Joel Hurtado

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #265

Scout OFP40ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+LAA	26	26	139	4.61	3.69	21.3%	13.0%	—	K 16.4% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.57
2025	24	MIX2 levels	19	19	92	2.75	3.58	15.5%	7.3%	—	K 12.5% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.14
2026	25	MIX2 levels	28	28	137	4.65	4.92	19.1%	9.9%	—	K 15.7% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.56
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	26	26	159	5.44	5.44	15.7%	11.0%	-1.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBLAA	10	10	59	5.34	5.36	16.3%	10.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBLAA	15	15	90	5.32	5.36	16.6%	10.7%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff51Control45Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJuan Carlos Sulbaran (age 26) · Chi Chi González (age 27) · Carlos Pimentel (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%15.7%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP159

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD4045

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	5	4	18	74	21	9	3	80%	3.6	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	7.1%	3.50	7.28	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	5	4	18	74	21	9	3	80%	3.6	28.4%	12.2%	16.2%	4.1%	3.50	4.43	—
2023	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	10	78	342	90	31	2	45%	3.5	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	0.8%	5.42	3.28	—
2023	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	22	10	78	342	90	31	2	45%	3.5	26.3%	9.1%	17.3%	0.6%	5.42	2.32	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	139	629	134	82	8	100%	5.3	16.4%	15.0%	1.4%	1.7%	4.61	4.57	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	139	629	134	82	8	100%	5.3	16.4%	15.0%	1.4%	1.7%	4.61	4.57	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	26	26	139	629	134	82	8	100%	5.3	21.3%	13.0%	8.3%	1.3%	4.61	3.69	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	381	59	28	6	100%	4.8	12.5%	8.2%	4.3%	1.9%	2.75	4.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	381	59	28	6	100%	4.8	12.5%	8.2%	4.3%	1.9%	2.75	4.14	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	92	381	59	28	6	100%	4.8	15.5%	7.3%	8.1%	1.6%	2.75	3.58	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	137	593	113	59	23	100%	4.9	15.7%	10.2%	5.5%	4.5%	4.65	5.56	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	137	593	113	59	23	100%	4.9	15.7%	10.2%	5.5%	4.5%	4.65	5.56	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	137	593	113	59	23	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.9%	9.1%	3.9%	4.65	4.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	26	26	159	671	106	74	23	100%	6.1	15.7%	11.0%	4.7%	3.5%	5.44	5.44	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	156	660	108	71	23	100%	6.0	16.3%	10.8%	5.6%	3.5%	5.34	5.36	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	152	640	107	68	23	100%	6.1	16.6%	10.7%	6.0%	3.5%	5.32	5.36	-0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	145	611	102	66	22	100%	6.0	16.7%	10.8%	5.9%	3.6%	5.37	5.43	-0.9
2031	30	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	136	575	95	63	22	100%	5.9	16.4%	11.0%	5.5%	3.8%	5.49	5.58	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	41	27	9	100%	5.9	16.3%	10.8%	5.6%	3.5%	5.34	5.36	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	90	380	63	41	13	100%	6.0	16.6%	10.7%	6.0%	3.5%	5.32	5.36	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	102	431	72	46	16	100%	6.0	16.7%	10.8%	5.9%	3.6%	5.37	5.43	-0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	107	452	74	50	17	100%	5.9	16.4%	11.0%	5.5%	3.8%	5.49	5.58	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	358	1512	250	163	55	100%	6.0	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	3.6%	5.39	5.07	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	140	91	31	100%	6.0	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	3.6%	5.39	5.07	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		100	87	464	2019	325	234	53	87%	4.6	16.1%	11.6%	4.5%	2.6%	4.35	4.66	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	38	200	871	140	101	23	87%	4.6	16.1%	11.6%	4.5%	2.6%	4.35	4.66	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Hurtado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	15.7%	11.0%	3.5%	—	5.38	16.5%	5.8%	453	-0.06	—	—	—
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	83
Chi Chi González R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	27	SP	4.99	16.7%	10.5%	3.6%	.302	4.55	15.3%	7.8%	225	-0.44	4.01	800	83
Carlos Pimentel R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	16.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.339	4.61	11.9%	-0.6%	13	+0.31	4.30	301	83
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	81
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	80
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	80
Scarlyn Reyes R 2016 · 4.52 FIP	26	SP	4.52	13.9%	11.9%	2.0%	.321	4.87	13.7%	5.3%	70	+0.35	4.16	317	80
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	79
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	79
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	79
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	79
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	79
Thomas Farr R 2024 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP	5.38	12.6%	9.3%	4.0%	.295	5.61	10.6%	1.2%	83	+0.23	5.05	423	78
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2024 · 5.14 FIP	26	SP	5.14	14.8%	11.1%	3.4%	.280	4.32	17.5%	4.0%	184	-0.82	3.65	492	78
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	77
Lindsey Caughel R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.276	5.12	13.3%	5.0%	29	+0.63	4.49	187	77
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	77
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	76
Austin Orewiler R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP	4.46	12.5%	9.3%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	484	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	150	16.4%	10.8%	1.38	5.39
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Dan Wright ('04)	1.8	122	13.7%	10.2%	1.60	5.65