Irving Cota

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	17	1	46	2.96	3.34	27.3%	6.7%	—	K 18.9% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.05
2025	21	MIX3 levels	25	12	99	4.20	2.84	20.9%	5.4%	—	K 15.1% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.81
2026	22	MIX3 levels	10	7	31	2.30	3.16	16.5%	4.7%	—	K 11.5% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.06
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	50	0	52	4.87	4.87	13.1%	7.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYM	37	0	39	4.71	4.65	15.2%	7.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYM	58	0	61	4.59	4.53	16.5%	7.4%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsAdam Bernero (age 23) · Matt Smith (age 22) · Dakota Hawkins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%13.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%5.3%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	14	2	39	171	43	9	0	14%	2.8	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	0.0%	3.66	2.49	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	14	2	39	171	43	9	0	14%	2.8	25.1%	5.3%	19.9%	0.0%	3.66	1.60	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	46	194	53	13	6	6%	2.7	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	4.6%	2.96	5.05	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	46	194	53	13	6	6%	2.7	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	4.6%	2.96	5.05	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	1	46	194	53	13	6	6%	2.7	27.3%	6.7%	20.6%	3.1%	2.96	3.34	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	99	406	85	22	6	48%	3.9	15.1%	6.4%	8.8%	2.2%	4.20	3.81	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	99	406	85	22	6	48%	3.9	15.1%	6.4%	8.8%	2.2%	4.20	3.81	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	12	99	406	85	22	6	48%	3.9	20.9%	5.4%	15.5%	1.5%	4.20	2.84	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	7	31	127	21	6	2	70%	3.1	11.5%	7.3%	4.1%	0.0%	2.30	3.06	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	7	31	127	21	6	2	70%	3.1	11.5%	7.3%	4.1%	0.0%	2.30	3.06	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	7	31	127	21	6	2	70%	3.1	16.5%	4.7%	11.8%	1.6%	2.30	3.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	50	0	52	220	29	17	6	0%	1.0	13.1%	7.8%	5.3%	2.7%	4.87	4.87	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	87	0	91	384	59	29	11	0%	1.0	15.2%	7.5%	7.7%	2.7%	4.71	4.65	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	88	0	92	389	64	29	11	0%	1.0	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	2.7%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	88	0	92	389	67	29	11	0%	1.0	17.2%	7.4%	9.8%	2.8%	4.52	4.48	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	86	0	91	383	66	29	11	0%	1.1	17.3%	7.5%	9.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	84	0	88	372	64	28	11	0%	1.0	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.56	4.59	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	80	0	84	355	60	28	11	0%	1.1	17.0%	7.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.72	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	75	0	79	334	62	25	11	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.4%	11.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	37	0	39	165	25	12	5	0%	1.1	15.2%	7.5%	7.7%	2.7%	4.71	4.65	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	58	0	61	258	43	19	7	0%	1.1	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	2.7%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	53	23	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	7.4%	9.8%	2.8%	4.52	4.48	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	73	0	77	325	56	24	9	0%	1.1	17.3%	7.5%	9.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	74	0	78	329	57	25	10	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.56	4.59	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	72	0	76	321	54	25	10	0%	1.1	17.0%	7.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.66	4.72	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	57	23	10	0%	1.0	18.6%	7.4%	11.3%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		455	0	478	2019	346	152	59	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.20	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	64	25	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.5%	9.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		66	22	215	898	142	62	18	33%	3.3	15.8%	6.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.56	3.72	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	20	200	835	132	58	16	33%	3.3	15.8%	6.9%	8.9%	2.0%	3.56	3.72	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Irving Cota (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	13.1%	7.8%	2.7%	—	4.55	16.3%	8.9%	275	-0.32	—	—	—
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	90
Matt Smith R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	13.0%	6.4%	1.7%	.340	5.04	14.2%	6.7%	115	+1.27	3.77	163	87
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	85
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	85
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	85
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	83
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	83
Kyle Smith R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	14.7%	8.7%	3.8%	.326	3.31	15.2%	9.5%	76	-1.74	3.31	159	83
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	83
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	83
Melvi Acosta R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	12.7%	7.4%	1.4%	.341	3.36	18.2%	10.0%	140	-0.38	2.74	357	82
Bryan Pope R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	23	SW	4.48	13.8%	6.1%	3.2%	.347	4.28	17.7%	7.3%	86	-0.20	3.96	148	82
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	82
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	82
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	82
Chad Jenkins R 2012 · 5.06 FIP	24	SW	5.06	11.8%	7.4%	3.7%	.257	3.56	12.8%	7.6%	159	-1.50	3.26	220	81
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	81
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	81
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	81
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	84	16.7%	7.5%	1.11	4.62
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Chris Rusin ('20)	2.3	78	16.8%	7.6%	1.06	4.65
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Billy Muffett ('57-'62, 1 WAR*)	1.9	94	17.1%*	7.4%*	1.05*	4.52*
Johnny Hetki ('45-'54, 1 WAR*)	2.6	88	14.9%*	7.4%*	1.05*	4.65*
Luke Hochevar ('16)	4.6	116	17.7%	7.5%	1.12	4.98