Hale Sims
P
Kannapolis Cannon Ballers
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 290 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.8%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 15 | 0 | 19 | 91 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 18.2% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 6.98 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 41 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 71 | 15 | 4 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.73 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 82 | 358 | 69 | 27 | 8 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 3.70 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 0 | 200 | 873 | 168 | 66 | 20 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hale Sims (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.31 | 22.4% | 13.7% | 134 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 92 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 90 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 88 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 88 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 87 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 87 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 87 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 87 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 86 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 86 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.14 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .255 | 4.04 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 66 | -0.10 | 4.04 | 214 | 84 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 84 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 84 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 83 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 83 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 83 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 83 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 83 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $3M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.