJ	23	MLBTB	7	0	7	4.61	4.61	22.4%	10.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTB	9	0	9	4.49	4.44	23.0%	10.1%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJonathan Papelbon (age 24) · Todd Peterson (age 23) · Garrett Mock (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%22.4%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP7

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	7	4	12	54	10	6	0	57%	1.7	12.6%	13.9%	-1.3%	0.0%	5.25	3.80	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	7	4	12	54	10	6	0	57%	1.7	12.6%	13.9%	-1.3%	0.0%	5.25	3.80	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	7	4	12	54	10	6	0	57%	1.7	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	0.0%	5.25	2.93	—
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	4	0	4	19	3	1	0	0%	0.9	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	0.0%	9.82	2.43	—
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	4	0	4	19	3	1	0	0%	0.9	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	0.0%	9.82	2.43	—
2026	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	4	0	4	19	3	1	0	0%	0.9	15.8%	5.3%	10.5%	0.0%	9.82	2.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TB	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	19	9	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.06	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.1%	12.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		11	4	16	73	10	8	0	36%	1.4	13.4%	11.6%	1.8%	0.0%	6.32	3.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	51	200	932	125	109	0	36%	1.4	13.4%	11.6%	1.8%	0.0%	6.32	3.44	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Knowles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	22.4%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.44	23.0%	12.9%	20	-0.17	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	79
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	78
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	78
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	78
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	78
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	78
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	77
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	77
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	77
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	77
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	76
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	76
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	76
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	76
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	76
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	76
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	76