Erick Alvarez — OGILVIE

Erick Alvarez2B Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 144 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .256 / .265

PA12

HR0

K%24

BB%6

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	187	55	8	4	4	15	26	6	15	6	294	365	444	809	150	325	12	7	362	131	+8	+1	—	—	+5	1.3
2023	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	44	37	7	2	0	0	6	10	0	1	0	189	302	243	546	54	250	23	14	256	60	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	96	82	16	5	1	0	12	22	2	1	2	195	312	280	593	85	267	23	12	280	76	-3	-1	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	235	56	12	3	1	10	61	2	4	0	238	275	328	603	89	312	24	4	268	67	-10	+1	—	—	+5	-0.4
2025	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	126	28	7	0	0	21	30	0	4	1	222	333	278	611	56	280	20	14	281	76	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	193	41	5	3	3	9	39	6	15	6	212	269	316	585	104	250	19	4	251	56	-11	+1	—	—	+5	-0.6
2023	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	44	39	7	2	0	0	4	14	0	1	0	179	256	231	487	51	236	32	9	209	28	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	—	96	86	11	3	1	0	8	34	2	1	2	128	219	186	405	58	203	35	8	181	9	-10	-1	—	—	+2	-0.9
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	238	48	9	2	1	6	85	2	4	0	202	227	269	496	67	294	34	2	216	32	-20	+1	—	—	+5	-1.4
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	134	24	5	0	0	13	43	0	4	1	179	252	216	468	37	246	28	9	218	34	-12	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	193	41	5	3	3	9	39	6	15	6	212	269	316	585	104	252	19	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	187	55	8	4	4	15	26	6	15	6	294	365	444	809	150	325	12	7	362	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	140	125	18	5	1	0	12	48	2	2	2	144	230	200	430	56	231	34	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	140	119	23	7	1	0	18	32	2	2	2	193	309	269	578	76	261	23	13	273	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	239	48	9	2	1	6	85	2	4	0	201	227	268	495	67	301	34	2	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	235	56	12	3	1	10	61	2	4	0	238	275	328	603	89	312	24	4	268	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	134	24	5	0	0	13	43	0	4	1	179	252	216	468	37	253	28	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	126	28	7	0	0	21	30	0	4	1	222	333	278	611	56	280	20	14	281	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Blue	—	208	191	41	5	3	3	9	39	6	15	6	215	269	319	589	105	250	19	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	140	125	18	5	1	0	12	48	2	2	2	144	230	200	430	56	213	34	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	240	48	9	2	1	6	85	2	4	0	200	227	267	493	67	294	34	2	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	138	24	5	0	0	13	43	0	4	1	174	252	210	462	36	246	28	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	140	125	18	5	1	0	12	48	2	2	2	144	230	200	430	56	213	34	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	250	240	48	9	2	1	6	85	2	4	0	200	227	267	493	67	294	34	2	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	152	138	24	5	0	0	13	43	0	4	1	174	252	210	462	36	246	28	9	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		269	25	8	240	49	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	233	214	45	9	1	2	15	55	2	4	1	210	268	290	558	79	272	24	6	258	61	-11	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	338	309	68	14	2	5	23	78	3	6	1	220	281	327	607	107	274	23	7	269	68	-13	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	53%	410	376	84	17	2	7	28	94	3	7	2	223	283	335	618	112	276	23	7	276	73	-13	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	451	412	91	18	2	8	32	103	4	7	2	221	283	333	616	112	277	23	7	280	76	-13	+1	+0	+2	+10	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	56%	475	434	97	19	2	9	34	109	4	8	2	224	286	339	625	115	277	23	7	281	77	-13	+1	+0	+2	+10	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	485	443	99	20	2	9	35	111	4	8	2	223	286	339	625	115	276	23	7	282	77	-13	+1	+0	+2	+11	-0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	487	444	99	20	2	9	36	112	4	8	2	223	287	338	625	115	276	23	7	281	76	-14	+1	-1	+2	+11	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	TEX	58%	481	439	96	19	2	8	35	112	4	7	2	219	282	326	608	107	275	23	7	279	75	-14	+1	-1	+2	+10	-0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	TEX	55%	473	431	94	19	2	8	35	111	4	7	2	218	283	327	610	109	274	23	7	276	73	-15	+1	-2	+2	+10	-0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	80	74	15	3	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	203	263	284	546	81	274	24	6	254	61	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	164	151	33	7	1	2	11	38	1	3	1	219	276	318	594	99	276	23	7	266	68	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	53%	216	197	45	9	1	4	15	50	2	4	1	228	290	345	635	117	278	23	7	273	73	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	247	226	51	10	1	5	17	56	2	4	1	226	286	345	631	119	279	23	7	277	76	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	56%	264	241	54	11	1	5	19	60	2	4	1	224	286	340	627	116	279	23	7	279	77	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	267	244	55	11	1	5	19	61	2	4	1	225	287	340	627	115	278	23	7	279	77	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	266	243	54	11	1	5	19	61	2	4	1	222	284	337	622	115	278	23	7	278	76	-8	+0	-0	+1	+6	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	TEX	58%	279	255	56	11	1	5	20	65	2	4	1	220	282	329	611	110	277	23	7	276	75	-8	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	TEX	55%	261	238	52	10	1	5	19	61	2	4	1	218	282	332	614	113	276	23	7	273	73	-8	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2044	1869	415	83	8	37	144	471	16	32	8	222	283	334	618	112	276	23	7	275	67	-63	+3	-2	+7	+44	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	132	26	3	12	46	150	5	10	3	222	284	337	620	114	276	23	7	275	67	-20	+1	-1	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4595	4204	906	179	23	69	314	1103	42	87	25	216	277	318	595	103	274	24	7	268	67	-121	+6	-4	+14	+83	-2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	128	25	3	10	44	156	6	12	4	215	276	318	594	103	273	24	7	268	67	-20	+1	-1	+2	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.3	2,188	35	35	221	280	329	+8	+6	0.1	0.4
/162	664	11	10	+2.4	+1.8	0.0	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Alvarez (OGILVIE)	21	35	20	45	55	201/256/265	63	269	0	2	24%	6%	49	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	42	-2.9	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	61	-1.5	240/292/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Omar Guerra 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	48→50	45	193/274/246	53	257	2	9	24%	7%	53	-2.1	220/315/279	59	272	2	11	19%	6%	76	-0.4	229/342/268	39	277	0	15	15%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Joseph 2018 · A	21	44	34→30	46→50	41	205/238/250	45	256	2	9	20%	4%	37	-3.3	206/243/276	70	259	4	10	21%	4%	45	-2.7	206/223/283	77	240	4	15	16%	1%	35	-0.7
✕Anneury Peguero 2007 · A	20	43	35→30	44→50	48	201/266/259	58	253	2	7	20%	7%	51	-2.2	211/289/268	57	271	3	12	21%	9%	62	-1.4	205/293/243	38	260	2	16	20%	10%	55	-0.6
✕Abel Nieves 2007 · A	21	44	35→40	47→45	46	208/267/270	62	270	2	6	23%	7%	54	-2.0	229/295/306	77	317	4	5	26%	9%	72	-0.7	237/311/319	81	332	4	4	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Gregori Gonzalez 2010 · A	21	39	35→30	46→55	38	188/230/246	58	269	3	14	30%	5%	34	-3.5	217/258/295	78	269	3	13	20%	4%	55	-1.9	230/267/317	87	275	3	15	17%	3%	63	-0.4
✕Hector Martinez 2022 · A	21	41	35→30	46→50	44	193/261/253	60	271	3	7	28%	7%	48	-2.5	197/252/270	73	299	4	5	33%	6%	48	-2.5	154/203/214	60	235	4	0	34%	6%	15	-0.9
✕Bill Pujols 2015 · A	21	43	37→40	43→50	46	204/263/281	76	253	4	7	20%	6%	55	-2.0	197/257/271	74	281	3	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	146/212/197	51	225	0	5	32%	6%	15	-0.9
✕Alfredo González 2013 · A	21	39	35→30	51→45	39	186/228/249	63	238	2	10	22%	4%	34	-3.5	215/275/289	74	289	5	9	25%	7%	61	-1.5	232/294/283	50	313	3	6	25%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	53	-2.1	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Luis De La Cruz 2010 · A	21	41	38→30	47→30	40	197/233/275	77	246	5	6	22%	4%	41	-3.0	220/253/311	91	276	5	6	21%	4%	57	-1.8	245/267/324	79	295	3	3	18%	3%	62	-0.4
✕Frank Hernandez 2023 · A	21	43	35→30	47→50	44	203/272/257	54	274	2	10	25%	7%	53	-2.1	205/260/264	59	299	3	8	30%	6%	50	-2.3	206/256/217	11	328	0	9	35%	5%	34	-0.9
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	44	178/253/238	60	259	4	7	31%	8%	42	-2.9	198/256/251	53	276	2	4	27%	7%	45	-2.7	190/246/233	43	263	1	2	26%	7%	36	-1.6
✕Claudio Finol 2021 · A	21	42	37→40	43→45	40	202/249/275	72	266	4	5	25%	5%	47	-2.5	192/249/275	83	270	6	8	29%	6%	49	-2.4	178/246/255	77	255	7	10	31%	7%	42	-0.6
✕Dixon Mavares 2007 · A	21	46	35→30	51→50	44	215/285/275	60	277	1	11	22%	6%	62	-1.4	220/294/288	68	262	3	10	16%	8%	69	-0.9	223/303/283	60	253	3	11	12%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Raymundo Moreno 2018 · A	20	43	35→30	46→55	45	202/270/262	60	259	2	10	22%	6%	54	-2.0	202/271/276	74	278	3	8	26%	7%	57	-1.8	149/235/224	74	213	4	16	29%	7%	32	-0.6
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/270	82	260	6	7	29%	6%	49	-2.4	199/275/282	83	287	6	6	30%	8%	61	-1.5	182/254/249	67	248	6	11	27%	8%	43	-0.7
✕Terry Serrano 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	46→55	49	191/267/245	53	257	2	13	25%	9%	49	-2.4	202/275/269	67	295	3	16	29%	9%	57	-1.8	195/275/262	67	298	2	22	32%	10%	52	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps