Santiago ContrerasC ACL Padres
Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
2026 ROS PROJECTION126 act + 84 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†49
AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .274 / .270
PA84
HR1
K%30
BB%10
BABIP250
ISO95
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -16.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-16BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +5.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+6REPTotal WAR: -0.60-0.6WAR
0.00.81.60.30.60.91.01.11.11.0+$45M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 34
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER34
scouting grade only
EYE65
scouting grade only
SPEED61
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.1$6M+$5M
2033Pre-Arb$1.0M+1.1$5M+$5M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+1.0$4M+$4M
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $15M +$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 125107 14312 8528 101 131244234478 103222 426 209 18 — — — — — —
202317 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 125102 21622 13368 101 206341363704 157292 2910 320 103 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 12697 9210 19648 73 93290134424 41273 5115 210 19 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 12684 15320 32408 73 179444262705 83341 3225 352 127 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 124105 19311 10447 162 181295257552 76300 358 241 43 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 12497 29521 18297 162 299443423865 124418 2315 391 157 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD20 ROKSD — 126101 14210 13407 52 139281178459 40222 3210 214 22 -11 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.5
YTD20 ROKSD — 12693 18310 21287 52 194380247627 54269 2217 301 89 -2 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.4
ROS20 ROKSD 0% 8474 13211 8252 21 176274270544 95253 3010 249 49 -5 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.1
ROS20 MLBSD 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 251 —— 225 31 — — +0 +0 — —
FULL20 ROKSD — 126102 14210 13407 52 137281176457 39219 3210 214 22 -11 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.5
TOT20 ROKSD — 210175 27421 21659 73 154278217495 63234 3110 228 33 -16 +0 +0 +4 +6 -0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721 MLBSD 34% 239209 40723 22686 51 191287287574 96259 289 262 58 -11 +1 +0 +4 +7 0.0
202822 MLBSD 48% 356312 601125 33998 82 192286288575 96263 289 271 66 -14 +1 +0 +6 +10 0.3
202923 MLBSD 54% 431378 761437 4011810 103 201294310604 108266 279 277 70 -14 +1 +0 +8 +12 0.6
203024 MLBSD 55% 482423 851539 4513011 123 201294314609 113267 279 281 73 -15 +1 +0 +9 +14 0.9
203125 MLBSD 56% 510445 9116310 4813812 133 204299321620 117267 279 282 74 -15 +1 +0 +9 +14 1.0
203226 MLBSD 56% 520454 9317310 4914012 133 205299322621 117267 279 283 75 -15 +1 +0 +9 +15 1.1
203327 MLBSD 55% 520453 9217310 5014112 133 203299320619 117267 2710 283 75 -15 +1 +0 +9 +15 1.1
203428 MLBSD 59% 520453 9116310 5014112 133 201297316613 115266 2710 282 74 -15 +1 -1 +9 +15 1.0
202721 MLBSD 34% 8272 13211 8232 20 181280278558 97256 2810 241 43 -5 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.1
202822 MLBSD 48% 172150 29513 16484 41 193288300588 107260 289 251 50 -10 +0 +0 +3 +5 -0.1
202923 MLBSD 54% 234205 40714 22645 62 195289298586 102263 279 257 55 -12 +0 +0 +4 +7 -0.1
203024 MLBSD 55% 267234 47825 25726 72 201294316611 115264 279 261 58 -13 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.0
203125 MLBSD 56% 286250 50925 27777 72 200296312608 112264 279 262 59 -13 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.0
203226 MLBSD 56% 292255 51925 28797 72 200297310606 110264 2710 263 59 -13 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.1
203327 MLBSD 55% 288251 50925 28787 72 199297311608 112264 2710 263 59 -13 +1 +0 +5 +8 0.1
203428 MLBSD 59% 307267 53926 30837 72 199296315611 116263 2710 262 59 -14 +1 -0 +5 +9 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 19281685 333581334 18452445 4713 198294308602 110263 2710 260 57 -94 +4 -0 +34 +55 -0.1
/ 162G— — 650568 11220411 6217715 164 197293305598 107264 2710 260 57 -32 +2 -0 +12 +18 -0.0
Career— — 40373510 6831232668 3821160108 12228 195293303596 108267 299 273 67 -150 +13 -1 +72 +114 4.9
/ 162G— — 650565 11020411 6218717 205 195293303596 108268 2910 273 67 -24 +2 -0 +12 +18 0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 125102 21622 13368 101 206341363704 157292 2910 320 103 +0 +2 — — +4 0.6
202418 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 12684 15320 32408 73 179444262705 83341 3225 352 127 +4 +0 — — +4 0.8
202519 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 12497 29521 18297 162 299443423865 124418 2315 391 157 +8 +2 — — +4 1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA
72,8326234238305374+28+3311.611.6
/162664158+6.7+7.72.7pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA
83,2679864221297378+16+3611.011.4
/1626642013+3.2+7.32.2pk7: 12
#3Brendan Ryanlast yr '15
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA
92,8721967234295315+30+8510.611.0
/162664415+6.9+19.72.5pk7: 11
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA
72,830452244301351+21+317.27.2
/162664110+4.9+7.21.7pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#6Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons
52,0593650201292312+37+203.23.2
/1626641216+11.9+6.41.0pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Santiago Contreras (OGILVIE) 20 20→25 29→34 56→61 65 154/278/217 63234 17 31% 10% 33 -0.6 ————————— —————————
✕Jefry Puente
2012 · A 		20 35 37→45 55→50 47 170/258/247 77249 311 30% 9% 40 -2.4 192/268/269 77260 314 25% 8% 49 -1.8 163/244/2195620902720%7%23-0.9
✕Luis Valenzuela
2014 · A 		20 41 37→45 53→45 46 193/250/268 75240 49 21% 7% 40 -2.4 227/256/313 86294 58 24% 4% 53 -1.5 257/280/3581003165720%2%71-0.1
✕Jaden Rudd
2023 · A 		20 40→36 40→30 50 49 191/283/285 94262 712 28% 10% 60 -1.0 181/291/247 66292 314 35% 10% 56 -1.3 157/284/2075026621636%11%41-1.2
✕Wilbis Santiago
2016 · A 		20 45 35→40 55→30 46 209/266/267 58257 210 19% 6% 46 -2.0 224/267/299 75261 38 15% 4% 55 -1.4 249/275/330812803312%2%64-0.2
✕Daniel Vellojin
2019 · A 		19 39 39→45 47→45 48 189/268/273 83260 66 28% 9% 50 -1.7 214/303/312 98272 78 22% 10% 76 +0.0 196/299/31111625812627%12%71-0.1
✕Rodolfo Penalo
2013 · A 		20 41 36→40 52→65 48 193/259/264 71240 318 20% 7% 43 -2.2 214/291/283 69273 226 20% 9% 62 -0.9 212/299/2736127313420%10%59-0.4
✕Frankeny Fernandez
2017 · A 		20 36 38→40 53→60 42 174/248/255 81275 519 36% 8% 37 -2.6 193/258/268 75281 510 31% 7% 44 -2.1 172/238/215432393627%7%20-1.1
✕Roberto Caro
2014 · A 		20 46→38 35→40 56→60 48 210/285/283 73287 116 25% 8% 59 -1.1 206/280/293 87292 318 28% 8% 59 -1.1 212/285/2927932822633%8%59-0.5
✕Glenn Santiago
2021 · A 		20 43 37→40 55→45 46 200/274/277 78262 313 23% 7% 54 -1.4 206/269/298 92281 79 27% 7% 56 -1.3 184/247/261772747833%7%35-1.1
✕Christian Cerda
2023 · A 		20 40→37 40 50→40 50 194/278/287 93254 69 25% 9% 58 -1.2 189/282/293 104252 114 27% 11% 62 -0.9 173/268/27510122312227%11%50-1.2
✕Junior Valera
2013 · A 		20 42 36→40 51→60 45 196/266/265 69275 210 28% 8% 46 -2.0 226/289/310 84293 318 22% 8% 67 -0.5 245/308/3389430732820%8%77+0.1
✕Pedro Toribio
2010 · A 		20 42 36→40 55→60 47 199/265/272 73259 317 23% 8% 47 -1.9 229/276/321 92283 423 20% 6% 64 -0.8 258/292/37011230943117%4%81+0.1
✕Hoy Park
2017 · A 		21 41→49 39→45 60→55 46 193/267/285 92274 517 29% 8% 53 -1.5 216/290/303 87291 617 26% 9% 67 -0.5 227/314/3259830081725%10%79+0.2
✕Carlos Rodriguez
2023 · A 		20 38 39→45 47→45 45 181/267/268 87282 76 36% 9% 49 -1.8 190/265/267 77299 56 35% 9% 47 -1.9 170/253/254842537233%9%37-1.0
✕Juan Centeno
2010 · A 		20 42 36→45 49→40 46 200/261/264 65253 36 22% 7% 44 -2.1 229/274/289 60295 36 22% 6% 55 -1.4 238/286/35211428111219%5%73-0.1
✕Michael De La Cruz
2016 · A 		20 41 36→40 45→50 44 192/261/262 70277 49 30% 8% 43 -2.2 192/257/257 65308 310 35% 8% 40 -2.4 156/232/1883126901438%9%10-1.5
✕Diomedes Del Rio
2018 · A 		20 40 35→55 51→50 42 189/256/253 63271 29 29% 6% 40 -2.4 207/272/316 109294 59 29% 8% 62 -0.9 200/270/36216128161129%8%71-0.1
✕Jason Denham
2007 · A 		21 40→45 35→40 53→55 44 190/254/251 61280 310 31% 8% 37 -2.6 218/277/298 80290 818 26% 7% 59 -1.1 217/279/2927428482125%7%57-0.8
✕Terry Serrano
2007 · A 		20 39 35→30 49→55 46 184/261/240 56270 216 30% 9% 38 -2.6 196/268/257 61275 315 27% 8% 45 -2.1 193/272/2515827421728%9%44-0.9
✕Brainer Bonaci
2022 · A 		20 41→42 39→45 53→50 42 196/255/285 89270 513 28% 7% 46 -2.0 211/283/320 109300 1013 30% 9% 69 -0.4 209/285/321112292121430%9%67-0.4