Brayden Bakes — OGILVIE

Brayden BakesOF Clearwater Threshers

Age 22 L/R A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 71 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .248 / .316

PA71

HR1

K%35

BB%6

ISO120

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	52	48	10	3	0	2	3	18	0	2	0	208	250	396	646	187	286	35	6	281	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	52	50	7	2	0	1	2	24	0	2	0	140	173	240	413	100	250	46	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	52	50	7	2	0	1	2	24	0	2	0	140	173	240	413	100	240	46	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	52	48	10	3	0	2	3	18	0	2	0	208	250	396	646	187	286	35	6	281	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	52	50	7	2	0	1	2	24	0	2	0	140	173	240	413	100	250	46	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	52	50	7	2	0	1	2	24	0	2	0	140	173	240	413	100	250	46	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	162	151	30	6	1	3	9	57	1	3	1	199	250	319	569	120	290	35	6	254	58	-8	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	166	154	31	6	1	4	10	57	1	3	1	202	255	326	580	123	291	34	6	259	62	-8	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	57	54	10	2	0	1	3	20	0	1	0	204	256	331	587	128	291	35	5	262	62	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	57	54	10	2	0	1	3	20	0	1	0	185	228	278	506	93	273	35	5	262	53	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	616	114	23	0	11	34	228	0	11	0	185	228	276	504	91	273	35	5	262	53	-30	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	289	271	51	11	1	6	16	106	1	6	1	188	236	303	539	114	281	37	6	247	53	-11	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	610	114	25	2	13	36	238	2	13	2	187	235	298	533	111	280	37	6	247	53	-30	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brayden Bakes (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	197/248/316	119	290	1	1	35%	6%	58	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rixon Wingrove 2022 · A	22	35→34	44→50	47→40	37	182/244/298	117	281	13	4	38%	6%	53	-2.1	191/255/335	144	295	18	4	40%	6%	65	-1.2	182/250/335	153	264	21	3	38%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	39→33	43→45	51→50	42	193/261/303	109	286	10	12	34%	8%	60	-1.6	207/272/319	112	304	11	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Gage Canning 2019 · A	22	42→37	45→40	50	37	207/261/334	127	314	12	8	37%	6%	67	-1.1	197/247/285	88	320	7	9	38%	5%	50	-2.3	193/244/272	79	313	6	8	38%	5%	42	-1.9
✕Estee Harris 2006 · A	21	37→32	44→50	50	37	190/237/306	116	273	11	14	34%	6%	51	-2.2	189/241/290	101	317	9	13	41%	6%	49	-2.4	173/225/264	91	319	8	13	46%	6%	34	-1.1
✕Mitchell Hansen 2018 · A	22	40→36	44→45	51→50	39	200/248/314	114	280	11	10	32%	6%	57	-1.8	194/243/294	100	292	8	9	34%	6%	51	-2.3	160/203/246	86	252	4	8	37%	4%	22	-1.9
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Yeicok Calderon 2014 · A	22	35	45→40	45	34	180/230/299	119	293	14	5	42%	6%	47	-2.5	209/254/322	113	332	11	7	38%	5%	61	-1.5	210/247/327	117	329	11	5	38%	4%	58	-0.7
✕Jacob Wetzel 2022 · A	22	43→34	42→45	49→50	42	205/281/307	102	313	11	8	36%	8%	69	-0.9	191/271/297	106	275	10	12	32%	9%	63	-1.4	178/263/291	113	252	9	14	31%	9%	56	-1.1
✕Johnny Woodard 2007 · A	22	39→36	44→45	48→30	37	194/254/304	110	301	12	4	38%	7%	57	-1.8	198/277/324	126	306	14	3	37%	8%	72	-0.7	184/272/313	128	281	14	1	37%	9%	65	-0.7
✕Brian Pointer 2014 · A	22	39→41	42→45	51→50	40	189/265/296	107	289	9	13	36%	7%	61	-1.5	210/285/338	128	315	13	12	35%	8%	77	-0.3	209/287/345	136	311	14	12	35%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Stephen Chapman 2008 · A	22	40→37	49→50	52→50	36	206/255/355	149	285	16	10	33%	5%	70	-0.9	181/232/310	129	284	14	13	40%	5%	51	-2.3	150/203/267	117	240	13	16	42%	5%	29	-2.2
✕Izzy Wilson 2019 · A	21	39→35	42→45	52→55	37	189/247/289	101	313	10	13	41%	7%	51	-2.2	193/261/305	112	326	12	18	41%	8%	60	-1.6	182/254/312	130	278	16	23	38%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Alexis Rivera 2016 · A	22	41	44→45	49→50	41	205/261/317	113	282	11	10	31%	6%	63	-1.4	227/269/334	107	305	10	8	28%	5%	69	-0.9	242/270/333	91	317	8	6	26%	3%	66	-0.5
✕D.J. Wilson 2019 · A	22	38	41→50	50	39	185/243/283	99	282	8	13	36%	7%	48	-2.5	183/250/280	97	308	9	14	40%	8%	51	-2.3	104/190/192	88	178	12	21	47%	9%	9	-1.5
✕Tyler Frost 2019 · A	23	37→33	47→50	48→50	38	190/248/327	136	277	15	6	36%	6%	61	-1.5	188/244/302	114	319	12	8	42%	6%	53	-2.1	163/219/262	99	294	10	9	46%	5%	33	-2.8
✕Miguel Aparicio 2021 · A	22	40→38	44→50	51→50	37	201/240/322	121	260	11	8	27%	4%	55	-1.9	207/267/359	152	285	18	8	33%	6%	76	-0.4	182/251/346	164	243	22	6	34%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Alex Iadisernia 2024 · A	23	38→37	46→50	52→55	43	196/263/328	132	261	14	16	30%	7%	67	-1.1	197/263/295	98	277	8	16	30%	7%	59	-1.7	178/248/250	72	257	3	19	30%	7%	42	-2.0
✕Taylor Snyder 2017 · A	22	41→33	45→50	48→50	38	202/262/327	125	304	12	9	36%	6%	65	-1.2	187/231/300	113	287	11	11	37%	4%	48	-2.5	186/235/335	149	266	18	12	36%	5%	56	-1.3
✕Tyler Miller 2023 · A	23	36→28	43→45	53→50	35	185/238/287	102	283	12	13	38%	6%	47	-2.5	192/235/297	105	266	11	11	31%	5%	48	-2.5	185/226/289	104	245	10	9	28%	4%	41	-1.7
✕Jared Walker 2018 · A	22	39→32	48→55	45	33	189/245/331	142	328	17	6	46%	6%	61	-1.5	191/272/350	159	302	19	6	41%	8%	76	-0.4	161/254/311	151	264	19	6	44%	8%	59	-1.0