Alex Fernandes — OGILVIE

Alex FernandesOF Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 L/R A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .301 / .331

PA64

HR1

K%20

BB%8

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	23	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	31	25	9	1	1	0	4	1	0	5	0	360	448	480	928	120	346	3	13	388	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	31	26	9	1	1	0	3	1	0	5	0	346	414	462	875	115	310	3	10	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	31	26	9	1	1	0	3	1	0	5	0	346	414	462	875	115	333	3	10	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	31	25	9	1	1	0	4	1	0	5	0	360	448	480	928	120	346	3	13	388	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	31	28	9	1	1	0	3	1	0	5	0	321	414	429	842	107	310	3	10	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	31	28	9	1	1	0	3	1	0	5	0	321	414	429	842	107	310	3	10	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	0%	200	181	43	6	3	2	16	39	1	10	1	238	304	334	637	96	291	20	8	288	81	-5	+2	+0	-1	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	30%	111	100	24	3	2	1	9	22	1	5	1	239	305	338	643	100	291	20	8	290	82	-2	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	44%	220	199	48	7	3	3	18	44	1	11	1	239	306	342	648	103	291	20	8	292	84	-4	+2	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	49%	289	262	63	9	4	4	23	58	2	14	1	238	305	343	648	105	290	20	8	292	84	-6	+2	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	334	302	71	11	4	4	27	68	2	14	1	237	304	342	646	105	290	20	8	291	83	-7	+2	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	51%	355	321	75	12	4	4	29	74	2	13	1	235	302	339	641	104	288	21	8	289	82	-8	+2	-1	-2	+8	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	51%	368	334	77	12	4	4	29	78	2	11	1	232	298	331	629	99	287	21	8	284	78	-9	+2	-2	-2	+8	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	30%	34	31	8	1	1	0	3	7	0	2	0	245	311	351	662	105	300	21	9	297	82	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	44%	97	88	21	3	1	1	8	19	1	5	0	246	312	354	666	109	300	20	8	299	84	-2	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	49%	142	129	32	5	2	2	11	29	1	7	1	245	311	355	666	110	299	20	8	299	84	-3	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	172	155	37	6	2	2	14	35	1	7	1	243	310	353	663	110	299	20	8	298	83	-3	+1	-0	-1	+4	-0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	51%	183	165	40	7	2	2	15	38	1	7	1	241	308	350	658	109	297	21	8	296	82	-4	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	51%	189	171	41	7	2	2	15	40	1	6	1	238	304	342	646	104	295	21	8	291	78	-5	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	817	739	179	29	10	9	66	168	5	34	4	242	309	345	654	103	300	21	8	296	83	-18	+5	-2	-5	+18	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	142	23	8	7	53	134	4	27	3	241	309	344	652	102	300	21	8	296	83	-14	+4	-2	-4	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1772	1603	381	57	23	21	143	358	10	76	6	238	304	341	645	104	291	20	8	291	83	-38	+12	-4	-10	+38	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	140	21	8	8	52	131	4	28	2	238	304	342	646	104	291	20	8	291	83	-14	+4	-2	-4	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	2.8	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
/162	664	4	28	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	817	10	33	237	300	340	-5	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	8	27	-4.0	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Fernandes (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	236/301/331	95	291	1	3	20%	8%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josh Prince 2012 · A	24	46	37→40	55→60	44	221/269/292	72	277	5	31	22%	6%	59	-1.6	214/281/303	89	280	7	28	24%	8%	67	-1.1	213/287/292	79	281	7	28	25%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Shawon Dunston Jr. 2017 · A	24	44	38→40	57→55	39	211/255/304	92	284	4	18	26%	5%	57	-1.8	213/261/305	92	279	7	16	25%	5%	59	-1.6	205/245/281	76	255	6	22	22%	5%	45	-0.9
✕Tyler Callihan 2024 · AA	24	43	42→45	55	41	210/263/318	108	284	8	18	28%	6%	63	-1.3	219/281/337	118	311	12	21	31%	7%	75	-0.5	213/281/334	121	303	14	24	32%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2019 · A	23	43	42→45	59→65	38	200/267/304	104	330	9	30	39%	7%	62	-1.4	190/254/288	98	315	10	26	40%	7%	53	-2.1	220/296/327	107	310	12	41	30%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2011 · A	23	41→51	40→55	60	40	193/259/292	99	306	6	31	37%	8%	56	-1.9	221/276/342	121	319	12	33	33%	6%	74	-0.6	238/295/409	172	329	16	21	31%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Jeff Kobernus 2012 · A	24	49→59	38→40	57→65	37	237/263/315	79	304	5	29	24%	3%	61	-1.5	260/298/330	70	327	4	40	21%	5%	78	-0.3	274/318/336	62	341	3	48	19%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Willie Abreu 2019 · A	24	44→46	43→45	54→55	38	219/254/330	111	290	10	23	28%	4%	62	-1.4	207/255/306	99	297	9	15	32%	5%	57	-1.8	187/239/284	96	273	9	10	33%	5%	45	-1.0
✕Kevin Mattison 2012 · AAA	26	42→47	41→45	61→60	41	206/264/311	105	274	7	30	27%	6%	62	-1.4	189/246/298	109	292	9	24	36%	6%	53	-2.1	167/225/275	108	271	10	25	40%	6%	38	-2.1
✕John Ruettiger 2014 · AA	24	50→54	34→30	55	46	234/287/280	45	298	2	26	21%	7%	63	-1.4	232/275/285	53	294	2	22	20%	6%	59	-1.7	238/276/282	44	296	1	23	19%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Jeffrey Baez 2017 · A	23	42→46	41→50	56→60	40	208/252/307	99	273	9	27	27%	5%	57	-1.8	205/257/326	121	272	13	18	29%	6%	63	-1.3	195/248/328	132	258	16	15	30%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Juan Perez 2016 · AAA	24	43→50	40→45	53→55	40	208/247/305	97	265	7	18	24%	5%	54	-2.0	216/264/319	103	288	9	18	27%	6%	63	-1.3	226/270/343	117	292	13	24	27%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Reed Trimble 2024 · A	24	45	38→55	55→65	44	211/274/292	81	300	5	14	30%	8%	61	-1.5	214/279/360	146	278	15	26	27%	7%	80	-0.2	207/274/378	171	260	19	31	28%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Nick Podkul 2021 · A	24	44	38→50	53→50	48	207/283/291	84	275	5	14	25%	9%	65	-1.2	204/289/333	129	276	14	8	29%	9%	78	-0.3	202/300/344	142	280	17	3	32%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Chris Grayson 2013 · A	23	40→37	43→45	56→50	42	198/261/311	114	270	9	20	29%	7%	61	-1.5	195/259/291	96	265	7	15	28%	7%	57	-1.8	184/250/270	86	247	6	15	27%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Andy Vasquez 2012 · A	24	48→50	40→45	58→50	35	230/252/332	103	301	5	16	26%	2%	61	-1.5	226/249/330	104	309	9	15	29%	3%	60	-1.6	228/249/360	132	287	15	16	26%	3%	66	-0.4
✕Quentin Davis 2007 · A	24	47→48	37→40	54→55	40	223/257/298	75	278	4	20	21%	4%	55	-1.9	213/245/291	78	267	5	21	22%	4%	49	-2.4	209/238/282	74	257	6	25	21%	3%	43	-1.8
✕Tyler Holt 2013 · AA	24	47→57	35→40	55	46	219/282/279	60	297	1	20	25%	8%	61	-1.5	246/306/314	68	318	2	23	21%	8%	78	-0.3	263/336/322	59	341	1	27	21%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Rico Noel 2012 · A	23	43→53	37→30	62→65	44	202/270/275	73	263	4	31	24%	6%	57	-1.8	228/291/280	52	329	2	44	29%	7%	65	-1.2	228/293/276	47	319	1	49	26%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Joseph Daris 2016 · A	24	46	38→40	55→50	39	218/261/298	81	293	4	15	26%	5%	57	-1.8	203/252/286	83	297	5	11	31%	5%	52	-2.2	170/222/234	64	265	3	7	35%	5%	26	-1.8
✕Leury García 2015 · MLB	24	47→57	39→45	61→60	38	224/260/309	86	306	6	30	28%	4%	59	-1.6	262/300/363	101	335	8	28	23%	4%	87	+0.4	281/320/390	109	351	9	28	22%	4%	99	+0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps