Yu-Min Lin
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 23
LHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2029
ERA5.36
FIP5.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.1%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%6.7%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2029
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 14 | 14 | 56 | 226 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 28.7% | 11.7% | 1.0% | 2.72 | 2.72 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 20 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 24 | 24 | 121 | 496 | 140 | 48 | 10 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 1.8% | 3.86 | 3.60 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | AAA | Reno Aces | 21 | 21 | 104 | 452 | 101 | 38 | 14 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.05 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | 23 | 23 | 102 | 481 | 85 | 60 | 18 | 15.6% | 13.1% | 4.4% | 6.64 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Reno Aces | 3 | 3 | 11 | 56 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 12.6% | 24.4% | 2.0% | 6.35 | 6.20 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 78 | 49 | 15 | 18.1% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 5.36 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 113 | 485 | 86 | 62 | 16 | 17.7% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.46 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 99 | 53 | 18 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 115 | 55 | 19 | 20.3% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 141 | 594 | 123 | 57 | 20 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.82 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 144 | 606 | 126 | 58 | 21 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 125 | 58 | 21 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 140 | 592 | 122 | 57 | 21 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 117 | 56 | 20 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 112 | 55 | 20 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 126 | 532 | 106 | 54 | 20 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 99 | 52 | 19 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 93 | 50 | 19 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 86 | 49 | 18 | 18.8% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 5.36 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 78 | 46 | 18 | 18.4% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 5.49 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 85 | 395 | 1711 | 337 | 197 | 48 | 19.7% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.44 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 866 | 171 | 100 | 24 | 19.7% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.44 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yu-Min Lin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 18.1% | 11.4% | 3.6% | — | 4.91 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 395 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 97 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 91 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 90 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 90 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.21 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .299 | 5.17 | 20.3% | 1.7% | 53 | -0.04 | 3.45 | 325 | 89 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 88 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 88 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 87 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | .269 | 8.07 | 11.6% | 1.8% | 13 | +3.67 | 4.40 | 233 | 87 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | .252 | 4.87 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 113 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 332 | 87 |
| Eddie Campbell L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.06 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.31 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.25 | 5.06 | 250 | 87 |
| Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.12 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.32 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.80 | 2.44 | 604 | 86 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 86 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .318 | 3.31 | 24.2% | 15.8% | 322 | -1.15 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 86 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 85 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 85 |
| Matt Wilkinson L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.2% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 223 | 84 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 84 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 84 |
| Patrick Wicklander L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.99 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .327 | 5.09 | 15.1% | 0.1% | 45 | +0.10 | 4.89 | 254 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $8M | $19M | +$11M | ||