Rafael Martinez — OGILVIE

Rafael MartinezSS DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .270 / .277

PA48

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	99	17	3	0	0	7	34	3	3	4	172	248	202	450	30	254	31	6	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	95	21	5	0	0	11	23	3	3	4	221	321	274	595	53	284	21	10	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	55	11	1	0	0	5	16	0	3	2	200	267	218	485	18	275	26	8	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	52	14	2	0	0	8	11	0	3	2	269	367	308	674	38	333	18	13	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	NYY	—	48	45	9	2	0	0	3	13	0	1	0	200	250	244	494	44	288	27	6	253	52	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	116	106	23	4	1	1	8	32	1	2	0	217	278	302	580	85	290	28	7	264	61	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	261	237	52	9	1	4	19	70	3	4	1	219	286	316	602	97	291	27	7	273	67	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	365	331	74	13	2	6	27	97	4	5	1	224	290	329	619	106	292	27	7	278	71	-12	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	436	395	88	15	2	8	33	115	5	6	2	223	291	332	623	109	293	26	8	282	74	-13	+0	+0	+5	+12	0.5
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	478	434	98	17	3	9	36	126	5	7	2	226	293	341	634	115	293	26	8	284	75	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.6
2032	26	MLB	NYY	56%	502	453	103	18	3	9	38	132	6	7	2	227	296	340	636	113	293	26	8	285	76	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.7
2033	27	MLB	NYY	60%	514	464	105	18	3	10	39	135	6	7	2	226	295	343	637	116	293	26	8	285	76	-14	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.7
2034	28	MLB	NYY	62%	516	465	105	18	3	10	40	137	6	7	2	226	295	342	637	116	293	27	8	284	76	-14	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.6
2035	29	MLB	NYY	63%	511	460	103	18	3	9	40	136	6	6	2	224	294	335	629	111	292	27	8	282	74	-15	+0	-1	+5	+14	0.4
2036	30	MLB	NYY	63%	503	453	100	17	2	9	39	135	6	6	1	221	291	327	618	106	291	27	8	280	72	-16	+1	-2	+5	+14	0.3
2037	31	MLB	NYY	65%	491	445	96	16	2	8	38	134	5	5	1	216	285	315	599	99	289	27	8	276	69	-17	+1	-3	+5	+14	-0.0
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	40	37	7	1	0	0	3	11	0	1	0	189	250	216	466	27	291	28	8	258	56	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	126	115	25	4	1	2	9	34	1	2	0	217	280	322	602	104	292	27	7	266	62	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	198	179	40	7	1	3	15	52	2	3	1	223	291	324	615	101	294	26	8	272	66	-8	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.0
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	242	219	49	9	1	4	18	64	3	3	1	224	292	329	620	105	295	26	7	276	69	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	268	243	55	10	1	5	20	70	3	4	1	226	293	337	631	111	295	26	7	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2032	26	MLB	NYY	56%	282	256	57	10	1	5	21	74	3	4	1	223	289	328	617	105	295	26	7	279	72	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2033	27	MLB	NYY	60%	306	276	63	11	2	6	24	81	3	4	1	228	297	348	645	120	295	26	8	279	72	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2034	28	MLB	NYY	62%	318	286	65	11	2	6	25	84	4	4	1	227	298	343	641	115	294	26	8	278	71	-10	+0	-0	+3	+9	0.2
2035	29	MLB	NYY	63%	320	288	65	11	2	6	25	85	4	4	1	226	297	340	637	115	294	27	8	276	70	-11	+0	-1	+3	+9	0.1
2036	30	MLB	NYY	63%	319	287	65	11	2	6	25	86	4	4	1	226	297	341	639	115	293	27	8	274	68	-12	+0	-1	+3	+9	-0.0
2037	31	MLB	NYY	65%	319	288	63	11	1	6	25	87	3	3	1	219	288	326	614	108	291	27	8	270	65	-13	+0	-2	+3	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2738	2474	554	96	14	49	210	728	30	36	9	224	293	333	626	110	295	27	8	275	69	-97	+4	-4	+29	+78	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	132	23	3	12	50	173	7	9	2	225	293	336	629	111	296	27	8	275	69	-23	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	4913	4442	984	169	25	83	372	1312	56	69	22	222	290	327	617	105	293	27	8	278	71	-160	+5	-7	+53	+139	3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	130	22	3	11	49	174	7	9	3	221	289	325	614	104	292	27	8	278	71	-21	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	111	95	21	5	0	0	11	23	3	3	4	221	321	274	595	53	284	21	10	277	70	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	61	52	14	2	0	0	8	11	0	3	2	269	367	308	674	38	333	18	13	312	97	-0	-0	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,787	48	36	223	289	331	+30	+21	2.5	2.4
	/162	664	12	9	223	289	331	+7.1	+5.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Martinez (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	206/270/277	71	288	0	1	28%	7%	52	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	40	37→45	51→40	43	190/274/270	79	258	4	9	26%	6%	53	-1.5	203/253/290	87	301	6	4	33%	4%	47	-1.9	213/250/309	96	311	7	2	33%	3%	47	-1.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	40	-2.4	186/288/267	81	287	6	15	33%	11%	59	-1.1	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	51	-1.7	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	42	-2.3	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	-1	-1.2
✕Daurys Mercedes 2010 · A	20	45	37→45	49→45	42	208/268/290	82	302	3	7	30%	7%	53	-1.5	186/256/250	64	315	2	7	38%	8%	39	-2.5	145/223/189	44	275	2	6	44%	8%	7	-1.4
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Jason Taylor 2008 · A	20	45→39	36→45	49→55	47	210/281/277	67	285	2	9	26%	8%	56	-1.3	210/283/328	118	265	11	19	24%	8%	70	-0.3	200/274/320	119	248	12	22	24%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Kenny Hart 2010 · A	20	42	38→45	48→50	41	200/273/277	77	292	5	6	31%	7%	53	-1.5	211/296/309	98	281	8	11	26%	7%	72	-0.2	199/298/306	107	253	9	15	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Luke Williams 2017 · A	20	46	36→45	50→60	47	215/283/280	65	292	3	11	26%	8%	57	-1.2	193/244/262	69	260	5	17	26%	6%	36	-2.7	230/291/360	130	317	13	42	30%	7%	79	+0.2
✕James Harris 2014 · A	20	36→46	36→40	46→50	42	175/238/243	68	248	3	10	29%	6%	29	-3.2	211/272/302	91	306	7	12	31%	7%	58	-1.2	225/287/315	90	321	7	14	30%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Jose Bellorin 2011 · A	20	42	39→40	47→50	42	203/257/285	81	265	6	10	25%	6%	47	-1.9	223/280/308	85	271	6	9	19%	6%	63	-0.8	239/295/316	78	276	6	10	15%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	191/251/266	76	262	4	12	28%	6%	40	-2.4	205/277/292	87	289	8	19	29%	8%	59	-1.1	203/290/292	89	267	11	29	26%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Franklin Tineo 2015 · A	20	38	35→45	42→50	41	179/245/239	60	279	2	8	34%	7%	31	-3.0	184/260/268	84	250	6	9	27%	8%	46	-2.0	174/259/268	94	224	8	11	24%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Gavin Cecchini 2014 · A	20	42→52	37→45	46→45	41	199/250/271	71	282	4	7	29%	6%	40	-2.4	233/284/333	100	284	7	5	19%	6%	71	-0.3	245/297/343	98	290	7	5	17%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	32	-3.0	206/263/288	82	261	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	226/269/325	99	274	9	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Stone Garrett 2016 · A	20	41→37	35→55	49→50	38	198/237/257	59	280	3	7	29%	5%	30	-3.1	166/207/247	81	303	6	8	45%	4%	16	-4.1	219/280/389	170	298	21	11	33%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2011 · A	20	43	40→45	49→45	42	209/255/300	91	272	7	5	26%	6%	50	-1.7	218/253/304	86	275	8	5	23%	4%	50	-1.7	247/278/359	111	273	14	5	15%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Andres Melendez 2021 · A	20	43	37→50	46→40	46	203/263/280	77	259	4	5	22%	7%	49	-1.8	211/286/332	121	328	11	5	36%	9%	72	-0.2	192/279/332	140	298	14	2	37%	10%	69	-0.2