Shane Telfer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Shane Telfer P Hillsboro Hops

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 125

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%20.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	7	3	10	59	14	7	0	43%	1.5	16.1%	14.8%	1.3%	0.0%	8.71	3.62	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	7	3	10	59	14	7	0	43%	1.5	16.1%	14.8%	1.3%	0.0%	8.71	3.62	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs Black	7	3	10	59	14	7	0	43%	1.5	23.7%	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	8.71	2.42	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	24	105	18	16	0	0%	2.0	11.9%	13.9%	-1.9%	0.0%	3.42	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	24	105	18	16	0	0%	2.0	11.9%	13.9%	-1.9%	0.0%	3.42	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	24	105	18	16	0	0%	2.0	17.1%	15.2%	1.9%	0.0%	3.42	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	ARI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.9%	4.81	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	20	0	21	90	19	10	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.75	4.73	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.75	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.75	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	87	22	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.75	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		19	3	34	164	22	23	0	16%	1.8	13.5%	14.2%	-0.8%	0.0%	5.03	3.77	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	18	200	965	130	137	0	16%	1.8	13.5%	14.2%	-0.8%	0.0%	5.03	3.77	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Telfer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	20.3%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.73	20.9%	9.7%	21	-0.08	—	—	—
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	82
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	80
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	80
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	80
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	80
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	79
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	79
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	78
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	78
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	78
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	78
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	78
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	78
Jason Kershner L 2002 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	16.8%	12.1%	2.8%	.233	4.04	14.5%	8.1%	76	-0.72	3.87	100	77
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	77
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	77
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	76
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	76
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	76
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	76