Henson Leal

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 176 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	17	0	28	5.08	4.83	23.2%	11.2%	—	K 18.1% · BB 14.4% · FIP 6.51
2025	21	AKC	41	1	68	3.69	2.62	25.0%	7.1%	—	K 18.5% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.49
2026	22	AKC	30	0	57	4.89	2.96	22.3%	8.5%	—	K 16.5% · BB 10.0% · FIP 3.85
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	59	0	62	4.85	4.85	16.7%	10.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBKC	26	0	27	4.73	4.68	18.0%	9.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBKC	40	0	42	4.64	4.59	18.8%	9.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDylan Simmons (age 23) · Miguel Guerrero (age 23) · Jack Jasiak (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%16.7%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	12	0	23	103	18	10	1	0%	1.9	11.9%	12.1%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.91	4.48	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	12	0	23	103	18	10	1	0%	1.9	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	1.0%	3.91	3.40	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	10	5	24	112	29	9	3	50%	2.4	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	4.2%	4.12	5.16	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	10	5	24	112	29	9	3	50%	2.4	25.9%	8.0%	17.9%	2.7%	4.12	3.43	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	28	125	29	14	5	0%	1.7	18.1%	14.4%	3.7%	5.7%	5.08	6.51	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	28	125	29	14	5	0%	1.7	18.1%	14.4%	3.7%	5.7%	5.08	6.51	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	28	125	29	14	5	0%	1.7	23.2%	11.2%	12.0%	4.0%	5.08	4.83	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	41	1	68	296	74	21	4	2%	1.7	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.6%	3.69	3.49	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	41	1	68	296	74	21	4	2%	1.7	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.6%	3.69	3.49	—
2025	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	41	1	68	296	74	21	4	2%	1.7	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	1.4%	3.69	2.62	—
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	57	247	55	21	3	0%	1.9	16.5%	10.0%	6.4%	1.6%	4.89	3.85	—
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	57	247	55	21	3	0%	1.9	16.5%	10.0%	6.4%	1.6%	4.89	3.85	—
2026	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	57	247	55	21	3	0%	1.9	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	1.2%	4.89	2.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	59	0	62	262	44	26	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	10.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	266	48	25	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.6%	8.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.68	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	51	25	7	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.59	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	26	0	27	114	21	11	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	9.6%	8.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.68	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	40	0	42	177	33	17	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	293	54	28	8	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	2.8%	4.68	4.25	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	81	23	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	2.8%	4.68	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		110	6	201	883	150	91	22	5%	1.8	17.0%	10.3%	6.6%	2.5%	4.31	4.34	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	6	200	880	150	91	22	5%	1.8	17.0%	10.3%	6.6%	2.5%	4.31	4.34	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henson Leal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	16.7%	10.0%	2.8%	—	4.63	18.4%	8.9%	127	-0.22	—	—	—
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	92
Miguel Guerrero R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	18.1%	10.3%	3.1%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	171	90
Jack Jasiak R 2024 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	15.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.332	3.39	22.3%	15.0%	126	-1.20	3.24	262	90
Colby Blueberg R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.7%	11.0%	2.6%	.310	3.80	21.6%	10.6%	110	-0.62	2.36	229	90
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	90
Trey Cochran-Gill R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	15.3%	7.9%	2.4%	.294	4.61	14.5%	4.4%	112	+0.52	3.51	258	89
Matt Eckelman R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	23	SU	4.73	15.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	4.23	17.4%	5.7%	97	-0.50	4.07	386	89
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	89
Brian Glowicki R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	17.4%	8.8%	2.1%	.254	3.71	22.4%	14.4%	89	-0.20	2.31	189	89
Reece Karalus R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	14.0%	9.1%	3.4%	.303	4.73	15.4%	3.5%	55	-0.18	4.73	149	89
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	89
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	88
Alex Burnett R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	17.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.311	3.80	12.9%	5.3%	122	-0.57	3.68	170	88
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	88
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	88
Matt Anderson R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	23	SU	3.84	17.4%	7.5%	2.3%	.288	2.99	17.5%	10.7%	62	-0.85	2.99	129	88
Brady Choban R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	23	SU	4.49	16.1%	8.8%	3.0%	.262	4.02	13.3%	4.1%	80	-0.47	3.59	131	88
Tyler Carpenter R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	23	SU	4.03	15.2%	8.1%	2.1%	.351	4.22	12.9%	7.0%	189	+0.19	3.68	296	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	17.8%	9.6%	1.07	4.74
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Brad Clontz ('00)	1.4	56	17.4%	9.9%	0.97	4.34
Vinnie Chulk ('12)	1.4	57	16.0%	9.0%	0.98	4.51
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*