Jose Medina — OGILVIE

Jose MedinaC DSL Royals Ventura

Age 21 S/R 5'10" / 185 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .279 / .279

PA59

HR1

K%28

BB%8

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$15M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Stewart	—	125	108	24	2	1	0	14	37	3	0	1	222	328	259	587	37	338	30	11	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Stewart	—	125	99	29	3	1	0	22	25	3	0	1	293	432	343	775	51	392	20	18	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Royals Gold	—	164	140	23	2	1	0	17	52	2	0	2	164	264	193	457	29	250	32	10	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Royals Gold	—	164	131	30	4	1	0	26	36	2	0	2	229	365	275	640	46	303	22	16	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	102	86	10	1	0	0	14	23	1	0	0	116	248	128	375	12	159	23	14	191	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	102	76	12	1	0	0	24	16	1	0	0	158	366	171	537	13	200	16	24	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	KC	—	59	53	11	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	208	288	302	590	94	285	27	8	259	56	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	KC	34%	115	103	22	4	1	1	10	31	1	1	0	214	289	301	590	87	287	27	9	271	65	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	23	MLB	KC	48%	251	226	50	8	2	4	21	67	2	2	1	221	293	327	621	106	289	27	8	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2029	24	MLB	KC	53%	349	313	69	11	2	6	30	92	3	3	1	220	295	326	621	105	290	26	9	285	76	-9	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.7
2030	25	MLB	KC	55%	410	368	81	13	2	8	35	107	4	4	2	220	295	332	626	111	291	26	9	288	79	-10	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.9
2031	26	MLB	KC	56%	448	402	91	15	3	9	39	117	4	4	2	226	301	346	647	119	290	26	9	290	80	-10	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2032	27	MLB	KC	55%	466	417	94	15	3	10	41	122	5	5	2	225	302	348	650	122	290	26	9	290	80	-10	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.2
2033	28	MLB	KC	55%	474	424	95	15	3	10	42	125	5	4	2	224	301	344	646	120	290	26	9	289	79	-11	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.0
2034	29	MLB	KC	53%	472	422	93	15	3	9	42	125	5	4	2	220	299	334	633	114	289	26	9	287	78	-12	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.9
2035	30	MLB	KC	53%	466	418	91	14	3	9	41	125	4	4	1	218	294	330	624	112	288	27	9	284	76	-13	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.7
2036	31	MLB	KC	52%	441	395	84	13	2	8	39	120	4	3	1	213	290	316	606	104	285	27	9	280	73	-14	+0	-3	+8	+12	0.4
2037	32	MLB	KC	52%	413	369	78	12	2	7	37	114	4	2	1	211	290	312	602	100	282	28	9	275	69	-15	+0	-4	+7	+12	0.1
2038	33	MLB	KC	52%	373	334	69	10	2	6	33	105	3	2	1	207	284	302	586	96	278	28	9	268	64	-15	+0	-4	+7	+11	-0.2
2027	22	MLB	KC	34%	40	37	8	1	0	1	3	11	0	0	0	216	275	324	599	108	284	28	8	261	58	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	KC	48%	122	110	24	4	1	2	10	32	1	1	0	218	289	327	617	109	286	26	8	269	64	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	24	MLB	KC	53%	184	164	36	6	1	3	16	48	2	2	1	220	297	323	620	104	287	26	9	275	68	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	25	MLB	KC	55%	224	201	44	7	1	4	19	59	2	2	1	219	293	323	616	104	287	26	8	278	71	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2031	26	MLB	KC	56%	249	224	50	8	2	5	21	65	2	2	1	223	296	344	639	121	287	26	8	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2032	27	MLB	KC	55%	256	229	51	8	2	5	22	67	3	3	1	223	299	341	640	118	287	26	9	280	72	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB	KC	55%	259	231	51	8	2	5	23	68	3	2	1	221	300	338	637	117	286	26	9	279	71	-8	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.3
2034	29	MLB	KC	53%	252	226	49	8	1	5	22	67	2	2	1	217	292	327	619	111	286	27	9	277	70	-9	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.2
2035	30	MLB	KC	53%	245	219	47	7	1	5	22	66	2	2	1	215	292	324	616	110	284	27	9	274	68	-9	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2036	31	MLB	KC	52%	230	206	44	7	1	4	20	62	2	2	1	214	289	316	605	102	282	27	9	270	65	-9	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.0
2037	32	MLB	KC	52%	214	191	40	6	1	4	19	59	2	1	0	209	288	314	602	105	279	28	9	265	61	-9	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.1
2038	33	MLB	KC	52%	193	172	35	5	1	3	17	54	2	1	0	203	283	297	579	93	275	28	9	259	56	-10	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2468	2210	479	75	14	46	214	658	23	20	8	217	293	326	618	109	285	27	9	274	68	-91	+1	-8	+44	+70	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	127	20	4	12	56	173	6	5	2	218	293	328	622	110	287	27	9	274	68	-24	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	5128	4578	985	152	30	88	460	1378	51	39	19	215	294	319	613	104	286	27	9	279	72	-165	+0	-15	+92	+145	5.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	125	19	4	11	58	175	6	5	2	216	293	319	612	103	287	27	9	279	72	-21	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Stewart	—	125	99	29	3	1	22	25	3	1	293	432	343	775	51	392	20	18	365	138	+5	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2023	18	ROK	DSL Royals Gold	—	164	131	30	4	1	26	36	2	2	229	365	275	640	46	303	22	16	299	87	-2	-1	—	—	+5	0.1
2024	19	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	102	76	12	1	0	24	16	1	0	158	366	171	537	13	200	16	24	282	74	-3	+0	—	—	+3	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,527	47	21	220	293	330	+45	+28	4.3	4.0
	/162	664	12	6	220	293	330	+11.9	+7.4	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jose Medina (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	205/279/279	74	285	1	1	28%	8%	56	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	39	-2.5	203/261/310	107	295	9	6	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2019 · A	21	42→44	38→40	48→50	44	202/264/277	75	279	5	7	28%	7%	48	-1.9	182/258/257	75	275	5	14	32%	9%	42	-2.3	198/284/290	92	298	8	15	33%	10%	58	-0.7
✕Adrian Nieto 2011 · A	21	40→45	36→45	45→40	45	192/260/254	62	266	4	4	28%	8%	41	-2.3	205/267/305	100	294	9	4	31%	7%	57	-1.2	213/279/325	112	297	11	3	30%	8%	66	-0.3
✕Sandy León 2010 · A	21	39→49	35→45	45→30	41	188/242/243	55	269	3	5	30%	6%	30	-3.1	220/278/304	84	297	5	3	25%	7%	61	-1.0	235/296/340	106	300	10	0	24%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Marcus Littlewood 2013 · A	21	40	40→45	48→45	41	198/248/289	92	267	8	7	29%	6%	44	-2.1	199/266/305	106	272	10	5	28%	8%	57	-1.2	209/274/322	113	270	10	4	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Griff Erickson 2009 · A	21	42→50	38→45	42→40	44	202/268/282	80	277	6	4	28%	7%	52	-1.6	216/279/322	106	271	8	3	22%	8%	66	-0.6	213/289/342	129	264	14	2	24%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Alan Schoenberger 2010 · A	21	39	37→45	49→45	41	186/247/260	75	289	3	8	35%	7%	37	-2.7	200/248/293	93	296	7	6	33%	6%	46	-2.0	188/236/280	92	275	7	5	33%	5%	34	-1.4
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	39→48	36→50	46→55	42	189/249/245	56	269	4	12	30%	7%	33	-2.9	195/262/273	78	283	6	12	31%	8%	46	-2.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Shawn Zarraga 2010 · A	21	44	36→40	48→45	47	207/285/272	64	289	4	5	28%	8%	57	-1.2	237/301/331	94	305	7	8	23%	6%	79	+0.3	277/347/362	84	322	4	2	14%	8%	106	+0.8
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	48	-1.9	196/284/305	109	362	11	4	44%	10%	66	-0.6	177/274/284	107	334	12	2	45%	11%	53	-0.8
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	197/271/306	109	274	10	3	30%	9%	59	-1.1	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→50	49→55	47	199/276/274	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	53	-1.5	192/289/301	109	273	9	9	30%	12%	67	-0.5	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
●Max Moroff 2014 · A	21	41→51	40→50	43→50	46	199/263/286	87	265	8	8	27%	8%	51	-1.7	217/278/309	92	311	6	12	29%	8%	63	-0.9	235/313/371	135	309	14	10	27%	10%	91	+0.9
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	40	193/243/266	73	268	5	9	29%	6%	37	-2.7	229/276/310	81	309	7	10	26%	6%	62	-0.9	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→45	39→55	49→45	44	198/267/288	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	53	-1.5	217/280/375	158	316	19	7	36%	7%	82	+0.5	220/290/392	172	269	20	6	26%	8%	86	+0.6