Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 37 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 42 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 5.22 | 3.90 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 37 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 42 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 5.22 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 33 | 2 | 65 | 277 | 53 | 32 | 3 | 6% | 2.0 | 14.7% | 13.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 3.44 | 4.17 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 33 | 2 | 65 | 277 | 53 | 32 | 3 | 6% | 2.0 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 1.1% | 3.44 | 3.54 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 32 | 11 | 83 | 375 | 68 | 40 | 12 | 34% | 2.6 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.67 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 32 | 11 | 83 | 375 | 68 | 40 | 12 | 34% | 2.6 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 5.31 | 4.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | COL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 38 | 42 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.9% | 14.3% | -1.4% | 3.0% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 5.67 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 45 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.57 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 5.67 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 28 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.57 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 47 | 42 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 13.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.61 | 5.22 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 128 | 114 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 13.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.61 | 5.22 | +0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 13 | 199 | 876 | 125 | 105 | 21 | 13% | 1.9 | 14.3% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 13 | 200 | 879 | 126 | 106 | 21 | 13% | 1.9 | 14.3% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Braxton Hyde (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 12.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.61 | 15.2% | 1.6% | 139 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Clate Schmidt R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 86 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 83 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 82 |
| Jarod Wright R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.87 | 12.7% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .282 | 4.28 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 53 | -1.59 | 4.28 | 170 | 82 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 82 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 82 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 81 |
| Dillon McNamara R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 13.3% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .229 | 2.98 | 21.2% | 12.3% | 69 | -2.39 | 1.73 | 244 | 81 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 81 |
| Zach Nuding R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 81 |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 80 |
| James Pugliese R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.90 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 218 | 80 |
| Reece Karalus R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 80 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2028 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 79 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 79 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 79 |
| Logan Sendelbach R 2025 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 12.3% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 340 | 78 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .285 | 5.19 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.48 | 4.65 | 113 | 78 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2024 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 78 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 188 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 14.4% | 13.8% | 1.18 | 5.71 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |