Yu-Min Lin — OGILVIE

Yu-Min Lin P Reno Aces

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%15.6%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL4550

CMD4045

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	226	91	22	2	100%	4.0	28.7%	11.7%	17.0%	1.1%	2.72	2.75	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	56	226	91	22	2	100%	4.0	40.3%	9.7%	30.5%	0.9%	2.72	1.50	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	496	140	48	10	100%	5.1	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	1.8%	3.86	3.60	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	496	140	48	10	100%	5.1	22.3%	10.9%	11.4%	1.8%	3.86	3.60	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	121	496	140	48	10	100%	5.1	28.2%	9.7%	18.5%	2.0%	3.86	3.05	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	452	101	38	14	100%	5.0	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	3.3%	4.05	4.54	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	104	452	101	38	14	100%	5.0	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	3.3%	4.05	4.54	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	104	452	101	38	14	100%	5.0	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.1%	4.05	4.00	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	23	23	102	481	85	60	18	100%	4.4	14.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.6%	6.64	5.78	—
2025	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	23	23	102	481	85	60	18	100%	4.4	14.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.6%	6.64	5.78	—
2025	22	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	23	23	102	481	85	60	18	100%	4.4	17.7%	12.5%	5.2%	3.7%	6.64	5.50	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	27	25	122	550	91	59	11	93%	4.5	13.7%	9.7%	4.1%	2.2%	5.39	4.37	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	27	25	122	550	91	59	11	93%	4.5	13.7%	9.7%	4.1%	2.2%	5.39	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	ARI	27	25	122	550	91	59	11	93%	4.5	16.5%	10.7%	5.8%	2.0%	5.39	4.16	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	12	50	8	6	2	100%	6.0	15.6%	11.1%	4.5%	3.6%	5.56	5.56	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.6%	11.1%	4.5%	3.4%	5.45	5.45	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	134	600	99	65	13	—	—	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.1%	5.40	4.48	+0.7
FULL	23	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	15.6%	11.1%	4.5%	3.4%	5.45	5.07	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	161	679	121	70	24	100%	5.5	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.5%	5.31	5.23	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	30	30	175	738	141	73	26	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.5%	5.11	5.03	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	175	739	147	72	26	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.7%	10.2%	3.5%	4.98	4.93	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	172	728	146	71	25	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	3.5%	4.95	4.95	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	29	29	172	728	145	72	26	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	3.6%	5.00	5.03	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	27	27	165	695	136	70	26	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	3.8%	5.10	5.16	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	155	653	126	68	26	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	4.0%	5.24	5.34	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	78	329	59	34	11	100%	5.6	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	3.3%	5.20	5.12	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	121	511	98	50	17	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.3%	5.00	4.92	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	142	600	120	58	20	100%	5.9	20.0%	9.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.88	4.83	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	25	25	149	629	126	61	21	100%	6.0	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	3.3%	4.84	4.84	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	26	26	154	650	129	64	22	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	3.4%	4.89	4.92	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	25	25	150	633	124	64	22	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.1%	9.5%	3.5%	4.99	5.05	-0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	143	604	116	63	23	100%	6.0	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	3.7%	5.12	5.22	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		158	158	938	3960	773	396	136	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.4%	4.97	4.60	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	165	84	29	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.0%	9.5%	3.4%	4.97	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		109	107	506	2205	401	227	60	98%	4.6	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	2.7%	4.70	4.37	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	872	159	90	24	98%	4.6	18.2%	10.3%	7.9%	2.7%	4.70	4.37	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yu-Min Lin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	15.6%	11.1%	3.6%	—	5.06	19.0%	9.0%	511	-0.50	—	—	—
Eddie Campbell L 2015 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	13.5%	10.7%	3.2%	.315	6.31	13.7%	-3.8%	140	+1.26	5.05	250	87
Luis Lugo L 2017 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	12.8%	10.3%	3.9%	.288	4.47	18.6%	8.6%	131	-0.97	4.29	622	86
Mitch Horacek L 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP	4.75	17.1%	9.1%	3.5%	.306	3.97	17.9%	8.6%	248	-0.78	3.21	466	84
Trey Ball L 2017 · 5.19 FIP	23	SP	5.19	14.7%	11.0%	3.5%	.367	5.00	14.4%	5.3%	65	-0.19	5.00	437	83
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.77	17.6%	4.3%	113	-0.35	3.19	332	83
Scott Moss L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	15.3%	8.4%	2.7%	.307	3.97	24.1%	9.8%	151	-0.39	3.83	457	82
Danny Garcia L 2017 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	13.4%	7.7%	2.6%	.357	4.61	16.0%	9.8%	93	+0.25	4.36	225	82
Yohander Méndez L 2018 · 5.20 FIP	23	SP	5.20	17.0%	9.1%	4.3%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	477	81
JoJo Romero L 2019 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	15.5%	9.8%	2.9%	.328	5.49	25.4%	10.5%	16	+0.89	2.64	589	81
Nate Smith L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	23	SP	4.70	14.7%	7.9%	3.3%	.268	4.23	16.6%	9.4%	150	-0.47	4.23	288	80
Cameron Bishop L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP	4.65	16.6%	13.9%	2.2%	.316	3.42	23.8%	11.5%	66	-1.23	2.86	305	80
Jalen Beeks L 2016 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	15.1%	10.1%	3.4%	.308	3.70	22.3%	13.3%	387	-1.25	1.71	967	80
Luis González L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP	4.88	12.4%	11.8%	2.4%	.386	3.32	24.1%	14.7%	164	-1.56	3.15	416	79
Jesse Biddle L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	12.9%	11.4%	2.3%	.329	3.45	23.1%	13.9%	113	-1.29	3.35	311	79
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	79
Jason Wheeler L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SP	4.69	12.5%	6.9%	3.2%	.315	3.90	16.5%	10.6%	263	-0.79	3.63	401	78
Max Fried L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	18.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.09	2.56	1,435	78
Stephen Tarpley L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	15.7%	9.9%	2.5%	.292	3.50	23.5%	12.2%	157	-0.92	2.78	397	78
Brooks Gosswein L 2022 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP	5.13	14.7%	14.8%	2.5%	.328	5.61	15.2%	-2.7%	66	+0.48	5.13	165	77
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	164	19.0%	10.1%	1.40	5.14
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45