Yoshinobu Yamamoto

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 28 RHP 5'10" / 176 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 4.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2038

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	20	20	94	3.16	2.63	28.6%	6.2%	2.7	K 28.5% · BB 6.0% · FIP 2.45
2025	26	MLBLAD	30	30	174	2.49	2.85	29.4%	8.6%	4.5
2026	27	MLBLAD	28	28	185	2.53	3.20	25.7%	5.8%	3.9
2027PROJ	28	MLBLAD	30	30	180	3.24	3.44	27.2%	6.7%	3.2
2028PROJ	29	MLBLAD	28	28	171	3.52	3.66	26.6%	6.9%	2.7
2029PROJ	30	MLBLAD	27	27	161	3.74	3.88	25.9%	7.2%	2.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 11.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 8.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2037Service2.000First FA2038

2027Ext$27M2028Ext$27M2029Ext$27M2030Ext$27M2031Ext$27M2032Ext$27M2033Ext$27M2034Ext$27M+3

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo72

K%69

Whiff%67

CompsJimmy Nelson (age 28) · Max Scherzer (age 28) · Chris Archer (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9082vR 74

ERA3.24

FIP3.44

K%27.2%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%20.5%

Proj IP180

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 180 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$102M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p6925.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

FB+1.1 (39%)

SL+0.9 (6%)

SI (13%)

CU (13%)

CT (15%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$27M	+3.2	$30M	+$3M
2028	Ext	$27M	+2.7	$21M	-$3M
2029	Ext	$27M	+2.1	$14M	-$8M
2030	Ext	$27M	+1.5	$10M	-$10M
2031	Ext	$27M	+1.0	$6M	-$12M
2032	Ext	$27M	+0.5	$1M	-$15M
2033	Ext	$27M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$190M		$82M	-$59M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$59M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.5%	6.0%	22.6%	1.8%	3.16	2.45	+2.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.5%	6.0%	22.6%	1.8%	3.16	2.45	+2.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	94	385	110	24	8	100%	4.7	28.6%	6.2%	22.3%	2.1%	3.16	2.63	+2.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.0%	2.49	2.79	+4.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.0%	2.49	2.79	+4.7
2025	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	30	30	174	684	201	59	14	100%	5.8	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	2.0%	2.49	2.85	+4.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	185	708	182	41	20	100%	6.6	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.7%	2.53	3.15	+4.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	185	708	182	41	20	100%	6.6	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.7%	2.53	3.15	+4.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	28	185	708	182	41	20	100%	6.6	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.8%	2.53	3.20	+3.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	76	449	1760	488	122	41	100%	5.9	27.7%	6.9%	20.8%	2.3%	2.61	2.93	+11.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	LAD	30	30	180	760	207	51	19	100%	6.0	27.2%	6.7%	20.5%	2.6%	3.24	3.44	+3.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	171	724	193	50	20	100%	5.9	26.6%	6.9%	19.7%	2.7%	3.46	3.60	+2.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAD	27	27	161	680	176	49	20	100%	6.0	25.9%	7.2%	18.7%	2.9%	3.67	3.81	+2.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	150	634	160	48	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.6%	17.6%	3.1%	3.89	4.04	+1.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	139	586	143	47	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	3.4%	4.13	4.29	+1.0
2032	33	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	127	538	127	45	20	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	3.7%	4.40	4.57	+0.5
2033	34	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	116	489	111	44	19	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	4.0%	4.69	4.88	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	28	28	171	722	192	50	20	100%	6.1	26.6%	6.9%	19.7%	2.8%	3.52	3.66	+2.7
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	161	680	176	49	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	7.2%	18.7%	3.0%	3.74	3.88	+2.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	LAD	25	25	150	633	160	48	21	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.6%	17.6%	3.3%	3.96	4.11	+1.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	LAD	23	23	139	587	143	47	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	3.5%	4.21	4.37	+1.0
2032	33	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	127	536	126	45	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.4%	15.1%	3.8%	4.49	4.66	+0.5
2033	34	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	116	490	111	44	20	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	4.1%	4.78	4.97	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	220	1314	5412	1397	406	164	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.5%	18.3%	3.0%	3.56	3.54	+21.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	824	213	62	25	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.5%	18.3%	3.0%	3.56	3.54	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		78	78	453	1777	493	123	40	100%	5.8	27.7%	6.9%	20.8%	2.2%	2.64	2.86	+18.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	34	200	785	218	54	18	100%	5.8	27.7%	6.9%	20.8%	2.2%	2.64	2.86	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.44	27.2%	6.7%	2.6%	—	3.81	26.0%	18.7%	483	+0.37	—	—	—
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	720	75
Max Scherzer R 2012 · 3.23 FIP	28	SP	3.23	29.4%	7.4%	3.0%	.328	2.71	29.1%	23.4%	663	-0.52	2.13	3,078	70
Chris Archer R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	29.2%	7.0%	3.3%	.322	4.20	26.2%	17.7%	268	+0.89	2.85	1,371	70
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	69
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	68
Tyson Ross R 2015 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	25.8%	9.8%	1.1%	.313	4.61	17.6%	6.7%	217	+1.85	2.76	918	63
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	61
Jordan Zimmermann R 2014 · 2.53 FIP	28	SP	2.53	22.8%	3.6%	1.6%	.299	4.24	16.6%	11.4%	487	+1.71	2.53	1,623	61
Yu Darvish R 2014 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	30.1%	7.9%	2.1%	.331	3.32	28.6%	21.1%	307	+0.62	1.97	1,798	61
Chan Ho Park R 2001 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP	3.67	22.2%	9.2%	2.3%	.246	5.18	16.2%	5.5%	271	+1.51	3.20	1,981	60
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	60
Matt Clement R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	20.1%	9.0%	2.6%	.253	4.00	19.9%	10.6%	437	+0.03	2.56	1,413	59
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	59
Joe Ryan R 2024 · 3.26 FIP	28	SP	3.26	27.3%	4.3%	3.5%	.261	3.46	27.1%	21.8%	316	+0.20	2.41	976	59
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	59
Brandon Webb R 2007 · 2.95 FIP	28	SP	2.95	19.9%	6.8%	1.2%	.280	3.02	19.4%	13.0%	227	+0.07	2.95	1,316	59
Joe Blanton R 2009 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	19.5%	6.6%	3.6%	.285	3.83	19.1%	14.9%	408	-0.43	3.01	1,799	58
Aaron Harang R 2006 · 3.42 FIP	28	SP	3.42	21.8%	4.8%	2.8%	.305	3.95	21.0%	15.6%	578	+0.53	3.42	2,322	57
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	2.94	1,185	57
James Shields R 2010 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	20.8%	5.5%	3.9%	.337	3.45	22.5%	15.9%	706	-0.72	3.35	2,630	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	149	26.0%	7.4%	1.12	3.48
Cy Blanton ('34-'42, 16 WAR*)	6.1	152	25.8%*	7.1%*	1.04*	3.88*
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Virgil Trucks ('41-'58, 45 WAR*)	13.4	179	25.8%*	8.1%*	1.12*	3.65*
Shane McClanahan ('21-'23, 9 WAR*)	2.0	135	24.1%*	7.2%*	1.05*	3.33*
Marius Russo ('39-'46, 11 WAR*)	3.4	136	22.9%*	8.0%*	1.06*	3.42*
Mark Prior ('06)	3.3	131	27.3%	8.0%	1.05	3.51