Will Mabrey

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 26 LHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX3 levels	43	2	66	3.00	3.71	23.9%	11.2%	—	K 18.5% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.27
2024	23	AAARI	43	0	46	3.52	3.88	23.7%	11.1%	—	K 19.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.32
2026	25	MIX3 levels	22	2	26	3.81	3.22	22.0%	11.9%	—	K 19.1% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	11	0	12	4.83	4.83	20.6%	12.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBARI	9	0	9	4.80	4.82	20.9%	11.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHector Mercado (age 26) · Kevin Chapman (age 26) · Nick Hagadone (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.6%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	2	66	268	64	30	6	5%	1.5	18.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.1%	3.00	4.27	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	2	66	268	64	30	6	5%	1.5	23.9%	11.2%	12.7%	2.2%	3.00	3.71	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	46	207	49	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.4%	3.52	4.32	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	46	207	49	23	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.4%	3.52	4.32	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	43	0	46	207	49	23	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	2.4%	3.52	3.88	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	2	26	118	26	14	1	9%	1.2	19.1%	13.8%	5.4%	1.7%	3.81	4.14	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	2	26	118	26	14	1	9%	1.2	19.1%	13.8%	5.4%	1.7%	3.81	4.14	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	2	26	118	26	14	1	9%	1.2	22.0%	11.9%	10.2%	0.8%	3.81	3.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	11	0	12	51	10	6	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.0%	8.6%	2.9%	4.83	4.83	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	22	0	23	97	20	11	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.82	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	93	23	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.9%	4.80	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		108	4	138	593	112	75	12	4%	1.3	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	2.1%	3.33	4.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		157	6	200	859	162	109	18	4%	1.3	18.9%	12.7%	6.2%	2.1%	3.33	4.26	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Mabrey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.6%	12.0%	2.9%	—	4.82	20.9%	9.1%	23	-0.01	—	—	—
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	92
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	92
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	90
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	89
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	84
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	84
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	83
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.36	19.3%	8.8%	53	+0.09	3.45	165	83
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	83
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	82
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	82
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	81
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	81
Jeff Belge L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	19.4%	12.3%	2.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	175	81
Tom Windle L 2018 · 4.56 FIP	26	SU	4.56	19.0%	11.8%	2.9%	.269	4.37	17.2%	1.8%	74	-0.19	3.68	330	81
John Grabow L 2005 · 4.30 FIP	26	SU	4.30	18.9%	10.4%	2.7%	.265	4.01	19.9%	10.6%	197	-0.29	3.66	471	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	80
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	80
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	80