Gustavo Marquez — OGILVIE

Gustavo MarquezOF ACL Padres

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR +13%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2031

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .279 / .309

PA143

HR3

K%30

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30→30

PWR

20→20

SPD

45→45

EYE

52↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.6M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	—	—	—
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$9M		$8M	-$1M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	189	162	23	3	0	2	21	72	6	13	5	.142	.265	.198	.462	.056	.239	38	11	.218	25	-16	+1	+0	-1	+5	-1.1
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	178	148	26	2	1	1	20	65	7	17	5	.176	.303	.223	.526	.047	.301	37	11	.239	41	-12	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.7
2025	20	ROK	ACL Padres	171	148	25	4	0	0	11	63	8	6	2	.169	.263	.196	.459	.027	.291	37	6	.208	17	-16	+0	+0	-1	+5	-1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	SD	143	129	27	5	1	3	11	43	2	3	1	.209	.282	.333	.615	.124	.284	30	8	.270	65	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	SD	218	194	42	8	1	5	19	63	3	4	1	.216	.296	.345	.642	.129	.286	29	9	.284	76	-6	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.1
2028	23	MLB 28%	SD	328	291	64	12	2	8	29	92	5	6	1	.220	.302	.357	.659	.137	.287	28	9	.293	82	-7	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.2
2029	24	MLB 45%	SD	404	358	79	15	2	10	37	111	6	7	2	.221	.304	.358	.662	.137	.287	27	9	.299	87	-6	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.4
2030	25	MLB 60%	SD	448	396	88	16	2	12	42	121	7	8	2	.222	.308	.364	.672	.141	.288	27	9	.302	90	-5	+1	+0	-3	+13	0.6
2031	26	MLB 77%	SD	474	419	92	17	2	12	45	128	7	8	2	.220	.306	.356	.661	.136	.289	27	9	.304	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+13	0.7
2032	27	MLB 92%	SD	486	429	96	18	2	13	47	132	7	8	2	.224	.311	.366	.677	.142	.289	27	10	.304	91	-5	+1	+0	-3	+14	0.7
2033	28	MLB	SD	488	431	96	18	2	13	47	134	7	7	1	.223	.309	.364	.674	.142	.288	27	10	.303	90	-5	+1	-1	-3	+14	0.6
2034	29	MLB	SD	483	426	93	17	2	12	47	134	7	7	1	.218	.306	.352	.658	.134	.287	28	10	.301	89	-6	+1	-1	-3	+14	0.4
2035	30	MLB	SD	475	419	91	17	2	12	46	133	7	6	1	.217	.305	.353	.658	.136	.286	28	10	.298	86	-7	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.2
2036	31	MLB	SD	463	408	87	16	2	11	45	132	7	5	0	.213	.302	.343	.645	.130	.284	29	10	.294	83	-9	+1	-3	-3	+13	-0.0
2037	32	MLB	SD	446	393	83	15	2	10	43	129	7	5	0	.211	.300	.336	.636	.125	.283	29	10	.289	80	-10	+1	-4	-3	+13	-0.3
2038	33	MLB	SD	417	368	76	14	2	9	40	124	6	4	0	.207	.295	.329	.623	.122	.281	30	10	.284	76	-12	+1	-4	-3	+12	-0.6
2039	34	MLB	SD	372	328	66	12	1	8	36	113	5	4	0	.201	.290	.317	.607	.116	.279	30	10	.278	71	-12	+1	-5	-2	+11	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6183	5447	1154	209	26	141	586	1789	104	118	26	.212	.300	.337	.638	.126	.286	29	9	.289	79	-145	+13	-20	-37	+175	-1.4
/ 162G	—			650	573	122	22	3	15	62	188	11	12	3	.213	.302	.340	.643	.127	.287	29	10	.289	79	-15	+1	-2	-4	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	189	149	31	6	0	2	34	50	6	13	5	.208	.376	.289	.664	.081	.299	26	18	.322	104	+1	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	178	135	34	3	2	1	33	41	7	17	5	.252	.423	.326	.749	.074	.351	23	19	.352	128	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2025	20	ROK	ACL Padres	171	141	32	6	0	0	18	45	8	6	2	.227	.347	.270	.617	.043	.330	26	11	.290	80	-4	+0	—	—	+5	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gustavo Marquez (OGILVIE)	21	30	20	45	40	.202/.279/.309	.107	.284	3	3	30%	8%	65	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	33	41→45	41→50	41	.168/.252/.259	.091	.262	9	8	37%	8%	41	-2.3	.197/.275/.307	.110	.307	11	5	36%	9%	63	-0.9	.204/.303/.338	.134	.292	14	2	32%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A	21	42	39→40	45→55	37	.199/.254/.291	.092	.307	6	8	35%	6%	48	-1.9	.213/.277/.298	.085	.301	6	15	29%	7%	60	-1.0	.216/.288/.295	.079	.292	7	22	26%	7%	60	-0.3
✕Luis Hidalgo 2017 · A	21	39	43→45	46→45	44	.196/.254/.303	.107	.234	12	12	22%	6%	52	-1.6	.223/.274/.346	.123	.264	13	9	21%	5%	71	-0.3	.259/.302/.380	.121	.288	12	8	14%	4%	89	+0.4
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→35	41→45	47→50	40	.199/.265/.295	.096	.286	9	10	32%	6%	55	-1.4	.204/.294/.305	.101	.301	9	8	32%	10%	70	-0.3	.186/.292/.283	.097	.277	9	10	33%	11%	63	-0.5
✕Anderson Gomes 2007 · A	22	41→38	43→45	47→50	39	.205/.252/.313	.108	.275	10	9	29%	5%	53	-1.5	.220/.270/.333	.113	.292	11	7	27%	6%	66	-0.6	.223/.275/.335	.112	.290	12	5	26%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	40	44→55	39	.185/.250/.273	.088	.268	9	9	33%	6%	43	-2.2	.200/.257/.289	.089	.277	6	11	28%	6%	49	-1.8	.197/.256/.288	.091	.265	4	15	26%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	40	38→40	47→55	47	.192/.263/.275	.082	.250	5	9	24%	8%	48	-1.9	.212/.292/.300	.088	.255	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	.209/.299/.290	.080	.241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Payton Henry 2018 · A	21	40→31	41→45	46→30	38	.191/.255/.294	.102	.304	8	4	38%	7%	50	-1.7	.187/.253/.289	.102	.316	10	2	41%	6%	48	-1.9	.246/.293/.382	.135	.322	19	1	29%	4%	83	+0.2
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	.188/.259/.305	.117	.281	12	9	36%	7%	55	-1.4	.194/.278/.291	.097	.346	7	8	42%	9%	59	-1.1	.146/.273/.221	.075	.359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕Stanley Martinez 2018 · A	21	41	40→45	49→50	46	.200/.273/.294	.093	.261	7	8	25%	7%	58	-1.2	.224/.288/.327	.103	.314	9	7	30%	7%	72	-0.2	.220/.280/.293	.072	.342	5	3	34%	6%	56	-0.4
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	48	.209/.289/.317	.108	.281	9	6	28%	9%	70	-0.3	.221/.304/.311	.090	.312	8	6	29%	9%	75	-0.0	.236/.329/.308	.072	.330	7	6	28%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→30	41→45	49→50	45	.187/.256/.291	.104	.256	8	12	29%	8%	50	-1.8	.177/.255/.265	.088	.259	6	9	31%	9%	43	-2.2	.164/.251/.245	.081	.237	5	8	30%	9%	33	-1.7
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	.214/.278/.298	.084	.285	5	12	26%	8%	60	-1.0	.216/.302/.277	.061	.288	3	24	23%	10%	66	-0.6	.216/.317/.260	.044	.285	1	34	22%	12%	65	-0.3
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	39	38→40	45	45	.191/.251/.267	.076	.256	5	5	26%	7%	40	-2.4	.211/.266/.279	.068	.290	4	6	27%	7%	50	-1.8	.235/.280/.283	.048	.303	3	7	22%	6%	52	-0.5
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	40	.203/.258/.301	.098	.286	8	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	.200/.266/.289	.089	.294	8	9	32%	7%	53	-1.5	.183/.256/.260	.077	.269	7	8	32%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A	20	42	38→40	49→55	44	.200/.281/.272	.073	.296	6	16	32%	8%	56	-1.3	.200/.259/.281	.081	.332	7	9	39%	6%	47	-1.9	.171/.216/.243	.071	.295	8	2	43%	4%	17	-1.1
✕Juan Montes 2016 · A	21	39	39→30	43→55	43	.191/.267/.275	.084	.263	6	5	28%	7%	51	-1.7	.194/.274/.264	.070	.252	5	15	24%	6%	52	-1.6	.185/.271/.239	.053	.243	4	21	23%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Jose Medina 2008 · A	21	42	44→45	45→50	46	.210/.285/.326	.117	.274	12	9	27%	8%	71	-0.3	.205/.283/.322	.117	.286	11	8	30%	8%	69	-0.4	.181/.269/.305	.124	.250	11	4	30%	6%	59	-0.2
✕Ariel Baez 2012 · A	21	39	41→40	43→45	43	.193/.265/.290	.097	.262	8	5	28%	7%	53	-1.5	.197/.256/.281	.084	.281	5	6	30%	6%	46	-2.0	.173/.227/.238	.065	.246	2	6	29%	5%	20	-1.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	43	41→45	50	43	.204/.273/.304	.100	.299	8	11	32%	8%	59	-1.1	.191/.262/.285	.094	.292	6	14	34%	8%	50	-1.7	.147/.226/.244	.097	.221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)