Raider Tello — OGILVIE

Raider TelloSS Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION313 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .333 / .250

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP353

ISO91

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	23	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	58	51	13	2	0	0	6	13	1	0	1	255	345	294	639	39	342	22	10	301	90	-1	-0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	24	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	398	354	98	19	0	8	32	93	7	1	0	277	348	398	746	121	353	23	8	334	112	+6	+0	—	—	+9	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	58	52	11	2	0	0	5	19	1	0	1	212	293	250	543	38	309	33	9	236	46	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	398	362	85	18	0	6	25	124	7	1	0	235	297	334	631	99	329	31	6	276	73	-13	+0	—	—	+9	-0.4
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	58	52	11	2	0	0	5	19	1	0	1	212	293	250	543	38	333	33	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	58	51	13	2	0	0	6	13	1	0	1	255	345	294	639	39	342	22	10	301	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	398	362	85	18	0	6	25	124	7	1	0	235	297	334	631	99	338	31	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	398	354	98	19	0	8	32	93	7	1	0	277	348	398	746	121	353	23	8	334	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	58	52	11	2	0	0	5	19	1	0	1	212	293	250	543	38	309	33	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	398	363	85	18	0	6	25	124	7	1	0	234	297	333	630	99	329	31	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	58	52	11	2	0	0	5	19	1	0	1	212	293	250	543	38	309	33	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	398	363	85	18	0	6	25	124	7	1	0	234	297	333	630	99	329	31	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	PHI	—	313	289	76	11	0	3	19	107	1	1	1	263	311	332	643	69	401	34	6	283	78	-8	-0	+0	+3	+7	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ RAW	PHI	—	150	134	38	6	0	1	14	37	0	1	0	284	349	351	700	67	381	25	9	317	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AA RAW	PHI	—	163	145	45	7	0	3	14	47	1	0	1	310	375	421	796	110	433	29	9	352	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	AA MLE	PHI	2%	9	8	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	250	333	250	583		350	33	11	277	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	25	AA MLE	PHI	—	322	297	78	11	0	3	20	110	1	1	1	263	311	330	641	67	401	34	6	283	78	-8	-0	+0	+3	+7	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	31%	356	327	78	14	0	5	23	112	3	1	1	239	295	327	622	89	344	31	6	285	79	-9	-0	+0	+4	+8	0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	42%	382	349	84	15	1	6	26	118	4	2	1	241	301	341	642	100	339	31	7	288	81	-9	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	396	361	87	15	1	7	28	121	4	2	1	241	303	346	649	105	337	31	7	289	81	-9	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	49%	398	363	86	15	1	7	28	122	4	1	1	237	299	342	640	105	333	31	7	287	80	-9	-0	-1	+4	+9	0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	54%	397	362	84	15	0	6	28	122	4	1	1	232	294	323	618	91	330	31	7	283	78	-11	-0	-2	+4	+9	0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	31%	110	101	24	4	0	2	7	35	1	0	0	238	294	337	630	99	347	32	6	282	79	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	42%	161	148	35	6	0	3	11	50	1	1	0	236	294	338	632	101	342	31	7	285	81	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	190	173	41	7	0	3	13	58	2	1	0	237	298	329	627	92	340	31	7	286	81	-4	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	49%	197	179	44	8	0	4	14	60	2	1	0	246	308	358	665	112	336	30	7	284	80	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	54%	216	197	46	8	0	4	15	67	2	1	0	234	294	335	629	102	333	31	7	280	78	-6	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	874	798	190	33	0	16	60	270	8	4	0	238	298	340	638	102	337	31	7	283	78	-21	+1	-2	+9	+19	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	142	25	0	12	45	201	6	3	0	239	300	342	642	103	339	31	7	283	78	-16	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2394	2184	517	94	3	37	164	741	27	8	6	237	298	333	631	97	339	31	7	283	78	-47	-1	-4	+21	+42	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	141	26	1	10	45	201	7	2	2	238	299	336	635	98	340	31	7	283	78	-16	-0	-1	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Darwin Barneylast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,729 PA	4.1	2,729	29	29	246	294	339	+10	+46	6.5	6.5
/162	664	7	7	+2.5	+11.2	1.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.3	879	14	3	238	295	338	+9	+6	1.2	1.2
/162	664	11	2	+7.1	+4.5	0.9	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Raider Tello (OGILVIE)	25	45	35	40	30	236/290/317	81	350	4	1	33%	6%	74	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Martin Cervenka 2018 · A	25	46→48	41→45	44→40	40	221/265/315	95	306	8	3	30%	6%	63	-1.4	216/264/328	112	292	12	4	29%	6%	66	-1.1	188/241/300	112	246	14	2	29%	6%	50	-1.0
✕D' Vontrey Richardson 2013 · A	25	47→39	39→40	44→50	39	223/271/317	93	319	5	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	241/282/329	88	315	5	17	24%	5%	72	-0.7	248/287/332	84	319	5	21	23%	4%	72	-0.3
✕Matt Koch 2014 · A	25	44	42→40	41→30	41	211/273/316	105	304	9	3	32%	7%	67	-1.1	210/267/293	83	296	7	6	29%	7%	59	-1.6	189/248/245	55	266	4	4	29%	6%	38	-1.3
✕Bryan Pounds 2011 · AA	25	47→50	40	41→40	44	221/292/314	92	316	8	3	30%	8%	74	-0.5	211/272/314	103	291	9	6	29%	7%	66	-1.1	200/261/303	103	271	9	5	28%	6%	58	-1.0
✕Chris Paul 2018 · A	25	46→37	39→40	42→40	37	221/267/311	90	306	6	5	29%	4%	63	-1.4	220/262/320	100	294	8	5	27%	4%	63	-1.3	210/245/310	100	275	8	2	26%	4%	52	-1.3
✕Eli Wilson 2023 · A	25	44	41→45	44→40	40	209/280/308	99	317	9	4	35%	7%	68	-1.0	203/262/320	117	268	13	8	28%	6%	64	-1.3	190/257/315	126	217	15	6	20%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Donny Sands 2021 · A	25	41	38→45	45→40	40	197/249/279	82	279	5	5	30%	6%	49	-2.4	228/286/347	119	277	13	4	22%	7%	79	-0.2	224/286/336	112	273	12	2	22%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Ramon Santana 2011 · AA	25	45→52	41→45	44→45	38	209/272/314	105	321	8	7	35%	6%	67	-1.1	207/263/315	108	327	8	6	37%	6%	63	-1.3	189/240/308	119	304	8	0	38%	4%	49	-0.7
✕Jesse Hodges 2018 · A	24	43→44	42→40	41→40	39	211/264/315	104	298	9	4	31%	6%	63	-1.3	193/241/285	92	285	7	4	33%	5%	48	-2.5	159/202/231	72	242	5	1	35%	4%	18	-1.8
✕Devlin Granberg 2021 · A	25	45	40→45	46→45	43	218/284/316	97	290	7	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	240/299/378	138	295	14	8	23%	5%	91	+0.7	245/306/391	146	298	14	8	22%	5%	93	+0.5
✕Chris Mariscal 2018 · AA	25	49→50	39→40	46→45	42	230/290/319	90	325	7	6	30%	7%	74	-0.6	218/276/319	101	304	10	5	30%	6%	69	-0.9	206/265/302	96	287	11	4	31%	6%	58	-1.3
✕Joey Reiman 2006 · A	25	49	40	40→30	42	229/291/322	92	334	7	4	32%	7%	75	-0.5	238/309/325	87	346	5	5	30%	7%	83	+0.1	261/344/332	71	386	2	0	30%	8%	95	+0.4
✕Greg Rohan 2011 · A	25	48→55	39→45	41→30	42	231/274/322	91	293	6	3	23%	5%	68	-1.0	241/289/365	124	293	12	3	21%	5%	84	+0.1	247/297/386	139	289	14	1	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Zach Remillard 2019 · A	25	39→49	42→40	43→55	33	197/235/297	99	287	10	6	35%	4%	48	-2.5	204/259/291	87	302	9	9	34%	6%	56	-1.9	208/278/289	82	282	8	21	27%	7%	61	-1.1
✕Jimmy Swift 2013 · AA	25	45→51	41→40	43→45	38	220/265/318	98	303	9	7	30%	5%	64	-1.3	222/254/313	91	304	8	6	29%	3%	58	-1.7	224/249/308	83	304	7	4	28%	2%	52	-1.1
✕Chadd Krist 2015 · A	25	40	41→40	44→45	42	196/258/292	96	269	8	6	29%	7%	56	-1.9	194/248/291	97	281	9	6	32%	6%	52	-2.2	151/202/238	87	213	10	0	34%	5%	19	-1.4
✕Lee Mitchell 2007 · AA	25	41→49	44→45	38→45	39	202/262/321	118	299	11	4	34%	6%	64	-1.3	214/291/342	128	313	12	4	33%	9%	80	-0.1	205/292/331	127	301	12	2	33%	10%	77	-0.3
✕Dan Schwartzbauer 2006 · A	24	48→50	40	41→45	40	229/275/320	91	303	7	5	26%	5%	68	-1.0	226/272/301	75	305	4	8	26%	5%	62	-1.4	226/272/287	60	305	2	8	25%	5%	57	-0.9
✕Leivi Ventura 2008 · A	25	42→45	40	39→40	41	208/261/301	93	273	8	3	26%	6%	59	-1.7	213/260/328	115	287	12	5	29%	5%	65	-1.2	189/225/330	140	251	19	0	33%	4%	51	-0.7
✕Jeff Kemp 2016 · A	26	44→45	38→40	43→45	38	212/256/296	84	293	5	5	29%	4%	55	-1.9	205/258/295	90	302	8	8	33%	6%	56	-1.9	147/211/218	71	230	10	10	39%	6%	20	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps