Byron Chourio

CF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 22 S/R 6'2" / 171 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419AMIN366.207/.276/.27722316—.158/.214/.215
202520AMIN241.193/.340/.23411131—.152/.261/.186
202621A+/AMIN329.290/.403/.457103493—.238/.329/.367
2027PROJMLE22MLBMIN439.181/.269/.26761855-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBMIN87.188/.276/.2852461-0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBMIN154.193/.281/.2983666-0.2
Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
wOBA91
wRC+91
Speed87
BB%77
ISO71
Z-Con%71
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 3.4, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 86%
CompsHayden Cantrelle (age 23) · Terry Serrano (age 22) · Robert Moore (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†55
AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .267 / .264
PA210
HR3
SB8
K%29
BB%10
ISO86
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -11.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-11BATRUN: +1.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Marlins — 217183 63901 25275 197 344437410846 66390 1212 381 63 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Twins — 10684 22300 20192 42 262415298713 36338 1819 344 59 — — — — — —
202419 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 366328 68752 291042 235 207276277553 70289 288 251 16 — — — — — —
202520 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 241197 38311 41503 115 193340234574 41253 2117 283 31 — — — — — —
202621 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels — 9476 23413 14202 120 303424500924 197370 2115 402 114 — — — — — —
202621 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 235193 55717 33554 224 285395440835 155364 2314 372 84 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 217190 43600 18325 197 226310258568 32256 158 262 63 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 10691 18200 13272 42 198311220531 22284 2512 256 59 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 366335 53542 221422 235 158214215429 57251 396 192 16 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 241210 32211 28683 115 152261186447 33222 2812 214 31 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLECedar Rapids Kernels — 9480 20312 10252 120 250348388735 138334 2711 337 114 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 235206 48616 23754 224 233322359681 126321 3210 293 84 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 217190 43600 18325 197 226310258568 32265 158 262 63 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Marlins — 217183 63901 25275 197 344437410846 66390 1212 381 63 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 10691 18200 13272 42 198311220531 22281 2512 256 59 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWFCL Twins — 10684 22300 20192 42 262415298713 36338 1819 344 59 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 366335 53542 221422 235 158214215429 57259 396 192 16 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 366328 68752 291042 235 207276277553 70289 288 251 16 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 241210 32211 28683 115 152261186447 33220 2812 214 31 — — — — — —
202520 A RAWFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 241197 38311 41503 115 193340234574 41253 2117 283 31 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 329286 68928 331006 344 238329367696 129333 3010 306 93 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW2 teams — 329269 7811210 47756 344 290403457860 167366 2314 380 93 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Marlins — 217192 43600 18325 197 224310255565 31256 158 262 63 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Twins — 10690 18200 13272 42 200311222534 22284 2512 256 59 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 366339 53542 221422 235 156214212427 56251 396 192 16 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 241208 32211 28683 115 154261188449 34222 2812 214 31 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 329287 68928 331006 344 237329366695 129325 3010 306 93 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 366339 53542 221422 235 156214212427 56251 396 192 16 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEFort Myers Mighty Mussels — 241208 32211 28683 115 154261188449 34222 2812 214 31 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 329287 68928 331006 344 237329366695 129325 3010 306 93 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEMIN 0% 439389 701026 421255 183 181269267536 86245 2810 249 55 -24 +2 +0 +2 +10 -0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEMIN 34% 253224 41614 24703 102 188276285561 97249 289 259 61 -12 +1 +0 +1 +5 -0.4
202924 MLB MLEMIN 46% 334295 57826 32914 142 193280297578 105252 2710 265 66 -14 +2 +0 +1 +7 -0.3
203025 MLB MLEMIN 52% 379335 661028 371024 153 196283305589 109254 2710 270 69 -14 +2 +0 +1 +8 -0.3
203126 MLB MLEMIN 54% 404358 711128 391084 163 198285310595 112256 2710 272 70 -14 +2 +0 +1 +9 -0.2
203227 MLB MLEMIN 54% 414367 731129 401114 163 200286313599 113257 2710 274 71 -14 +2 +0 +1 +9 -0.2
203328 MLB MLEMIN 54% 416369 731129 401124 143 198284308592 110257 2710 271 70 -15 +2 -1 +1 +9 -0.4
203429 MLB MLEMIN 58% 407361 711128 391114 122 196282302584 106255 2710 268 67 -16 +2 -1 +1 +9 -0.6
202823 MLB CTXMIN 34% 8778 14202 8241 41 188276285561 98249 289 259 61 -4 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
202924 MLB CTXMIN 46% 154136 27413 15422 61 193281298578 105252 2710 266 66 -6 +1 +0 +1 +3 -0.2
203025 MLB CTXMIN 52% 196173 34514 19532 81 196283306589 110254 2710 270 69 -7 +1 +0 +1 +4 -0.1
203126 MLB CTXMIN 54% 219194 39615 21592 92 198285311596 112256 2710 273 70 -8 +1 +0 +1 +5 -0.1
203227 MLB CTXMIN 54% 225199 40615 22602 92 200286313599 113258 2710 274 71 -8 +1 +0 +1 +5 -0.1
203328 MLB CTXMIN 54% 226200 40615 22612 81 198284309593 111257 2710 271 70 -8 +1 -0 +1 +5 -0.2
203429 MLB CTXMIN 58% 235208 41615 23642 71 196282303584 107255 2710 268 67 -9 +1 -1 +1 +5 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 13421188 23535629 13036313 519 198284311595 113257 2710 270 62 -50 +7 -1 +5 +29 -1.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 11417314 631766 254 198284311595 113258 2710 270 62 -24 +3 -1 +2 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 40763607 700972166 385113447 19643 194280287568 93261 289 260 62 -110 +13 -2 +10 +61 -2.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650575 11115311 611817 317 193278287565 94258 289 260 62 -25 +3 -0 +2 +14 -0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 235 PAwOBA .364 → .293 (−71)K% 23.4% → 31.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.40%÷1.000×1.360——31.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.04%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0159.83%
HBP% /PA1.70%—×0.780—×1.0151.35%
Singles /BIP28.99%÷1.000×0.920×0.969×1.01526.23%
Doubles /BIP5.07%÷1.000×0.830×0.969×1.0154.14%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷1.000×0.910×0.969×1.0150.65%
Home runs /BIP5.07%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0154.12%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .364 → .293; ISO .155 → .123; BABIP .364 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 94 PAwOBA .396 → .337 (−60)K% 21.3% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.28%÷1.000×1.270——27.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.89%÷1.000×0.710—×1.02710.86%
HBP% /PA2.13%—×0.790—×1.0271.73%
Singles /BIP26.79%÷1.000×0.920×0.992×1.02725.12%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.000×0.810×0.992×1.0275.90%
Triples /BIP1.79%÷1.000×0.850×0.992×1.0271.55%
Home runs /BIP5.36%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0274.40%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .396 → .337; ISO .197 → .166; BABIP .370 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 241 PAwOBA .277 → .214 (−63)K% 20.7% → 28.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.75%÷0.994×1.360——28.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.01%÷1.054×0.690—×1.03011.47%
HBP% /PA1.24%—×0.780—×1.0301.00%
Singles /BIP22.45%÷1.029×0.920×0.958×1.03019.82%
Doubles /BIP2.04%÷1.032×0.830×0.958×1.0301.62%
Triples /BIP0.68%÷1.000×0.910×0.958×1.0300.61%
Home runs /BIP0.68%÷0.898×0.800—×1.0300.62%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .277 → .214; ISO .041 → .034; BABIP .253 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 366 PAwOBA .249 → .192 (−56)K% 28.4% → 38.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.42%÷0.994×1.360——38.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.92%÷0.976×0.690—×1.0455.85%
HBP% /PA0.55%—×0.780—×1.0450.45%
Singles /BIP24.11%÷1.096×0.920×0.986×1.04520.85%
Doubles /BIP3.12%÷1.019×0.830×0.986×1.0452.62%
Triples /BIP2.23%÷0.962×0.910×0.986×1.0452.17%
Home runs /BIP0.89%÷0.962×0.800—×1.0450.78%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .249 → .192; ISO .070 → .057; BABIP .289 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Twins · 106 PAwOBA .337 → .256 (−81)K% 17.9% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.92%÷1.025×1.440——25.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.87%÷0.963×0.620—×1.02212.43%
HBP% /PA1.89%—×0.720—×1.0221.39%
Singles /BIP29.23%÷1.018×0.820×1.036×1.02224.96%
Doubles /BIP4.62%÷1.014×0.720×1.036×1.0223.47%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.934×0.720×1.036×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.913×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .337 → .256; ISO .036 → .027; BABIP .338 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Marlins · 217 PAwOBA .379 → .262 (−117)K% 12.4% → 14.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.44%÷1.019×1.220——14.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.52%÷0.975×0.700—×1.0228.46%
HBP% /PA2.30%—×0.700—×1.0221.65%
Singles /BIP33.97%÷1.010×0.680×0.970×1.02222.68%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷0.991×0.600×0.970×1.0223.46%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.600×0.970×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.64%÷1.016×0.470—×1.0220.30%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .379 → .262; ISO .066 → .039; BABIP .390 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).