Yu-Min Lin
P
Reno Aces
Age 23
LHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130139vR 149
ERA5.78
FIP5.78
K%16.2%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%3.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 56 | 226 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 100% | 4.0 | 28.7% | 11.7% | 17.0% | 1.0% | 2.72 | 2.72 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 56 | 226 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 100% | 4.0 | 40.3% | 9.7% | 30.5% | 0.9% | 2.72 | 1.50 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 121 | 496 | 140 | 48 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 1.6% | 3.86 | 3.47 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 121 | 496 | 140 | 48 | 10 | 100% | 5.1 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 18.5% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 3.05 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 452 | 101 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 104 | 452 | 101 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | 23 | 23 | 102 | 481 | 85 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 4.4 | 15.6% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 6.64 | 6.24 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | 23 | 23 | 102 | 481 | 85 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.7% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.64 | 5.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Reno Aces | 18 | 17 | 76 | 354 | 52 | 39 | 8 | 94% | 4.2 | 12.9% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 6.04 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.78 | 5.78 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.78 | 5.78 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 141 | 628 | 96 | 73 | 18 | — | — | 15.3% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.92 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 6 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.78 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 161 | 679 | 124 | 77 | 25 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 5.40 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 30 | 30 | 175 | 738 | 144 | 79 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.17 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 149 | 78 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.07 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 147 | 76 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.09 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 60 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 121 | 511 | 100 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 121 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 127 | 66 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 84 | 84 | 495 | 2092 | 412 | 224 | 76 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 4.78 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 90 | 31 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 99 | 460 | 2009 | 375 | 224 | 56 | 99% | 4.6 | 18.7% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.46 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 43 | 200 | 874 | 163 | 97 | 24 | 99% | 4.6 | 18.7% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yu-Min Lin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.78 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 3.8% | — | 5.21 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 511 | -0.57 | — | — | — |
| Eddie Campbell L 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.37 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.29 | 5.08 | 250 | 85 |
| Luis Lugo L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.42 | 12.8% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .288 | 4.42 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 131 | -1.00 | 4.16 | 622 | 83 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 104 | 83 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.16 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | .252 | 4.74 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 113 | -0.42 | 3.21 | 332 | 83 |
| Trey Ball L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .367 | 4.75 | 14.4% | 5.3% | 65 | -0.40 | 4.75 | 437 | 82 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 80 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 79 |
| JoJo Romero L 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.75 | 15.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .328 | 5.32 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 16 | +0.57 | 2.68 | 584 | 79 |
| Yohander Méndez L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.14 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 4.2% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 477 | 79 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.3% | .328 | 5.58 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.57 | 5.01 | 165 | 79 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 12.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .329 | 3.49 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 113 | -1.34 | 3.35 | 311 | 78 |
| Jalen Beeks L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.34 | 15.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | .308 | 3.63 | 22.3% | 13.3% | 387 | -1.71 | 1.73 | 967 | 78 |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 4.7% | .321 | 3.98 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 184 | -1.43 | 3.61 | 409 | 78 |
| Luis González L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 12.4% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .386 | 3.21 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 164 | -1.49 | 3.05 | 416 | 77 |
| Stephen Tarpley L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.68 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.46 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 157 | -1.22 | 2.75 | 397 | 77 |
| Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 17.4% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .354 | 3.31 | 25.2% | 16.4% | 131 | -1.54 | 2.22 | 594 | 77 |
| Jake Zokan L 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 76 |
| Nate Smith L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 14.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% | .268 | 4.17 | 16.6% | 9.4% | 150 | -0.53 | 4.17 | 288 | 76 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 75 |
| Victor Payano L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.99 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .288 | 4.63 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 120 | -0.36 | 3.81 | 341 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 165 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 1.41 | 5.33 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |