Erick Alvarez

2B Hickory Crawdads

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	A/ROK2 orgs	140	.193/.309/.269	0	2	19	—	.144/.230/.200
2024	19	ADown East Woo…	250	.238/.275/.328	1	4	40	—	.210/.239/.282
2025	20	ATEX	152	.222/.333/.278	0	4	40	—	.188/.265/.226
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBTEX	262	.201/.265/.268	1	4	52	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBTEX	32	.206/.271/.288	0	1	59	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A

Whiff%88

Z-Con%84

K%71

BB%68

Chase%41

Speed41

CompsFelix Familia (age 22) · Franklin Tineo (age 22) · Dereck Salom (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 62 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .263 / .266

PA62

HR0

K%25

BB%7

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	187	55	8	4	4	15	26	6	15	6	294	365	444	809	150	325	12	7	362	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	44	37	7	2	0	0	6	10	0	1	0	189	302	243	546	54	250	23	14	256	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	96	82	16	5	1	0	12	22	2	1	2	195	312	280	593	85	267	23	12	280	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	235	56	12	3	1	10	61	2	4	0	238	275	328	603	89	312	24	4	268	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	126	28	7	0	0	21	30	0	4	1	222	333	278	611	56	280	20	14	281	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	191	35	5	2	2	11	33	6	15	6	183	250	262	512	79	211	16	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	44	39	7	2	0	0	4	13	0	1	0	179	256	231	487	51	244	30	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	96	86	11	3	1	0	8	34	2	1	2	128	219	186	405	58	208	35	8	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	238	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	210	239	282	520	71	304	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	133	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	188	265	226	491	38	249	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	191	35	5	2	2	11	33	6	15	6	183	250	262	512	79	212	16	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	187	55	8	4	4	15	26	6	15	6	294	365	444	809	150	325	12	7	362	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	140	125	18	5	1	0	12	47	2	2	2	144	230	200	430	56	228	34	9	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	140	119	23	7	1	0	18	32	2	2	2	193	309	269	578	76	261	23	13	273	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	238	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	210	239	282	520	71	308	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	235	56	12	3	1	10	61	2	4	0	238	275	328	603	89	312	24	4	268	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	133	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	188	265	226	491	38	263	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	126	28	7	0	0	21	30	0	4	1	222	333	278	611	56	280	20	14	281	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	189	35	5	2	2	11	33	6	15	6	185	250	265	515	79	211	16	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	140	125	18	5	1	0	12	47	2	2	2	144	230	200	430	56	219	34	9	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	239	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	209	239	280	519	71	304	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	137	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	182	265	219	484	36	249	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	239	50	10	2	1	7	81	2	4	0	209	239	280	519	71	304	32	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	137	25	5	0	0	14	42	0	4	1	182	265	219	484	36	249	28	9	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	262	239	49	10	2	1	19	66	2	4	1	201	265	268	533	68	269	25	7	245	52	-15	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	94	86	19	4	1	1	7	23	1	2	0	207	271	287	559	81	271	24	7	255	59	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	32	30	5	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	206	271	288	559	81	270	25	6	255	59	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	32	30	5	1	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	167	219	200	419	33	227	25	6	255	39	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	609	101	20	0	0	41	162	0	20	0	166	218	199	417	33	226	25	6	255	39	-32	+4	+0	+2	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	906	831	157	31	6	4	55	242	11	28	9	189	249	255	504	66	258	27	6	226	39	-8	+1	+0	+1	+3	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	112	22	4	3	39	174	8	20	6	188	247	253	501	65	256	27	6	226	39	-34	+2	+0	+2	+14	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AHickory Crawdads · 152 PAwOBA .282 → .228 (−54)K% 19.7% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.74%	÷0.981	×1.360	—	—	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.82%	÷1.051	×0.690	—	×1.030	9.34%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.990	×1.030	20.47%
Doubles /BIP	7.29%	÷1.123	×0.830	×0.990	×1.030	5.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.910	×0.990	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.037	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .282 → .228; ISO .056 → .042; BABIP .280 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 250 PAwOBA .264 → .228 (−36)K% 24.4% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.40%	÷1.022	×1.360	—	—	32.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.00%	÷0.983	×0.690	—	×1.045	2.93%
HBP% /PA	0.80%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.65%
Singles /BIP	22.99%	÷0.973	×0.920	×1.020	×1.045	23.16%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.978	×0.830	×1.020	×1.045	6.24%
Triples /BIP	1.72%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.020	×1.045	1.45%
Home runs /BIP	0.57%	÷1.008	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.48%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .264 → .228; ISO .089 → .072; BABIP .312 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rangers · 96 PAwOBA .274 → .184 (−90)K% 22.9% → 35.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.92%	÷0.940	×1.440	—	—	35.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷0.973	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.14%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.53%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.003	×0.820	×0.990	×1.022	13.79%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.032	×0.720	×0.990	×1.022	5.89%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.114	×0.720	×0.990	×1.022	1.09%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.124	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 123, K 88, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .274 → .184; ISO .085 → .052; BABIP .267 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 44 PAwOBA .257 → .224 (−33)K% 22.7% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷1.022	×1.360	—	—	30.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.64%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.52%	÷0.979	×0.920	—	×1.050	18.27%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷0.914	×0.830	—	×1.050	7.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.124	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.082	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 83, 3B 125, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .257 → .224; ISO .054 → .050; BABIP .250 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL TEX Blue · 208 PAwOBA .352 → .224 (−128)K% 12.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	15.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.21%	÷0.998	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.17%
HBP% /PA	2.88%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	2.06%
Singles /BIP	24.22%	÷0.982	×0.680	×0.961	×1.022	16.49%
Doubles /BIP	4.97%	÷1.007	×0.600	×0.961	×1.022	2.91%
Triples /BIP	2.48%	÷1.006	×0.600	×0.961	×1.022	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	2.48%	÷1.148	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.04%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .352 → .224; ISO .150 → .077; BABIP .325 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Alvarez (OGILVIE)	22	35	20	45	55	199/263/266	67	269	0	1	25%	7%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Felix Familia 2021 · A	22	40	35→30	48→45	45	190/263/251	61	263	3	7	27%	8%	49	-2.4	205/257/265	60	293	4	4	29%	5%	49	-2.4	195/246/237	42	274	3	1	29%	5%	35	-1.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	34	36→40	46→50	48	162/233/224	62	208	4	10	23%	8%	32	-3.7	181/263/263	82	249	5	10	27%	9%	52	-2.2	164/271/256	91	205	6	12	21%	11%	53	-0.9
✕Dereck Salom 2023 · A	22	42	35→30	43→40	45	199/257/256	57	261	2	6	24%	6%	47	-2.6	196/277/252	56	263	3	5	24%	9%	55	-2.0	183/277/227	44	246	3	4	24%	11%	49	-1.4
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	37	37→30	46→55	50	177/256/249	71	223	4	9	21%	8%	46	-2.6	192/277/264	72	230	5	17	18%	10%	57	-1.8	176/273/236	60	201	6	25	15%	11%	49	-0.8
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Nic Kent 2022 · A	22	43→45	36→40	47→50	41	202/261/271	69	278	3	9	27%	6%	52	-2.2	202/253/279	77	277	6	11	28%	5%	51	-2.3	212/272/301	89	289	8	9	28%	6%	60	-1.0
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→30	46→45	41	195/255/280	85	272	5	6	29%	6%	52	-2.2	197/255/281	84	276	6	9	29%	6%	52	-2.2	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Luis Pintor 2017 · A	22	43	35→30	50→45	44	204/262/264	60	266	2	10	23%	6%	51	-2.3	192/258/252	60	248	3	6	22%	6%	47	-2.6	177/247/227	50	227	3	5	22%	6%	35	-1.8
✕Alexis Wilson 2019 · A	22	40	38→40	48→30	45	194/260/273	78	263	5	4	27%	8%	53	-2.1	219/269/310	91	281	9	5	24%	6%	63	-1.3	222/267/302	80	270	10	1	21%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Rehiner Cordova 2016 · A	22	44	34→30	51→40	42	208/266/256	47	291	2	7	28%	6%	50	-2.3	195/264/252	57	258	4	7	24%	8%	49	-2.4	151/236/158	7	192	0	2	19%	9%	15	-1.3
✕Cristo Arnal 2008 · A	22	42	36→30	48→50	45	197/252/259	61	249	3	12	22%	6%	45	-2.7	224/270/279	55	272	3	15	18%	5%	56	-1.9	232/278/269	37	276	2	19	16%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Melvin Santana 2014 · A	22	39	36→40	50	46	182/239/254	73	226	2	11	20%	6%	39	-3.1	197/245/272	75	270	3	11	26%	5%	45	-2.7	189/224/255	66	253	0	19	24%	4%	32	-0.7
✕Alex Gonzalez 2013 · A	22	42	34→30	48→60	51	194/275/247	53	247	1	12	21%	9%	53	-2.1	199/258/263	64	257	3	10	22%	6%	49	-2.4	178/220/221	43	220	3	13	20%	4%	21	-1.2
✕Daurys Mercedes 2012 · A	22	38	35→40	46→45	42	179/250/239	60	285	2	7	36%	8%	40	-3.0	178/242/245	67	330	3	6	43%	7%	39	-3.1	127/201/181	54	254	2	4	47%	7%	7	-1.7
✕Eduardo Torrealba 2021 · A	22	44	36→30	43→50	40	210/265/276	66	292	4	6	28%	6%	55	-2.0	219/273/295	76	269	6	14	20%	6%	62	-1.4	210/266/272	62	255	5	17	19%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Kenneth Betancourt 2022 · A	22	40→50	35→30	44→50	38	193/232/253	60	274	3	8	30%	5%	36	-3.4	236/279/307	71	306	4	9	23%	5%	66	-1.1	248/290/313	65	315	4	10	21%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Carlos Rojas 2024 · A	22	42	36→30	49→30	55	195/287/264	69	237	3	5	18%	10%	62	-1.4	216/279/279	63	274	3	3	21%	7%	61	-1.5	218/278/268	51	272	3	0	20%	6%	56	-0.8
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→40	45→30	36	195/236/271	76	279	4	8	31%	4%	42	-2.9	220/267/316	96	272	9	6	22%	6%	64	-1.3	226/273/320	94	265	9	4	18%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Leo Rodriguez 2014 · A	22	46	34→30	45	45	215/271/261	46	269	2	6	20%	6%	53	-2.1	230/273/287	57	285	3	7	19%	5%	59	-1.6	256/282/278	23	300	0	6	14%	3%	55	-0.6