Morris Austin

P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	ACarolina Mudc…	36	1	70	4.26	3.19	25.5%	14.8%	—	K 18.9% · BB 17.5% · FIP 4.14
2025	25	MIX2 levels	43	0	57	3.97	3.15	22.7%	12.0%	—	K 17.2% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.02
2026	26	MIX3 levels	42	0	60	4.20	3.73	26.3%	14.1%	—	K 20.7% · BB 16.0% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	39	0	41	5.20	5.20	20.0%	14.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCWS	14	0	15	5.16	5.19	20.2%	14.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Armando Rivero (age 27) · Derek Eitel (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%20.0%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.1%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	15	5	4	0	0%	0.9	33.3%	26.7%	6.7%	0.0%	7.36	3.66	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	15	5	4	0	0%	0.9	33.3%	26.7%	6.7%	0.0%	7.36	3.65	—
2024	24	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	36	1	70	310	79	46	2	3%	1.9	18.9%	17.5%	1.3%	0.8%	4.26	4.14	—
2024	24	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	36	1	70	310	79	46	2	3%	1.9	18.9%	17.5%	1.3%	0.8%	4.26	4.14	—
2024	24	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	36	1	70	310	79	46	2	3%	1.9	25.5%	14.8%	10.6%	0.6%	4.26	3.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	242	55	29	2	0%	1.3	17.2%	13.9%	3.3%	1.1%	3.97	4.02	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	242	55	29	2	0%	1.3	17.2%	13.9%	3.3%	1.1%	3.97	4.02	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	242	55	29	2	0%	1.3	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	0.8%	3.97	3.15	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	60	262	69	37	5	0%	1.4	20.7%	16.0%	4.7%	2.4%	4.20	4.70	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	60	262	69	37	5	0%	1.4	20.7%	16.0%	4.7%	2.4%	4.20	4.70	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	60	262	69	37	5	0%	1.4	26.3%	14.1%	12.2%	1.9%	4.20	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	39	0	41	173	35	26	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.9%	5.1%	2.8%	5.20	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	38	0	40	168	34	24	5	0%	1.0	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	2.9%	5.16	5.19	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	14	0	15	63	13	9	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	2.9%	5.16	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	13	9	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	2.9%	5.16	4.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	120	27	0%	1.1	20.2%	14.5%	5.7%	2.9%	5.16	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		125	1	190	829	159	134	11	1%	1.5	19.2%	16.1%	3.1%	1.4%	4.22	4.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	1	200	873	168	141	12	1%	1.5	19.2%	16.1%	3.1%	1.4%	4.22	4.27	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Morris Austin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	20.0%	14.9%	2.8%	—	5.19	20.2%	5.7%	40	-0.01	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	90
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	88
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	88
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	84
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	20.1%	14.7%	1.09	5.18
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*