Yu-Min Lin

P Reno Aces

Age 24 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#444ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	21	21	104	4.05	4.00	22.3%	8.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.54
2025	22	AAAARI	23	23	102	6.64	5.50	17.7%	12.5%	—	K 15.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.74
2026	23	AAAARI	28	26	129	5.16	4.08	16.9%	10.3%	—	K 14.6% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.20
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	3	3	15	5.15	5.15	14.7%	10.3%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBARI	12	12	72	4.87	4.80	17.0%	9.8%	0.4
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBARI	17	17	103	4.73	4.66	18.3%	9.7%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 6.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsBrandon Schaeffer (age 23) · Jeriome Robertson (age 26) · Reid Love (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%14.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	226	91	22	2	100%	4.0	28.7%	11.7%	17.0%	1.1%	2.72	2.75	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	56	226	91	22	2	100%	4.0	40.3%	9.7%	30.5%	0.9%	2.72	1.50	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	496	140	48	10	100%	5.1	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	1.8%	3.86	3.60	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	121	496	140	48	10	100%	5.1	28.2%	9.7%	18.5%	2.0%	3.86	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	452	101	38	14	100%	5.0	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	3.3%	4.05	4.54	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	452	101	38	14	100%	5.0	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	3.3%	4.05	4.54	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	104	452	101	38	14	100%	5.0	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.1%	4.05	4.00	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	23	23	102	481	85	60	18	100%	4.4	15.2%	11.2%	4.0%	4.6%	6.64	5.74	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	23	23	102	481	85	60	18	100%	4.4	15.2%	11.2%	4.0%	4.6%	6.64	5.74	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	23	23	102	481	85	60	18	100%	4.4	17.7%	12.5%	5.2%	3.7%	6.64	5.50	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	28	26	129	573	97	59	11	93%	4.6	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	2.1%	5.16	4.20	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	28	26	129	573	97	59	11	93%	4.6	14.6%	9.3%	5.3%	2.1%	5.16	4.20	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	28	26	129	573	97	59	11	93%	4.6	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	1.9%	5.16	4.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	3	3	15	63	9	7	2	100%	5.0	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	2.9%	5.15	5.15	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	149	629	107	62	18	100%	6.0	17.0%	9.8%	7.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.89	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	149	629	115	61	18	100%	6.0	18.3%	9.7%	8.7%	2.9%	4.82	4.75	+1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	114	480	89	46	14	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	3.0%	4.78	4.76	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	18	18	111	467	86	45	14	100%	6.1	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.81	4.84	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	103	433	79	43	14	100%	6.0	18.2%	10.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.97	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	16	16	93	394	70	40	13	100%	5.8	17.9%	10.2%	7.6%	3.4%	5.05	5.14	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	72	304	52	30	8	100%	6.0	17.0%	9.8%	7.1%	2.7%	4.87	4.80	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	103	435	80	42	12	100%	6.1	18.3%	9.7%	8.7%	2.8%	4.73	4.66	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	90	380	70	37	11	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.6%	8.9%	2.8%	4.69	4.67	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	16	16	94	397	73	39	11	100%	5.9	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.75	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	91	384	70	38	12	100%	6.1	18.2%	10.0%	8.3%	3.0%	4.80	4.87	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	84	355	63	36	11	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.2%	7.6%	3.2%	4.95	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	534	2256	409	222	66	100%	6.0	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.9%	4.79	4.41	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	153	83	25	100%	6.0	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.9%	4.79	4.41	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		110	108	513	2228	411	227	60	98%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	2.7%	4.65	4.32	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	869	160	89	24	98%	4.7	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	2.7%	4.65	4.32	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 129 IPFIP 4.03 → 4.20 (+0.18)K% 16.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.93%	—	×0.860	14.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.30%	—	×0.900	9.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.03 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 102 IPFIP 5.24 → 5.74 (+0.50)K% 17.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.67%	—	×0.860	15.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.47%	—	×0.900	11.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷0.904	×1.100	4.55%

Result: FIP 5.24 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 95 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.54 (+0.41)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.810	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.97%	—	×1.100	8.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.229	×1.200	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 5 IPFIP 4.11 → 4.04 (−0.07)K% 9.5% → 8.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.52%	—	×0.860	8.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.124	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.11 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 61 IPFIP 3.77 → 3.90 (+0.13)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.71%	—	×0.810	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.04%	—	×1.100	11.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.637	×1.200	1.98%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 60 IPFIP 2.26 → 3.28 (+1.02)K% 32.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.07%	—	×0.770	24.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.28%	—	×1.150	10.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.952	×1.250	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 33 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.54 (+1.22)K% 35.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.71%	—	×0.740	26.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.180	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.062	×1.300	1.75%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 23 IPFIP -0.04 → 1.47 (+1.51)K% 47.7% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.67%	—	×0.680	32.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.250	8.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.119	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP -0.04 → 1.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yu-Min Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.80	17.9%	8.2%	412	-0.35	—	—	—
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	87
Jeriome Robertson L 2003 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	13.9%	7.9%	3.2%	.295	7.27	8.0%	-1.3%	14	+2.57	4.70	175	86
Reid Love L 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	13.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.293	3.74	15.2%	9.0%	140	-0.55	3.66	280	85
Matt Chico L 2007 · 5.15 FIP	24	SP	5.15	12.6%	9.5%	3.5%	.282	5.34	14.2%	6.9%	48	+0.19	5.15	215	85
Jared Shuster L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP	5.01	14.5%	11.3%	3.1%	.306	4.63	17.0%	8.9%	200	-0.38	3.90	544	84
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	84
Jonathan Dziedzic L 2015 · 4.01 FIP	24	SP	4.01	13.1%	6.7%	2.1%	.293	4.27	15.3%	6.1%	325	+0.26	3.88	522	83
Logan Boyd L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	14.9%	10.2%	1.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	276	83
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	82
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	82
Mike Belfiore L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	26	SP	4.63	12.0%	9.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	135	82
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	82
Damian Moss L 2002 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	14.9%	11.3%	2.7%	.227	5.40	10.4%	-1.0%	166	+0.65	4.75	345	82
Sean West L 2009 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	15.0%	9.4%	2.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	103	82
Caleb Smith L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	24	SP	3.97	13.5%	10.1%	1.3%	.275	3.51	22.9%	14.4%	258	-0.46	3.31	784	81
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	81
Jason Wheeler L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP	4.69	12.5%	6.9%	3.2%	.315	3.90	16.5%	10.6%	263	-0.79	3.63	401	81
Drew Dowd L 2024 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.1%	11.7%	2.1%	.280	3.13	24.9%	16.0%	55	-1.23	3.13	166	81
Matthew Crownover L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	24	SP-	4.67	12.6%	8.5%	2.8%	.283	4.48	12.1%	4.6%	118	-0.19	4.35	377	81
Kyle Freeland L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	15.6%	8.6%	2.2%	.301	4.08	18.3%	10.2%	407	+0.00	3.37	1,627	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	124	17.4%	9.9%	1.17	4.93
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
Steve McCatty ('77-'85, 6 WAR*)	5.9	149	16.4%*	10.1%*	1.20*	4.49*
Roger Pavlik ('98)	3.7	124	16.2%	10.8%	1.03	4.58
William VanLandingham ('94-'97, 2 WAR*)	2.4	119	16.2%*	10.3%*	0.97*	4.76*
Dave Lemanczyk ('73-'80, 2 WAR*)	4.6	130	16.9%*	9.0%*	1.15*	4.83*
Jason Jennings ('09)	5.6	125	14.9%	10.0%	1.09	4.95