Tate Kuehner

P Nashville Sounds

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 196 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #826Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	19	104	3.19	3.32	26.3%	12.3%	—	K 20.5% · BB 13.9% · FIP 4.08
2025	24	MIX2 levels	23	23	110	2.77	3.59	25.2%	12.3%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.83
2026	25	AAAMIL	15	12	63	4.86	3.73	21.5%	11.4%	—	K 18.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.89
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIL	22	22	130	4.73	4.73	19.9%	12.7%	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBMIL	9	9	55	4.78	4.79	20.1%	12.3%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBMIL	13	13	78	4.80	4.84	20.1%	12.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$2M2032Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsMisael Siverio (age 26) · Darin Gorski (age 27) · Chipper Smith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%19.9%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	9	2	1	0	50%	1.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.63	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	2	1	3	9	2	1	0	50%	1.5	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.77	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.7%	3.19	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.7%	3.19	4.08	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	104	438	115	54	7	83%	4.5	26.3%	12.3%	13.9%	1.6%	3.19	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	1.5%	2.77	3.83	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	1.5%	2.77	3.83	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	464	117	57	9	100%	4.8	25.2%	12.3%	12.9%	1.9%	2.77	3.59	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	15	12	63	289	62	33	5	80%	4.2	18.4%	10.3%	8.2%	1.9%	4.86	3.89	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	15	12	63	289	62	33	5	80%	4.2	18.4%	10.3%	8.2%	1.9%	4.86	3.89	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	15	12	63	289	62	33	5	80%	4.2	21.5%	11.4%	10.0%	1.7%	4.86	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	22	22	130	549	109	70	13	100%	5.9	19.9%	12.7%	7.2%	2.4%	4.73	4.73	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	128	542	109	67	14	100%	6.1	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	2.5%	4.71	4.72	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	124	526	106	64	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.7%	4.73	4.77	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	502	100	61	14	100%	5.9	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	2.8%	4.81	4.87	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	112	472	93	58	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	3.0%	4.94	5.04	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	55	232	47	29	6	100%	6.1	20.1%	12.3%	7.8%	2.6%	4.78	4.79	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	78	329	66	40	9	100%	6.0	20.1%	12.1%	8.0%	2.8%	4.80	4.84	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	87	367	73	44	11	100%	6.2	20.0%	12.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.89	4.95	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	89	376	74	46	12	100%	5.9	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	3.2%	5.02	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	308	1301	260	159	38	100%	6.0	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.89	4.56	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	103	25	100%	6.0	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	2.9%	4.89	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		63	55	281	1200	245	156	20	87%	4.5	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	1.7%	3.37	3.93	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	855	175	111	14	87%	4.5	20.4%	13.0%	7.4%	1.7%	3.37	3.93	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tate Kuehner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	19.9%	12.7%	2.4%	—	4.78	20.1%	7.9%	372	+0.05	—	—	—
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	83
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	81
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	77
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	77
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	76
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	76
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	76
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	76
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	75
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	75
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	75
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	74
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	73
Tyson Guerrero L 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	18.8%	11.2%	2.9%	.268	5.58	23.9%	8.4%	19	+1.06	4.26	250	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	123	20.0%	12.3%	1.04	4.78
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Pat Combs ('89-'92, 2 WAR*)	1.5	102	18.2%*	11.0%*	0.87*	4.83*
Bill Foxen ('08-'11, 3 WAR*)	1.6	109	20.0%*	11.2%*	0.86*	4.12*