Wilkin Paredes

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	18	16	90	5.10	3.87	19.7%	4.6%	—	K 14.1% · BB 5.6% · FIP 4.94
2025	21	MIX2 levels	22	22	116	3.73	4.54	12.8%	8.4%	—	K 9.6% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.10
2026	22	AARI	23	10	75	4.68	3.86	18.6%	9.0%	—	K 13.7% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	23	MLBARI	11	11	62	5.87	5.87	10.0%	12.6%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBARI	8	8	46	5.59	5.51	13.0%	11.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBARI	12	12	72	5.37	5.29	14.8%	11.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff20Control45Command20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsIan Clarkin (age 23) · Mike Gosling (age 23) · Jake Zokan (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128137vR 145

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%10.0%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%-2.6%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4545

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Red	12	10	46	206	49	15	3	83%	3.8	16.2%	9.1%	7.1%	2.2%	5.09	4.11	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Red	12	10	46	206	49	15	3	83%	3.8	23.8%	7.3%	16.5%	1.5%	5.09	2.80	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	90	391	77	18	13	89%	5.0	14.1%	5.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.10	4.94	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	90	391	77	18	13	89%	5.0	14.1%	5.6%	8.6%	4.2%	5.10	4.94	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	90	391	77	18	13	89%	5.0	19.7%	4.6%	15.1%	3.3%	5.10	3.87	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	501	64	42	13	100%	5.3	9.6%	9.8%	-0.2%	2.9%	3.73	5.10	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	501	64	42	13	100%	5.3	9.6%	9.8%	-0.2%	2.9%	3.73	5.10	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	501	64	42	13	100%	5.3	12.8%	8.4%	4.4%	2.6%	3.73	4.54	—
2026	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	10	75	334	62	30	7	43%	3.3	13.7%	10.6%	3.1%	2.7%	4.68	4.78	—
2026	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	10	75	334	62	30	7	43%	3.3	13.7%	10.6%	3.1%	2.7%	4.68	4.78	—
2026	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	23	10	75	334	62	30	7	43%	3.3	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	2.1%	4.68	3.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ARI	11	11	62	262	26	33	8	100%	5.6	10.0%	12.6%	-2.6%	3.0%	5.87	5.87	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	107	451	58	53	13	100%	5.9	13.0%	11.9%	1.1%	3.0%	5.59	5.51	-0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	108	456	68	52	13	100%	6.0	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	2.9%	5.37	5.29	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	108	456	72	51	13	100%	6.0	15.9%	11.2%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	5.18	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	106	449	72	50	13	100%	5.9	16.0%	11.2%	4.8%	3.0%	5.20	5.19	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	103	436	69	49	14	100%	6.1	15.9%	11.3%	4.6%	3.1%	5.25	5.28	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	99	416	65	48	14	100%	6.2	15.7%	11.6%	4.1%	3.2%	5.34	5.41	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	93	391	60	46	13	100%	6.2	15.3%	11.9%	3.4%	3.4%	5.49	5.58	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	46	194	25	23	6	100%	5.8	13.0%	11.9%	1.1%	3.0%	5.59	5.51	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	72	304	45	35	9	100%	6.0	14.8%	11.4%	3.4%	2.9%	5.37	5.29	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	86	363	58	41	11	100%	6.1	15.9%	11.2%	4.7%	2.9%	5.23	5.18	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	91	384	62	43	12	100%	6.1	16.0%	11.2%	4.8%	3.0%	5.20	5.19	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	92	388	62	44	12	100%	6.1	15.9%	11.3%	4.6%	3.1%	5.25	5.28	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	90	380	60	44	12	100%	6.0	15.7%	11.6%	4.1%	3.2%	5.34	5.41	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	85	359	55	43	12	100%	6.1	15.3%	11.9%	3.4%	3.4%	5.49	5.58	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	560	2366	365	271	73	100%	6.0	15.4%	11.5%	3.9%	3.1%	5.33	4.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	130	97	26	100%	6.0	15.4%	11.5%	3.9%	3.1%	5.33	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		75	58	327	1432	183	125	45	77%	4.4	12.8%	8.7%	4.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.84	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	877	112	77	27	77%	4.4	12.8%	8.7%	4.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.84	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilkin Paredes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	10.0%	12.6%	3.0%	—	5.33	14.6%	3.1%	323	-0.54	—	—	—
Ian Clarkin L 2018 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP-	5.33	9.3%	11.2%	2.9%	.290	6.01	8.1%	-4.9%	82	+0.68	3.79	335	80
Mike Gosling L 2004 · 5.85 FIP	23	SP-	5.85	12.5%	10.7%	4.5%	.259	4.56	14.4%	2.7%	65	-1.29	4.44	116	80
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	79
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	78
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	78
Luke French L 2009 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	13.5%	8.7%	3.5%	.328	5.15	10.0%	2.7%	88	+0.16	4.99	155	78
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	77
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	76
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	76
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	76
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	74
Shane Dawson L 2017 · 5.77 FIP	23	SP-	5.77	9.8%	10.3%	4.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	373	73
Rob Zastryzny L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP	5.33	13.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.345	4.28	18.5%	9.1%	268	-1.05	3.31	634	73
Matt Gunter L 2018 · 5.91 FIP	23	SP	5.91	9.7%	12.7%	3.7%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	72
Jeff Locke L 2011 · 6.46 FIP	23	SP	6.46	6.4%	12.8%	4.2%	.300	4.17	17.6%	8.4%	332	-2.29	3.79	676	72
Gabriel Noguera L 2019 · 5.01 FIP	23	SP-	5.01	14.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.310	7.31	19.1%	-8.6%	27	+2.30	4.41	174	71
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	71
Luis González L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	12.4%	11.8%	2.4%	.386	3.32	24.1%	14.7%	164	-1.56	3.15	416	71
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	71
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	98	14.8%	11.6%	1.19	5.39
Barry Moore ('65-'70, -2 WAR*)	3.0	120	13.4%*	11.1%*	1.15*	5.25*
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Roxie Lawson ('30-'40, 1 WAR*)	4.3	106	14.5%*	11.3%*	1.22*	4.77*
Claude Willoughby ('25-'31, -3 WAR*)	4.2	120	11.9%*	11.3%*	1.16*	5.28*
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Mike Oquist ('99)	2.8	111	14.1%	9.8%	1.18	5.46