Pablo Arosemena — OGILVIE

Pablo ArosemenaC DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 20 R/R 5'8" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 66 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .273 / .283

PA66

HR1

K%30

BB%8

BABIP282

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$31M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Guardians Red	—	113	97	12	2	1	0	10	22	4	1	0	124	234	165	399	41	156	19	9	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Guardians Red	—	113	90	16	3	1	0	17	15	4	1	0	178	333	233	567	56	208	13	15	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	103	87	12	3	1	0	11	37	5	3	2	138	272	195	467	57	240	36	11	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	103	79	18	5	1	1	19	22	5	3	2	228	408	354	762	127	304	21	18	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	92	77	10	1	0	0	10	39	5	2	0	130	272	143	415	13	263	42	11	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	92	72	15	2	0	0	15	26	5	2	0	208	380	236	617	28	326	28	16	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	PIT	—	15	11	3	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	273	467	364	830	91	429	27	27	352	128	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
YTD	20	ROK	PIT	—	15	9	3	1	0	0	6	3	0	0	0	333	600	444	1.044	111	500	20	40	485	230	+2	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.3
ROS	20	ROK	PIT	0%	66	60	12	2	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	200	273	283	556	83	286	30	8	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
ROS	20	MLB	PIT	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		284	—	—	247	47	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	PIT	—	15	12	3	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	250	467	333	800	83	375	27	27	352	128	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
TOT	20	ROK	PIT	—	81	71	15	3	0	1	9	24	1	1	0	211	309	296	604	85	304	30	11	277	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	PIT	34%	169	150	31	6	1	2	14	49	3	2	1	207	287	300	587	93	288	29	8	273	67	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2028	22	MLB	PIT	48%	302	269	58	11	2	5	25	85	5	4	1	216	294	327	621	112	289	28	8	282	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.5
2029	23	MLB	PIT	54%	393	351	78	14	3	8	33	109	6	5	2	222	300	348	648	125	291	28	8	288	78	-10	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.9
2030	24	MLB	PIT	55%	456	408	90	16	3	10	38	125	7	6	2	221	298	348	646	127	292	27	8	292	81	-10	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.2
2031	25	MLB	PIT	56%	491	439	97	17	3	11	41	135	8	6	2	221	299	349	648	128	292	27	8	294	83	-9	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.4
2032	26	MLB	PIT	56%	512	456	101	18	3	12	43	141	8	6	2	221	300	353	653	132	292	28	8	296	84	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2033	27	MLB	PIT	55%	520	463	102	18	3	12	44	143	8	7	2	220	299	350	649	130	292	28	8	296	84	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2034	28	MLB	PIT	55%	520	462	102	18	3	12	45	144	8	6	2	221	301	351	652	130	291	28	9	295	84	-10	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.4
2035	29	MLB	PIT	53%	515	457	100	18	3	11	45	144	8	6	2	219	300	344	644	125	290	28	9	293	82	-10	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2036	30	MLB	PIT	53%	507	450	98	17	3	11	44	143	8	5	2	218	299	342	641	124	289	28	9	290	80	-11	+0	-2	+9	+14	1.0
2037	31	MLB	PIT	52%	479	427	92	16	3	10	42	136	7	4	1	215	296	337	633	122	286	28	9	286	77	-13	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.7
2038	32	MLB	PIT	52%	447	398	83	14	2	9	39	129	7	3	1	209	291	322	612	113	283	29	9	280	73	-14	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.4
2039	33	MLB	PIT	56%	407	363	74	12	2	8	35	119	6	2	1	204	285	314	599	110	279	29	9	274	68	-15	+0	-4	+7	+12	-0.0
2040	34	MLB	PIT	51%	354	316	62	10	2	6	30	106	5	1	0	196	276	297	574	101	273	30	8	265	61	-15	+0	-5	+6	+10	-0.4
2027	21	MLB	PIT	34%	58	52	11	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	212	293	308	601	96	286	29	9	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	22	MLB	PIT	48%	146	131	28	5	1	3	12	41	2	2	1	214	290	336	626	122	288	28	8	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	23	MLB	PIT	54%	213	190	40	7	1	4	18	59	3	3	1	211	289	321	610	111	289	28	8	275	69	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2030	24	MLB	PIT	55%	253	226	50	9	2	5	21	70	4	3	1	221	299	345	644	124	290	28	8	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2031	25	MLB	PIT	56%	275	246	55	10	2	6	23	76	4	3	1	224	300	354	654	130	290	28	8	281	73	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2032	26	MLB	PIT	56%	288	257	57	10	2	7	24	79	5	4	1	222	301	358	659	136	290	27	8	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	27	MLB	PIT	55%	288	256	57	10	2	7	25	79	5	4	1	223	304	359	664	137	290	27	9	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2034	28	MLB	PIT	55%	285	253	56	10	2	6	25	79	5	3	1	221	304	348	652	126	290	28	9	282	74	-8	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.5
2035	29	MLB	PIT	53%	275	245	53	9	2	6	24	77	4	3	1	216	297	343	640	127	289	28	9	280	72	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2036	30	MLB	PIT	53%	267	238	52	9	2	6	23	75	4	3	1	218	298	349	647	130	287	28	9	277	70	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2037	31	MLB	PIT	52%	250	222	46	8	1	5	22	71	4	2	1	207	290	320	610	113	285	28	9	273	67	-9	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2038	32	MLB	PIT	52%	232	206	43	7	1	5	20	67	4	2	1	209	291	325	617	117	282	29	9	268	63	-10	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.1
2039	33	MLB	PIT	56%	228	203	41	7	1	4	20	67	3	1	0	202	283	305	589	103	277	29	9	262	59	-11	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.2
2040	34	MLB	PIT	51%	182	161	32	5	1	3	16	55	3	1	0	199	283	298	581	99	272	30	9	254	52	-10	+0	-3	+3	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3240	2887	621	108	20	68	278	912	51	35	11	215	295	337	633	122	288	28	9	275	69	-114	+3	-10	+58	+92	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	125	22	4	14	56	183	10	7	2	216	296	340	636	124	288	28	9	275	69	-23	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	6446	5730	1214	213	38	128	554	1826	109	70	23	212	294	329	623	117	285	28	9	283	75	-183	+5	-20	+115	+183	10.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	122	21	4	13	56	184	11	7	2	211	293	329	622	118	284	28	9	283	75	-18	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Guardians Red	—	113	90	16	3	1	0	17	15	4	1	0	178	333	233	567	56	208	13	15	275	69	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	18	ROK	DSL CLE Goryl	—	103	79	18	5	1	1	19	22	5	3	2	228	408	354	762	127	304	21	18	359	133	+4	-0	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	19	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	92	72	15	2	0	0	15	26	5	2	0	208	380	236	617	28	326	28	16	309	95	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,320	69	35	217	294	340	+59	+32	6.8	6.0
	/162	664	14	7	217	294	340	+11.9	+6.4	1.4	pk7: 5
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pablo Arosemena (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	211/309/296	85	304	1	1	30%	11%	70	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→47	39→55	49→30	44	205/276/287	82	282	6	6	28%	7%	56	-1.3	210/273/295	85	266	7	4	22%	7%	57	-1.2	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕David Bote 2013 · A	20	42→48	38→55	50→45	43	198/270/283	85	290	4	8	31%	8%	53	-1.5	186/260/267	81	263	5	6	29%	7%	45	-2.1	236/310/400	165	301	20	6	27%	8%	96	+1.1
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Yairo Muñoz 2015 · A	20	41→51	38→50	48→55	43	198/255/280	82	264	5	7	26%	6%	46	-2.0	218/253/322	104	271	10	9	23%	4%	55	-1.4	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	35→45	42→55	45→50	44	176/254/278	102	265	9	7	35%	9%	46	-2.0	196/287/331	135	277	14	9	32%	11%	73	-0.1	224/298/396	172	291	21	8	29%	9%	92	+0.9
●Leo Jiménez 2021 · A	20	44→49	37→45	50→45	46	209/267/287	78	267	4	6	23%	7%	52	-1.6	236/347/327	91	303	7	8	22%	10%	99	+1.7	226/327/323	97	289	8	8	22%	9%	87	+0.4
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→55	46→40	39	210/252/306	96	282	8	6	28%	5%	50	-1.7	208/243/347	139	281	18	3	32%	4%	59	-1.1	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→46	42→50	45	38	202/252/305	103	275	9	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	201/256/343	142	286	15	8	34%	6%	63	-0.9	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	40	-2.4	186/288/267	81	287	6	15	33%	11%	59	-1.1	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Gavin Cecchini 2014 · A	20	42→52	37→45	46→45	41	199/250/271	71	282	4	7	29%	6%	40	-2.4	233/284/333	100	284	7	5	19%	6%	71	-0.3	245/297/343	98	290	7	5	17%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2