Wilson Lopez — OGILVIE

Wilson Lopez P St. Lucie Mets

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 216 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%21.6%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	16	5	30	128	41	22	1	31%	1.9	21.8%	21.5%	0.3%	1.2%	4.85	4.61	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	16	5	30	128	41	22	1	31%	1.9	32.0%	17.2%	14.8%	0.8%	4.85	3.00	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	9	41	11	9	0	17%	1.4	26.8%	22.0%	4.9%	0.0%	3.12	3.61	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	9	41	11	9	0	17%	1.4	26.8%	22.0%	4.9%	0.0%	3.12	3.68	—
2024	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	22	0	23	128	19	27	0	0%	1.0	11.0%	24.9%	-13.9%	0.0%	7.15	5.33	—
2024	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	22	0	23	128	19	27	0	0%	1.0	11.0%	24.9%	-13.9%	0.0%	7.15	5.33	—
2024	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	22	0	23	128	19	27	0	0%	1.0	14.8%	21.1%	-6.2%	0.0%	7.15	5.00	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	19	90	17	19	1	0%	0.9	18.9%	21.1%	-2.2%	1.1%	4.74	4.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	19	90	17	19	1	0%	0.9	18.9%	21.1%	-2.2%	1.1%	4.74	4.79	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	19	90	17	19	1	0%	0.9	18.9%	21.1%	-2.2%	1.1%	4.74	4.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYM	13	0	14	59	13	8	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.1%	7.5%	3.0%	5.06	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	19	11	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.97	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	5	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	117	23	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		65	6	80	387	70	87	2	9%	1.2	18.1%	22.6%	-4.5%	0.6%	5.29	4.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	15	200	968	175	218	6	9%	1.2	18.1%	22.6%	-4.5%	0.6%	5.29	4.78	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilson Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	21.6%	14.1%	3.0%	—	4.97	22.0%	8.5%	20	-0.09	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	91
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	85
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	84
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	83
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	83
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	83
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	83
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	82
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	82
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	82