Daniel Lockhart
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 390 | .217/.282/.339 | 5 | 10 | 34 | — | .173/.225/.265 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAMississippi B… | 408 | .230/.318/.346 | 6 | 9 | 49 | — | .193/.249/.283 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAMississippi B… | 280 | .236/.303/.340 | 5 | 3 | 41 | — | .188/.241/.273 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 265 | 219 | 483 | 280 | 21 | 6 | 227 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 190 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 27 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 221 | 302 | 305 | 607 | 84 | 253 | 13 | 8 | 279 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 368 | 326 | 92 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 47 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 282 | 350 | 359 | 709 | 77 | 324 | 13 | 9 | 316 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 23 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 318 | 250 | 568 | 238 | 0 | 9 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 442 | 408 | 91 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 73 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 223 | 273 | 301 | 574 | 78 | 265 | 17 | 5 | 258 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 172 | 155 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 265 | 277 | 542 | 65 | 262 | 20 | 6 | 241 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 132 | 119 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 244 | 297 | 370 | 667 | 126 | 289 | 18 | 6 | 289 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 91 | 78 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 303 | 321 | 624 | 115 | 224 | 12 | 12 | 281 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 299 | 273 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 40 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 220 | 276 | 344 | 620 | 125 | 242 | 13 | 6 | 274 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 408 | 356 | 82 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 100 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 230 | 318 | 346 | 664 | 115 | 300 | 25 | 11 | 299 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 280 | 250 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 236 | 303 | 340 | 643 | 104 | 280 | 19 | 7 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 34 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 152 | 176 | 152 | 328 | 231 | 29 | 3 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 197 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 173 | 231 | 239 | 470 | 66 | 205 | 18 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 368 | 339 | 83 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 67 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 245 | 289 | 310 | 599 | 65 | 291 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 442 | 417 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 101 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 194 | 229 | 257 | 486 | 62 | 242 | 23 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 172 | 159 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 223 | 252 | 474 | 63 | 235 | 25 | 3 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 132 | 122 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 189 | 227 | 287 | 513 | 98 | 239 | 27 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 91 | 81 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 173 | 247 | 272 | 519 | 99 | 196 | 15 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 299 | 278 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 173 | 218 | 263 | 480 | 90 | 203 | 19 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 408 | 374 | 72 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 124 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 193 | 249 | 283 | 532 | 91 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 280 | 256 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 67 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 188 | 241 | 273 | 514 | 86 | 231 | 24 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 34 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 152 | 176 | 152 | 328 | 217 | 29 | 3 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 265 | 219 | 483 | 280 | 21 | 6 | 227 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 197 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 173 | 231 | 239 | 470 | 66 | 210 | 18 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 190 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 27 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 221 | 302 | 305 | 607 | 84 | 253 | 13 | 8 | 279 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 360 | 88 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 71 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 244 | 288 | 308 | 596 | 64 | 298 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 391 | 346 | 97 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 35 | 47 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 280 | 348 | 353 | 701 | 72 | 318 | 12 | 9 | 313 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 442 | 417 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 101 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 194 | 229 | 257 | 486 | 62 | 249 | 23 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 442 | 408 | 91 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 73 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 223 | 273 | 301 | 574 | 78 | 265 | 17 | 5 | 258 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 281 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 78 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 189 | 224 | 256 | 481 | 68 | 250 | 26 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 304 | 274 | 62 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 59 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 226 | 279 | 318 | 596 | 91 | 274 | 19 | 6 | 262 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 360 | 64 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 70 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 178 | 227 | 272 | 499 | 94 | 208 | 18 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 351 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 51 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 217 | 282 | 339 | 621 | 123 | 238 | 13 | 7 | 276 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 408 | 374 | 72 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 124 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 193 | 249 | 283 | 532 | 91 | 270 | 30 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 408 | 356 | 82 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 100 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 230 | 318 | 346 | 664 | 115 | 300 | 25 | 11 | 299 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 280 | 256 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 67 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 188 | 241 | 273 | 514 | 86 | 235 | 24 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 280 | 250 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 236 | 303 | 340 | 643 | 104 | 280 | 19 | 7 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 34 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 152 | 176 | 152 | 328 | 231 | 29 | 3 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 213 | 196 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 173 | 231 | 240 | 471 | 66 | 205 | 18 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 366 | 88 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 71 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 240 | 288 | 303 | 591 | 63 | 291 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 442 | 420 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 101 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 193 | 229 | 255 | 484 | 62 | 242 | 23 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 304 | 288 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 78 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 184 | 224 | 250 | 474 | 66 | 237 | 26 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 364 | 64 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 70 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 176 | 227 | 269 | 496 | 93 | 201 | 18 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 408 | 377 | 72 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 124 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 191 | 249 | 281 | 530 | 90 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 280 | 260 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 67 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 185 | 241 | 269 | 510 | 85 | 231 | 24 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2462 | 2278 | 445 | 86 | 17 | 17 | 117 | 560 | 22 | 65 | 20 | 195 | 242 | 270 | 512 | 75 | 248 | 23 | 5 | 226 | 39 | -178 | +5 | +0 | +9 | +53 | -11.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 117 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 148 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 195 | 241 | 266 | 508 | 72 | 248 | 23 | 5 | 226 | 39 | -47 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAMississippi Braves · 280 PAwOBA .282 → .229 (−53)K% 19.3% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.29% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.79% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.94% | ÷1.068 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 17.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.55% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.22% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .282 → .229; ISO .104 → .093; BABIP .280 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMississippi Braves · 408 PAwOBA .291 → .240 (−51)K% 24.5% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.51% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷1.037 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.27% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.86% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.110 | ×0.880 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 122, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .291 → .240; ISO .115 → .099; BABIP .300 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Visalia Rawhide · 299 PAwOBA .269 → .214 (−55)K% 13.4% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.38% | ÷0.952 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.02% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.31% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 14.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.01% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 1.47% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .269 → .214; ISO .125 → .099; BABIP .242 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAJackson Generals · 91 PAwOBA .278 → .233 (−45)K% 12.1% → 15.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.09% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.09% | ÷0.987 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.43% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 11.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.96% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .278 → .233; ISO .115 → .101; BABIP .224 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AATennessee Smokies · 172 PAwOBA .236 → .206 (−30)K% 20.3% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.35% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.23% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.012 | 18.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | ×1.012 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.957 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.64% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .236 → .206; ISO .065 → .059; BABIP .262 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 132 PAwOBA .288 → .218 (−70)K% 18.2% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.965 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷1.043 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 3.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 16.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.32% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.16% | ÷1.038 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.311 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 109, 2B 84, 3B 108, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .288 → .218; ISO .126 → .092; BABIP .289 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 442 PAwOBA .251 → .212 (−39)K% 16.5% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.52% | ÷1.025 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.52% | ÷0.960 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 2.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 19.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.138 | ×0.800 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.888 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 0.60% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 105, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .251 → .212; ISO .078 → .062; BABIP .265 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AKane County Cougars · 368 PAwOBA .309 → .264 (−45)K% 12.8% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.77% | ÷0.952 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.15% | ÷1.058 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.45% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | — | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷0.914 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | — | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.144 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | — | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 83, 3B 129, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .309 → .264; ISO .077 → .068; BABIP .324 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).