Santiago Contreras

C ACL Padres
Age 21 L/R 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1462ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL Padres Go…126.179/.444/.2620742—.106/.323/.149
202519ROKDSL Padres Go…124.299/.443/.42311648—.184/.311/.262
202620ROKSD134.194/.388/.2650534—.131/.279/.168
2027PROJMLE21MLBSD244.192/.281/.26925600.0
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBSD41.194/.283/.28101650.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBSD96.199/.287/.29412690.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Speed77
BB%68
K%48
Chase%41
wRC+34
Z-Con%28
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsJason Denham (age 21) · Luis Valenzuela (age 21) · Kier Meredith (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj PA
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .279 / .267
PA69
HR1
K%29
BB%9
ISO77
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.20.30.30.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 34
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT39
scouting grade only
POWER34
scouting grade only
EYE62
scouting grade only
SPEED62
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-1$0.4M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 125102 21622 13368 101 206341363704 157292 2910 320 21 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 12684 15320 32408 73 179444262705 83341 3225 352 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 12497 29521 18297 162 299443423865 124418 2315 391 48 — — — — — —
202620 ROKACL Padres — 13498 19320 24297 52 194388265653 71268 2218 311 34 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 125106 12311 9448 101 113236189424 75176 357 199 21 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 12694 10210 22518 73 106323149472 43205 4017 230 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 124103 19311 12367 162 184311262574 78247 2910 239 48 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Padres — 134107 14210 15427 52 131279168447 37202 3111 218 34 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 125106 12311 9448 101 113236189424 75177 357 199 21 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Padres Brown — 125102 21622 13368 101 206341363704 157292 2910 320 21 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 12694 10210 22518 73 106323149472 43233 4017 230 42 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Padres Gold — 12684 15320 32408 73 179444262705 83341 3225 352 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 124103 19311 12367 162 184311262574 78273 2910 239 48 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWDSL Padres Gold — 12497 29521 18297 162 299443423865 124418 2315 391 48 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Padres — 134107 14210 15427 52 131279168447 37209 3111 218 34 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAWACL Padres — 13498 19320 24297 52 194388265653 71268 2218 311 34 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 125107 12311 9448 101 112236187423 75176 357 199 21 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 12695 10210 22518 73 105323147470 42205 4017 230 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 124104 19311 12367 162 183311260571 77247 2910 239 48 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Padres — 134111 14210 15427 52 126279162441 36202 3111 218 34 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 12695 10210 22518 73 105323147470 42205 4017 230 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 124104 19311 12367 162 183311260571 77247 2910 239 48 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Padres — 134111 14210 15427 52 126279162441 36202 3111 218 34 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLESD 0% 244215 41722 22725 51 192281269551 77275 309 256 60 -12 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLESD 34% 119105 21411 11342 31 197286285572 88277 299 264 65 -5 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.0
202923 MLB MLESD 48% 199175 36623 18574 51 202290299588 97279 299 271 69 -7 +1 +0 +4 +4 0.1
203024 MLB MLESD 53% 283250 51924 26805 72 206293309602 103280 289 276 73 -9 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.3
203125 MLB MLESD 55% 344304 641136 31966 92 208295317612 109281 289 280 75 -10 +1 +0 +6 +7 0.5
203226 MLB MLESD 56% 377333 701236 341047 92 210296323619 112281 289 282 77 -10 +1 +0 +7 +8 0.6
203327 MLB MLESD 55% 393347 731237 361097 102 209295320615 111281 289 281 76 -11 +1 +0 +7 +9 0.6
203428 MLB MLESD 55% 398352 731336 361117 92 207293315609 108280 289 278 74 -12 +1 -1 +7 +9 0.4
203529 MLB MLESD 53% 392348 711236 351106 82 205290309599 104278 289 274 72 -13 +1 -1 +7 +8 0.2
203630 MLB MLESD 53% 383340 701236 341096 82 202287301588 99276 289 270 69 -14 +1 -2 +7 +8 -0.0
202822 MLB CTXSD 34% 4136 6100 4121 10 194283281564 87272 2910 261 65 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202923 MLB CTXSD 48% 9685 17311 9272 21 199287294581 95274 289 268 69 -3 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.0
203024 MLB CTXSD 53% 149131 26412 14423 41 202290305595 102275 289 273 73 -5 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.2
203125 MLB CTXSD 55% 188166 34613 17523 51 205292312605 107276 289 277 75 -6 +1 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203226 MLB CTXSD 56% 210185 39624 19584 51 207294318612 111276 289 279 77 -6 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203327 MLB CTXSD 55% 216190 40624 20604 51 206293316608 110276 289 278 76 -6 +1 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203428 MLB CTXSD 55% 218192 40624 20614 51 204290311601 107275 289 275 74 -7 +1 -0 +4 +5 0.2
203529 MLB CTXSD 53% 209185 36613 19593 41 202288304592 103273 289 271 72 -7 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.1
203630 MLB CTXSD 53% 201178 35613 18573 41 199284296580 98271 289 267 69 -8 +0 -1 +4 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 15281348 273441124 14042827 358 203290305595 102276 289 274 67 -49 +4 -2 +27 +33 1.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650573 11719510 6018211 153 204292307599 103279 289 274 67 -21 +2 -1 +12 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 34663026 5971032848 325100381 10824 197292297590 100275 299 268 67 -96 +8 -4 +53 +64 2.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650567 1111959 6118815 205 196290295585 99273 299 268 67 -21 +2 -1 +12 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Padres · 134 PAwOBA .309 → .218 (−92)K% 21.6% → 31.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.64%÷1.000×1.440——31.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.91%÷1.000×0.620—×0.98510.94%
HBP% /PA5.22%—×0.720—×0.9853.70%
Singles /BIP20.29%÷1.000×0.820×0.962×0.98515.77%
Doubles /BIP4.35%÷1.000×0.720×0.962×0.9852.97%
Triples /BIP2.90%÷1.000×0.720×0.962×0.9851.98%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .309 → .218; ISO .071 → .051; BABIP .268 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 124 PAwOBA .382 → .239 (−142)K% 23.4% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.39%÷0.970×1.220——29.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.52%÷1.049×0.700—×0.9859.54%
HBP% /PA5.65%—×0.700—×0.9853.89%
Singles /BIP30.88%÷1.064×0.680×0.985×0.98519.15%
Doubles /BIP7.35%÷1.159×0.600×0.985×0.9853.69%
Triples /BIP2.94%÷1.049×0.600×0.985×0.9851.63%
Home runs /BIP1.47%÷0.956×0.470—×0.9850.71%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 113, 2B 132, 3B 110, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .382 → .239; ISO .124 → .066; BABIP .418 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 126 PAwOBA .345 → .230 (−115)K% 31.7% → 40.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.75%÷0.952×1.220——40.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.40%÷1.022×0.700—×0.99517.31%
HBP% /PA6.35%—×0.700—×0.9954.42%
Singles /BIP22.73%÷1.015×0.680×0.955×0.99514.47%
Doubles /BIP6.82%÷1.072×0.600×0.955×0.9953.62%
Triples /BIP4.55%÷1.096×0.600×0.955×0.9952.36%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.909×0.470—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 119, K 90, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .345 → .230; ISO .083 → .047; BABIP .341 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Padres Brown · 125 PAwOBA .315 → .199 (−116)K% 28.8% → 35.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.80%÷1.001×1.220——35.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.40%÷0.992×0.700—×1.0087.40%
HBP% /PA6.40%—×0.700—×1.0084.51%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷0.968×0.680×0.950×1.00811.20%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.101×0.600×0.950×1.0084.74%
Triples /BIP3.03%÷1.029×0.600×0.950×1.0081.69%
Home runs /BIP3.03%÷0.929×0.470—×1.0081.54%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 106, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .199; ISO .157 → .083; BABIP .292 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).