Teddy McGraw

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #317

Scout OFP49ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AModesto Nuts	4	4	9	4.15	2.64	20.0%	10.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 2.68
2025	23	MIX2 levels	14	12	28	3.18	2.08	27.5%	6.7%	—	K 22.3% · BB 5.5% · FIP 2.72
2026	24	MIX3 levels	32	2	40	3.63	3.78	18.6%	7.1%	—	K 15.6% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.90
2027PROJ	25	MLBSEA	57	0	60	4.70	4.70	18.8%	8.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSEA	25	0	26	4.60	4.57	20.4%	8.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSEA	35	0	37	4.58	4.58	20.6%	9.0%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff56Control45Command40FB velo53

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDerek Gordon (age 25) · Jarret Whorff (age 25) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%18.8%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	9	40	8	4	0	100%	2.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.68	—
2024	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	9	40	8	4	0	100%	2.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.68	—
2024	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	4	4	9	40	8	4	0	100%	2.2	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.15	2.64	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	28	120	33	8	1	86%	2.0	22.3%	5.5%	16.7%	1.5%	3.18	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	28	120	33	8	1	86%	2.0	22.3%	5.5%	16.7%	1.5%	3.18	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	28	120	33	8	1	86%	2.0	27.5%	6.7%	20.8%	0.8%	3.18	2.08	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	40	156	29	11	4	6%	1.2	15.6%	7.9%	7.6%	3.8%	3.63	4.90	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	2	40	156	29	11	4	6%	1.2	15.6%	7.9%	7.6%	3.8%	3.63	4.90	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	2	40	156	29	11	4	6%	1.2	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	2.6%	3.63	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SEA	57	0	60	253	48	23	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	3.1%	4.70	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SEA	57	0	60	251	51	22	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.57	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	59	247	51	22	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	SEA	25	0	26	110	22	10	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.57	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SEA	35	0	37	156	32	14	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	55	24	8	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.59	4.20	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	76	25	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.59	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		50	18	77	316	59	23	8	36%	1.5	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	2.4%	3.52	3.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	47	200	824	154	60	20	36%	1.5	18.7%	7.3%	11.4%	2.4%	3.52	3.79	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Teddy McGraw (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	18.8%	8.9%	3.1%	—	4.57	20.5%	11.5%	118	-0.13	—	—	—
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	84
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	83
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	82
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	82
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	82
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	82
Jack Dallas R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	18.6%	8.1%	1.8%	.286	4.38	20.4%	13.9%	114	+0.85	3.02	234	82
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	81
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	16.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.60	2.23	174	81
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	81
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	80
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	80
Brad Schreiber R 2016 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	16.5%	7.9%	2.5%	.304	4.23	17.3%	4.6%	57	+0.17	3.81	171	80
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	79
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	79
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	79
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.9%	8.9%	1.19	4.63
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*