Bryan Broecker — OGILVIE

Bryan BroeckerC Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 200 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 150 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .295 / .269

PA150

HR1

K%29

BB%11

BABIP276

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	78	70	7	0	0	1	6	37	2	3	0	100	192	143	335	43	188	47	8	165	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	2 teams	—	78	66	10	0	0	2	10	25	2	3	0	152	282	242	524	91	205	32	13	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	2 teams	—	204	177	21	4	0	0	20	88	4	11	2	119	224	141	365	23	231	43	10	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	2 teams	—	204	162	29	5	0	0	35	60	4	11	2	179	338	210	548	31	279	29	17	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	229	195	33	6	0	2	30	76	2	1	0	169	286	231	517	62	263	33	13	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	229	182	38	8	0	2	43	59	2	1	0	209	366	286	651	77	295	26	19	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	A+	TB	—	27	23	5	0	0	1	3	13	1	0	0	217	333	348	681	130	444	48	11	267	63	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
YTD	24	A+	TB	—	27	22	6	0	0	1	4	10	1	0	0	273	407	409	816	136	455	37	15	375	145	+1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.3
ROS	24	A+	TB	0%	150	130	25	5	1	1	17	43	2	2	1	192	295	269	565	77	269	29	11	260	57	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB	TB	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						272	0	0	254	52	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	A+	TB	—	28	24	5	0	0	1	3	13	1	0	0	208	321	333	655	125	400	46	11	267	62	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
TOT	24	A+	TB	—	177	153	30	5	1	2	20	56	3	2	1	196	301	281	582	85	292	32	11	261	58	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TB	30%	234	203	40	8	1	3	26	66	3	4	1	197	297	291	588	94	272	28	11	271	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2028	26	MLB	TB	44%	311	270	55	11	1	5	35	86	3	5	1	204	302	307	609	104	274	28	11	278	71	-10	+1	+0	+6	+9	0.5
2029	27	MLB	TB	49%	351	305	62	12	1	6	39	96	4	6	1	203	302	308	610	105	275	27	11	280	73	-11	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.6
2030	28	MLB	TB	52%	376	327	66	13	1	6	42	103	4	6	1	202	300	303	603	101	275	27	11	280	73	-12	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.6
2027	25	MLB	TB	30%	71	62	12	2	0	1	8	20	1	1	0	194	296	274	570	81	275	28	11	264	60	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	26	MLB	TB	44%	138	121	25	5	1	2	15	38	1	2	1	207	299	314	613	107	277	28	11	271	65	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	27	MLB	TB	49%	172	149	32	6	1	3	19	47	2	3	1	215	312	329	641	114	278	27	11	273	67	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	28	MLB	TB	52%	194	168	35	7	1	3	22	53	2	3	1	208	307	315	623	107	278	27	11	273	67	-7	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	576	501	104	20	3	9	64	158	6	9	3	208	305	313	618	106	282	27	11	271	66	-22	+1	-0	+10	+16	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	117	23	3	10	72	178	7	10	3	207	304	312	615	104	282	27	11	271	66	-25	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	1933	1677	309	59	5	24	215	595	24	38	7	184	286	268	554	84	267	31	11	257	55	-98	+5	-1	+35	+55	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	104	20	2	8	72	200	8	13	2	184	286	270	555	85	267	31	11	257	55	-33	+2	-0	+12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	61	50	5	0	2	9	23	2	3	0	100	262	220	482	120	120	38	15	240	42	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2023	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	17	16	5	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	312	353	312	665		357	12	6	307	93	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2024	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	24	20	4	0	0	3	9	0	2	0	200	304	200	504		333	38	12	238	40	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	180	142	25	5	0	32	51	4	9	2	176	343	211	554	35	272	28	18	277	70	-6	+1	—	—	+5	-0.0
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	229	182	38	8	2	43	59	2	1	0	209	366	286	651	77	295	26	19	311	96	-1	+0	—	—	+6	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	575	9	9	203	298	304	+10	+8	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	10	11	203	298	304	+11.9	+9.2	1.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryan Broecker (OGILVIE)	24	30	30	40	60	196/301/281	85	292	2	2	32%	11%	58	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	40→37	38→40	42→45	45	190/273/269	79	271	6	8	30%	8%	52	-1.6	172/246/239	67	256	5	8	32%	7%	33	-2.9	143/216/191	47	222	3	6	34%	7%	5	-2.9
✕Adam Weisenburger 2013 · AA	24	42	36→40	43→30	45	197/271/262	65	269	3	5	26%	7%	49	-1.8	214/294/304	90	284	7	4	25%	8%	69	-0.4	213/299/301	87	276	6	2	23%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Stephen McGee 2015 · A	24	42	37→40	44→30	48	197/281/263	66	269	4	4	27%	9%	53	-1.5	202/281/291	89	289	7	4	30%	9%	61	-1.0	196/283/297	101	281	10	1	31%	10%	60	-0.4
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	43	36→30	46→40	53	198/292/268	70	276	3	7	27%	11%	59	-1.1	195/288/272	77	280	6	7	29%	11%	59	-1.1	161/272/222	60	234	6	4	30%	12%	39	-0.7
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	40	36→40	43→45	48	192/273/255	63	265	4	6	27%	9%	48	-1.9	220/287/306	86	274	6	8	20%	8%	66	-0.6	227/292/315	88	275	6	8	19%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Eric Yang 2022 · A	24	38	39→40	44→40	46	180/279/266	85	267	6	6	32%	9%	55	-1.4	189/266/268	79	289	6	6	34%	8%	48	-1.9	178/263/236	57	284	5	1	35%	8%	36	-0.6
✕Bryan Johns 2013 · A	24	44	35→30	43→45	48	205/281/267	62	284	2	7	27%	9%	54	-1.4	202/269/283	81	288	6	8	30%	7%	53	-1.5	150/216/208	58	216	7	5	32%	5%	10	-1.1
✕Chris Clare 2019 · A	24	42→45	37→30	46→40	49	198/278/268	70	258	4	5	24%	8%	53	-1.5	194/266/265	71	270	4	7	28%	7%	47	-1.9	146/222/176	30	221	0	3	31%	6%	3	-1.5
✕Gilbert Gomez 2015 · A	23	42→35	37→40	42→50	46	192/272/273	81	300	4	8	34%	10%	52	-1.6	182/255/263	81	285	5	9	34%	9%	42	-2.3	104/179/148	44	165	2	5	36%	8%	-20	-2.0
✕Caleb Hamilton 2019 · A	24	34	41→45	45	46	172/252/271	98	253	7	6	33%	9%	43	-2.2	186/255/287	101	275	10	8	33%	8%	48	-1.9	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕J.J. Franco 2017 · A	25	41	36→30	37→45	42	194/246/256	62	260	3	5	26%	6%	35	-2.8	212/283/267	55	298	2	6	26%	9%	54	-1.4	214/294/251	37	301	0	4	26%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Brian Serven 2019 · A	24	40	40→45	41→30	40	197/248/295	98	262	7	4	27%	5%	46	-2.0	185/239/301	116	243	13	4	29%	5%	45	-2.1	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	38→30	48→40	51	205/292/282	77	270	6	7	25%	10%	63	-0.8	226/312/290	64	313	3	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	233/324/284	51	328	2	2	26%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Chase Pinder 2021 · AA	25	40	40→45	40→45	44	192/269/276	84	279	8	5	32%	8%	51	-1.7	218/306/353	135	287	14	8	27%	10%	88	+0.9	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Jeremy Dowdy 2014 · A	24	43	37→40	45→30	41	206/252/277	72	284	4	5	28%	6%	43	-2.2	226/279/305	79	285	5	4	21%	7%	62	-0.9	229/288/312	82	278	6	1	19%	7%	63	-0.3
✕Andy Paz 2016 · A	23	38	37→40	48→45	42	185/247/254	69	274	5	6	33%	8%	36	-2.7	220/269/285	65	296	4	7	25%	6%	52	-1.6	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Travis Harrison 2017 · AA	24	42→48	38→40	42→45	44	198/275/277	79	287	5	9	30%	8%	54	-1.4	183/271/272	89	287	6	9	35%	9%	53	-1.5	130/244/210	80	215	5	5	37%	10%	25	-1.9
✕Jay Schuyler 2021 · A	24	43→40	38→40	43→45	43	206/262/282	76	269	6	6	25%	6%	49	-1.8	198/260/285	87	318	7	6	37%	6%	49	-1.8	136/208/187	50	246	4	0	43%	6%	1	-1.2
✕Richard Mercado 2007 · A	24	40	37→45	45→30	41	195/242/273	78	270	4	5	29%	6%	37	-2.6	211/263/296	85	276	6	4	24%	6%	53	-1.5	210/263/287	77	267	6	0	23%	6%	49	-0.7