Rafael Martinez — OGILVIE

Rafael MartinezSS DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .270 / .277

PA4

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	95	21	5	0	0	11	23	3	3	4	221	321	274	595	53	284	21	10	277	74	-3	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	52	14	2	0	0	8	11	0	3	2	269	367	308	674	38	333	18	13	312	97	-0	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	99	16	3	0	0	7	33	3	3	4	162	239	192	430	30	236	30	6	204	24	-10	-1	—	—	+2	-0.9
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	11	1	0	0	5	16	0	3	2	200	267	218	485	18	265	26	8	226	39	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	99	16	3	0	0	7	33	3	3	4	162	239	192	430	30	235	30	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	95	21	5	0	0	11	23	3	3	4	221	321	274	595	53	284	21	10	277	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	11	1	0	0	5	16	0	3	2	200	267	218	485	18	275	26	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	52	14	2	0	0	8	11	0	3	2	269	367	308	674	38	333	18	13	312	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	100	16	3	0	0	7	33	3	3	4	160	239	190	429	30	236	30	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	56	11	1	0	0	5	16	0	3	2	196	267	214	481	18	265	26	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	100	16	3	0	0	7	33	3	3	4	160	239	190	429	30	236	30	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	56	11	1	0	0	5	16	0	3	2	196	267	214	481	18	265	26	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		288	25	0	253	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	116	106	23	4	1	1	8	32	1	2	0	217	278	302	580	85	290	28	7	264	65	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	261	237	52	9	1	4	19	70	3	4	1	219	286	316	602	97	291	27	7	273	71	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	365	331	74	13	2	6	27	96	4	5	1	224	290	329	619	106	292	26	7	278	74	-11	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	436	395	88	15	2	8	33	114	5	6	2	223	291	332	623	109	293	26	8	282	77	-12	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	478	434	98	17	3	9	36	125	5	7	2	226	293	341	634	115	293	26	8	284	78	-12	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	502	453	103	18	3	9	38	131	6	7	2	227	296	340	636	113	293	26	8	285	79	-13	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	514	464	105	18	3	10	39	135	6	7	2	226	295	343	637	116	293	26	8	285	79	-13	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	516	465	105	18	3	10	40	136	6	7	2	226	295	342	637	116	293	26	8	284	79	-13	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	511	460	103	18	3	9	40	136	6	6	2	224	294	335	629	111	292	27	8	283	77	-14	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	503	453	100	17	2	9	39	135	6	6	1	221	291	327	618	106	291	27	8	280	76	-15	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	40	37	7	1	0	0	3	11	0	1	0	189	250	216	466	27	291	28	8	259	65	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	126	115	25	4	1	2	9	34	1	2	0	217	280	322	602	104	292	27	7	267	71	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	198	179	40	7	1	3	15	52	2	3	1	223	291	324	615	101	293	26	8	273	74	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	242	219	49	9	1	4	18	63	3	3	1	224	292	329	620	105	294	26	7	277	77	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	268	243	55	10	1	5	20	70	3	4	1	226	293	337	631	111	295	26	7	279	78	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	282	256	58	10	1	6	21	74	3	4	1	227	293	344	637	117	295	26	7	280	79	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	284	257	58	10	1	6	22	74	3	4	1	226	294	342	637	117	295	26	8	280	79	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	283	256	58	10	1	6	22	75	3	4	1	227	295	344	639	117	294	27	8	279	79	-7	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	273	247	55	10	1	5	21	73	3	3	1	223	292	332	623	109	294	27	8	278	77	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	265	239	53	9	1	5	21	71	3	3	1	222	293	331	623	109	293	27	8	275	76	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2261	2048	458	80	9	42	172	597	24	31	8	224	291	333	624	109	293	26	8	277	75	-62	+3	-2	+24	+49	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	132	23	3	12	49	172	7	9	2	224	291	334	626	110	294	26	8	277	75	-18	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4378	3956	879	151	23	75	331	1160	51	63	21	222	291	329	620	107	293	26	8	279	75	-116	+5	-4	+45	+91	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	130	22	3	11	49	172	8	9	3	221	290	325	616	104	292	26	8	279	75	-18	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.5	2,309	40	31	224	289	333	+25	+18	2.7	2.6
/162	664	12	9	+7.1	+5.2	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Martinez (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	206/270/277	71	288	0	1	28%	7%	57	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→41	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	59	-1.7	214/277/357	143	320	16	4	36%	7%	78	-0.3	203/271/348	146	303	18	4	37%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	40	37→45	51→40	43	190/274/270	79	258	4	9	26%	6%	58	-1.7	202/252/288	86	301	6	4	33%	4%	53	-2.1	211/249/305	94	308	7	2	33%	3%	52	-1.1
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	57	-1.8	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	49	-2.4	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	191/260/268	77	304	6	15	36%	7%	51	-2.2	188/266/266	78	286	5	32	33%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	47	-2.5	186/287/267	81	289	6	15	34%	11%	63	-1.3	205/292/276	72	294	4	31	28%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Frank Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	40	36→45	48→30	43	191/262/259	68	272	4	4	30%	7%	50	-2.3	182/239/268	86	269	8	4	34%	5%	43	-2.8	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Daurys Mercedes 2010 · A	20	45	37→45	49→45	42	208/268/290	82	302	3	7	30%	7%	59	-1.7	186/256/250	64	315	2	7	38%	8%	46	-2.6	145/223/189	44	275	2	6	44%	8%	18	-1.4
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→50	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	52	-2.2	204/247/318	114	284	10	6	31%	5%	57	-1.8	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Jason Taylor 2008 · A	20	45→39	36→45	49→55	47	210/281/277	67	285	2	9	26%	8%	61	-1.5	211/283/328	117	266	11	19	24%	8%	74	-0.5	201/274/320	119	248	12	22	23%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Kenny Hart 2010 · A	20	42	38→45	48→50	41	200/273/277	77	292	5	6	31%	7%	59	-1.7	211/296/309	98	281	8	11	26%	7%	75	-0.5	199/298/306	107	253	9	15	23%	7%	75	-0.1
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Jose Bellorin 2011 · A	20	42	39→40	47→50	42	203/257/285	81	265	6	10	25%	6%	53	-2.1	223/280/308	85	271	6	9	19%	6%	68	-1.0	239/295/316	78	276	6	10	15%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2015 · A	20	38	35→45	42→50	41	179/245/239	60	279	2	8	34%	7%	39	-3.1	184/260/268	84	250	6	9	27%	8%	52	-2.2	174/259/268	94	224	8	11	24%	9%	50	-0.8
✕Liover Peguero 2021 · A	20	44→46	38→45	50→55	41	211/261/290	79	291	5	9	28%	6%	56	-1.9	222/265/337	115	305	11	22	30%	5%	68	-1.0	221/263/341	120	290	13	24	28%	5%	66	-1.0
✕Gavin Cecchini 2014 · A	20	42→52	37→45	46→45	41	199/250/271	71	282	4	7	29%	6%	47	-2.5	235/287/334	99	284	7	5	19%	7%	76	-0.4	249/301/348	99	293	7	5	17%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	40	-3.1	206/263/285	79	260	5	4	22%	6%	56	-1.9	227/270/319	92	275	7	1	19%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2011 · A	20	43	40→45	49→45	42	209/255/300	91	272	7	5	26%	6%	56	-1.9	218/253/304	86	275	8	5	23%	4%	56	-1.9	247/278/359	111	273	14	5	15%	4%	75	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps