Chase Hopewell prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Chase Hopewell P Clearwater Threshers

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 201 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%20.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	0	2	11	4	2	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	18.2%	18.2%	9.1%	13.50	7.32	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	0	2	11	4	2	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	18.2%	18.2%	9.1%	13.50	7.32	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	2	0	2	11	4	2	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	18.2%	18.2%	9.1%	13.50	8.60	—
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	0	30	137	28	15	5	0%	1.3	15.1%	12.9%	2.2%	4.3%	7.20	5.79	—
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	0	30	137	28	15	5	0%	1.3	15.1%	12.9%	2.2%	4.3%	7.20	5.79	—
2024	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	23	0	30	137	28	15	5	0%	1.3	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	3.6%	7.20	4.90	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	11.4%	9.1%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	26	0	27	114	24	13	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.79	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	11	0	12	51	11	6	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	10	5	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	87	17	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		25	0	32	148	25	20	7	0%	1.3	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	4.6%	7.59	5.91	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	925	154	123	43	0%	1.3	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	4.6%	7.59	5.91	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Hopewell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	20.5%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.79	21.0%	9.9%	27	-0.08	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	89
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	87
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	86
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	85
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	85
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	85
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	85
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	85
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	85
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	85
Fernando Salas R 2010 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	21.8%	9.8%	3.2%	.276	3.29	23.5%	16.8%	162	-0.98	2.60	539	85
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	85
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	84
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84