Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 19 | 91 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 6.98 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 19 | 91 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.3% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 1.1% | 6.98 | 2.63 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 41 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 71 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 41 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 71 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.6% | 5.6% | 21.0% | 1.5% | 3.73 | 2.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 56 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 54 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 0 | 109 | 461 | 92 | 37 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.16 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 68 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 0 | 82 | 358 | 69 | 27 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.00 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 0 | 200 | 873 | 169 | 65 | 25 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hale Sims (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.52 | 19.9% | 12.0% | 200 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .346 | 3.14 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.89 | 2.81 | 574 | 90 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 88 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 88 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 88 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.15 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.27 | 3.73 | 154 | 88 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.58 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .246 | 3.53 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.05 | 2.96 | 160 | 87 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.38 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 3.5% | .296 | 3.31 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 64 | -1.07 | 3.31 | 222 | 87 |
| Johnny Magliozzi R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.31 | 17.1% | 5.9% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 131 | 86 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.0% | .241 | 3.28 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.15 | 2.51 | 131 | 86 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 199 | 86 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.96 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.08 | 3.05 | 290 | 86 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 86 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 86 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 263 | 86 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.62 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 44 | +0.56 | 4.06 | 101 | 85 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 85 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | -0.08 | 3.48 | 101 | 85 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .298 | 3.09 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -1.00 | 1.97 | 682 | 85 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 85 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.31 | 19.1% | 8.7% | 1.3% | .279 | 4.18 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 92 | +0.87 | 2.31 | 225 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 1.20 | 4.46 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |