Byron Chourio
CF Fort Myers Mighty Mussels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | AMIN | 366 | .207/.276/.277 | 2 | 23 | 16 | — | .158/.214/.215 |
| 2025 | 20 | AMIN | 241 | .193/.340/.234 | 1 | 11 | 31 | — | .152/.261/.186 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/AMIN | 329 | .290/.403/.457 | 10 | 34 | 93 | — | .238/.329/.367 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBMIN | 439 | .181/.269/.267 | 6 | 18 | 55 | -0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBMIN | 87 | .188/.276/.285 | 2 | 4 | 61 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBMIN | 154 | .193/.281/.298 | 3 | 6 | 66 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | — | 217 | 183 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 27 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 344 | 437 | 410 | 846 | 66 | 390 | 12 | 12 | 381 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 262 | 415 | 298 | 713 | 36 | 338 | 18 | 19 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 366 | 328 | 68 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 104 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 207 | 276 | 277 | 553 | 70 | 289 | 28 | 8 | 251 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 241 | 197 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 50 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 193 | 340 | 234 | 574 | 41 | 253 | 21 | 17 | 283 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 94 | 76 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 303 | 424 | 500 | 924 | 197 | 370 | 21 | 15 | 402 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 235 | 193 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 55 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 285 | 395 | 440 | 835 | 155 | 364 | 23 | 14 | 372 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 217 | 190 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 226 | 310 | 258 | 568 | 32 | 256 | 15 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 198 | 311 | 220 | 531 | 22 | 284 | 25 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 366 | 335 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 142 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 158 | 214 | 215 | 429 | 57 | 251 | 39 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 241 | 210 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 68 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 152 | 261 | 186 | 447 | 33 | 222 | 28 | 12 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 94 | 80 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 250 | 348 | 388 | 735 | 138 | 334 | 27 | 11 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 235 | 206 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 75 | 4 | 22 | 4 | 233 | 322 | 359 | 681 | 126 | 321 | 32 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 217 | 190 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 226 | 310 | 258 | 568 | 32 | 265 | 15 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Marlins | — | 217 | 183 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 27 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 344 | 437 | 410 | 846 | 66 | 390 | 12 | 12 | 381 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 198 | 311 | 220 | 531 | 22 | 281 | 25 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 262 | 415 | 298 | 713 | 36 | 338 | 18 | 19 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 366 | 335 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 142 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 158 | 214 | 215 | 429 | 57 | 259 | 39 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 366 | 328 | 68 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 104 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 207 | 276 | 277 | 553 | 70 | 289 | 28 | 8 | 251 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 241 | 210 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 68 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 152 | 261 | 186 | 447 | 33 | 220 | 28 | 12 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 241 | 197 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 50 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 193 | 340 | 234 | 574 | 41 | 253 | 21 | 17 | 283 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 329 | 286 | 68 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 100 | 6 | 34 | 4 | 238 | 329 | 367 | 696 | 129 | 333 | 30 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 329 | 269 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 75 | 6 | 34 | 4 | 290 | 403 | 457 | 860 | 167 | 366 | 23 | 14 | 380 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 217 | 192 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 5 | 19 | 7 | 224 | 310 | 255 | 565 | 31 | 256 | 15 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 106 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 200 | 311 | 222 | 534 | 22 | 284 | 25 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 366 | 339 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 142 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 156 | 214 | 212 | 427 | 56 | 251 | 39 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 241 | 208 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 68 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 154 | 261 | 188 | 449 | 34 | 222 | 28 | 12 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 329 | 287 | 68 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 100 | 6 | 34 | 4 | 237 | 329 | 366 | 695 | 129 | 325 | 30 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 366 | 339 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 142 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 156 | 214 | 212 | 427 | 56 | 251 | 39 | 6 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 241 | 208 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 68 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 154 | 261 | 188 | 449 | 34 | 222 | 28 | 12 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 329 | 287 | 68 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 100 | 6 | 34 | 4 | 237 | 329 | 366 | 695 | 129 | 325 | 30 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 439 | 389 | 70 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 125 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 181 | 269 | 267 | 536 | 86 | 245 | 28 | 10 | 249 | 55 | -24 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 34% | 253 | 224 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 70 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 188 | 276 | 285 | 561 | 97 | 249 | 28 | 9 | 259 | 61 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 46% | 334 | 295 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 91 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 193 | 280 | 297 | 578 | 105 | 252 | 27 | 10 | 265 | 66 | -14 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 52% | 379 | 335 | 66 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 102 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 196 | 283 | 305 | 589 | 109 | 254 | 27 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -14 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 404 | 358 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 108 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 198 | 285 | 310 | 595 | 112 | 256 | 27 | 10 | 272 | 70 | -14 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 414 | 367 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 111 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 200 | 286 | 313 | 599 | 113 | 257 | 27 | 10 | 274 | 71 | -14 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 54% | 416 | 369 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 112 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 198 | 284 | 308 | 592 | 110 | 257 | 27 | 10 | 271 | 70 | -15 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 58% | 407 | 361 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 111 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 196 | 282 | 302 | 584 | 106 | 255 | 27 | 10 | 268 | 67 | -16 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 34% | 87 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 188 | 276 | 285 | 561 | 98 | 249 | 28 | 9 | 259 | 61 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 46% | 154 | 136 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 193 | 281 | 298 | 578 | 105 | 252 | 27 | 10 | 266 | 66 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 52% | 196 | 173 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 196 | 283 | 306 | 589 | 110 | 254 | 27 | 10 | 270 | 69 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 219 | 194 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 59 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 198 | 285 | 311 | 596 | 112 | 256 | 27 | 10 | 273 | 70 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 225 | 199 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 60 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 200 | 286 | 313 | 599 | 113 | 258 | 27 | 10 | 274 | 71 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 54% | 226 | 200 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 61 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 198 | 284 | 309 | 593 | 111 | 257 | 27 | 10 | 271 | 70 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 58% | 235 | 208 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 64 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 196 | 282 | 303 | 584 | 107 | 255 | 27 | 10 | 268 | 67 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1342 | 1188 | 235 | 35 | 6 | 29 | 130 | 363 | 13 | 51 | 9 | 198 | 284 | 311 | 595 | 113 | 257 | 27 | 10 | 270 | 62 | -50 | +7 | -1 | +5 | +29 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 575 | 114 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 63 | 176 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 198 | 284 | 311 | 595 | 113 | 258 | 27 | 10 | 270 | 62 | -24 | +3 | -1 | +2 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4076 | 3607 | 700 | 97 | 21 | 66 | 385 | 1134 | 47 | 196 | 43 | 194 | 280 | 287 | 568 | 93 | 261 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -110 | +13 | -2 | +10 | +61 | -2.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 111 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 181 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 193 | 278 | 287 | 565 | 94 | 258 | 28 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -25 | +3 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 235 PAwOBA .364 → .293 (−71)K% 23.4% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.40% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×1.015 | 26.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×1.015 | 4.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×1.015 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.12% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .364 → .293; ISO .155 → .123; BABIP .364 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 94 PAwOBA .396 → .337 (−60)K% 21.3% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 10.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 25.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.40% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .396 → .337; ISO .197 → .166; BABIP .370 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 241 PAwOBA .277 → .214 (−63)K% 20.7% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.01% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 11.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.030 | 19.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.030 | 1.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.030 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷0.898 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .277 → .214; ISO .041 → .034; BABIP .253 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 366 PAwOBA .249 → .192 (−56)K% 28.4% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.42% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.92% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.11% | ÷1.096 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.045 | 20.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.045 | 2.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.23% | ÷0.962 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.045 | 2.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .249 → .192; ISO .070 → .057; BABIP .289 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Twins · 106 PAwOBA .337 → .256 (−81)K% 17.9% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.92% | ÷1.025 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.87% | ÷0.963 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 12.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.23% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×1.036 | ×1.022 | 24.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | ×1.036 | ×1.022 | 3.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.720 | ×1.036 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .337 → .256; ISO .036 → .027; BABIP .338 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Marlins · 217 PAwOBA .379 → .262 (−117)K% 12.4% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.44% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.30% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.97% | ÷1.010 | ×0.680 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | 22.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.991 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.016 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.30% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .379 → .262; ISO .066 → .039; BABIP .390 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).